The 2023 Wimbledon ended when Carlos Alcaraz beat Novak Djokovic 3:2 in Men’s Singles Final on July 15. Alcaraz was not in the match during the first set but reemerged afterwards. Djokovic was visibly tired at the end of the second set and the whole third set, allowing Alcaraz to take charge, and the outcome was never really in doubt. No matter how great Djokovic is, you can be 25 only once, and currently Djokovic’s best weapon, his mental advantage over the two generations of players after him, is no more against Alcaraz. Alcaraz’s 60+ winners are twice of Djokovic’s. Djokovic fought possibly as hard and well as he could under the conditions, but the contest was not as close as the score indicated.
This brings back the old question: is Djokovic the GOAT now that he has collected 23 GS and probably more before he quits, and will Alcaraz be the GOAT?
There is a loose GOAT view, and there is a strict GOAT view (Sept 13, 2021 blog). In the loose view, we can always have a GOAT up to date, and annotate a new one whenever the timing is right. In the strict view, GOAT must have staying power, must withstand the tests of time; sure, GOAT can change, but the (new) GOAT must have done something significantly different and better than everybody among peers and in history. So the strict view will rather have no GOAT than having to crown new GOATs every 5 years. The bar is high.
In the strict GOAT definition, therefore, if one has to have a GOAT in men’s tennis, it will be the big 3 rather than pinpointing only one. Considering the careers of the big 3, their GS numbers and the head-to-head records are the products of luck and age differences more than anything else such as skills. Federer is unlucky because Nadal is left-handed. If Nadal were right-handed, even with the same forehand topspin and athleticism, Federer would have beaten that version of Nadal. Nadal is unlucky because he is sandwiched between Federer and Djokovic, two of his equals. Djokovic is the luckiest of the three because he has nobody after him, and he is younger than the other two. While Djokovic’s head-to-head records are better, they are barely above 50%, and much is due to Federer and Nadal getting old. Same with their GS numbers. In other words, Djokovic does no better than Federer and Nadal, the differences merely by chance.
A more objective comparison is looking at other sports. For baseball Bath Ruth is the GOAT, any doubts are manufactured. Track and field or at least sprints, Usain Bolt. For the reasons, just see how much different Bath Ruth and Usain Bolt distinguished themselves among their peers, beating everybody by “miles”, and their records still in conversations today. American football, Tom Brady. Badminton, Lin Dan, practically the big 2 or even big 3 in tennis combined. Were one of the big 3 getting close to 40 GS, there will be no debate in men’s tennis. Even women’s tennis, Steffi Graf is still more the GOAT than Serena Williams. Serena gets one more GS, but played much longer than Graf because she had the records in mind, whereas Graf retired from tennis when she lost interest and had no more goals. But Graf was still OK to play, having lost the Wimbledon Final as essentially her last match. Were Graf dragged on like Williams, 25 GS would be easy.
Basketball has murky territories: Wilt for personal stats, Jordan, LeBron, or someone else? Then in men’s table tennis, is Ma Long the GOAT? In terms of wins and records, Ma Long is clearly above anybody else, but is it enough for distinction? Head-to-head, check. Winning streaks and in important matches, check. Two Olympics Golds, Ma Long all alone. Three straight World Championships? One person had done it in modern era, and Wang Liqin has also three, albeit no consecutively. From a strict GOAT standpoint, Ma Long is borderline. If he wins one more Olympics Gold or World Championship, he will be GOAT since there is little chance another later person will match that. But Ma Long winning another big one is not going to happen. Have to settle that there is no GOAT before him; if there is one after him, Ma Long has set a very high bar.
A curious side issue is that why tennis players like the big 3 in their mid 30s still dominate younger players, yet great badminton and table tennis players cannot. Even Lin Dan was no GOAT caliber when he was over 30. An answer is the serves. In tennis you can serve big and score an easy point, saving you a lot of energy. The relative long breaks in games and points help, too. But serves are a nonissue in badminton, as you win by rallying, which requires stamina, “old” guys lagging behind young guns. Further, you don’t have much time between points to rest. Table tennis has the no hidden serve rule, eliminating much the advantage from the old days. And even more than badminton and tennis, table tennis demands fast reflexes, youth always trumps aged. Of the big 3 in tennis, Federer and Djokovic have good serves, which is why they have aged better than Nadal.
Back to the question: will Alcaraz be the GOAT? The mere fact that Alcaraz enters the discussion is astounding. After the big 3 it is hard to imagine anyone will ever be as good, but so quickly came Alcaraz since 2022, who clearly combines the best of the big 3, some areas even better. His both wings are as balanced as Djokovic, but he runs as willingly and fast and his forehand as strong as Nadal. Then even at full speed he hits shots as naturally as Federer. So much power and so much touch and feel at the same time. Alcaraz even has the best drop shots and the best lobs in the game. You see good drop shots, and you see good lobs, but never from the same player. Until Alcaraz.
The answer is wait 10 years and we will tell. A lot can happen, like injuries, etc. At this point he needs more experience, like knowing when not to run down every ball. But by 2033 if Alcaraz is close to 30 GS he will sure be the single person GOAT.
