tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33808967423185279282024-03-15T18:12:38.300-07:00SSPNSSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.comBlogger137125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-8188470627312903182023-07-19T12:15:00.000-07:002023-07-19T12:15:55.205-07:00Wimbledon 2023 and the GOAT debate<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml><o:DocumentProperties><o:Revision>1</o:Revision><o:Pages>1</o:Pages><o:Lines>1</o:Lines><o:Paragraphs>1</o:Paragraphs></o:DocumentProperties></xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml><o:OfficeDocumentSettings></o:OfficeDocumentSettings></xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml><w:WordDocument><w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel><w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery>0</w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery><w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery>2</w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery><w:DocumentKind>DocumentNotSpecified</w:DocumentKind><w:DrawingGridVerticalSpacing>7.8 磅</w:DrawingGridVerticalSpacing><w:PunctuationKerning></w:PunctuationKerning><w:View>Normal</w:View><w:Compatibility><w:AdjustLineHeightInTable/><w:DontGrowAutofit/><w:BalanceSingleByteDoubleByteWidth/><w:DoNotExpandShiftReturn/></w:Compatibility><w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom></w:WordDocument></xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml><w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true" DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99" LatentStyleCount="260" >
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Normal" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 7" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 8" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 9" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 7" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 8" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 9" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 7" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 8" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 9" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Normal Indent" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="footnote text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="annotation text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="header" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="footer" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index heading" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="caption" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="table of figures" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="envelope address" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="envelope return" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="footnote reference" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="annotation reference" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="line number" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="page number" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="endnote reference" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="endnote text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="table of authorities" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="macro" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toa heading" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Bullet" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Number" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Bullet 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Bullet 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Bullet 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Bullet 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Number 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Number 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Number 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Number 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Title" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Closing" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Signature" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Default Paragraph Font" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text Indent" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Continue" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Continue 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Continue 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Continue 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Continue 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Message Header" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Subtitle" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Salutation" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Date" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text First Indent" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text First Indent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Note Heading" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text Indent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text Indent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Block Text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Hyperlink" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="FollowedHyperlink" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Strong" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Emphasis" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Document Map" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Plain Text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="E-mail Signature" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Normal (Web)" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Acronym" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Address" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Cite" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Code" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Definition" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Keyboard" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Preformatted" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Sample" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Typewriter" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Variable" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Normal Table" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="annotation subject" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="No List" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="1 / a / i" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="1 / 1.1 / 1.1.1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Article / Section" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Simple 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Simple 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Simple 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Classic 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Classic 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Classic 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Classic 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Colorful 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Colorful 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Colorful 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Columns 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Columns 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Columns 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Columns 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Columns 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 7" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 8" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 7" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 8" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table 3D effects 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table 3D effects 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table 3D effects 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Contemporary" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Elegant" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Professional" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Subtle 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Subtle 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Web 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Web 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Web 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Balloon Text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Theme" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Placeholder Text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="No Spacing" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Paragraph" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Quote" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Intense Quote" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
</w:LatentStyles></xml><![endif]--></p><h3 style="margin-left: 0.0000pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.8300; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-left: 0.0000gd; text-indent: 21.9500pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">The 2023 Wimbledon ended when </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Carlos Alcaraz </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">beat </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Novak Djokovic</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> 3:2 in Men’s Singles Final on July 15. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Alcaraz</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> was not in the match during the first set but reemerged afterwards. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Djokovic</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> was visibly tired at the end of the second set and the whole third set, allowing </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Alcaraz</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> to take charge, and the outcome was never really in doubt. No matter how great </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Djokovic</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> is, you can be 25 only once, and currently </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Djokovic</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">’s best weapon, his mental advantage over the two generations of players after him, is no more against </span></span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Alcaraz</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Alcaraz</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">’s 60+ winners are twice of </span></span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Djokovic</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">’s. </span></span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Djokovic</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> fought possibly as hard and well as he could under the conditions, but the contest was not as close as the score indicated. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></h3><h3 style="margin-left: 0.0000pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.8300; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-left: 0.0000gd; text-indent: 21.9500pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">This brings back the old question: is </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Djokovic</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> the GOAT now that he has collected 23 GS and probably more before he quits, and will </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Alcaraz</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> be the GOAT? </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></h3><h3 style="margin-left: 0.0000pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.8300; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-left: 0.0000gd; text-indent: 21.9500pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">There is a loose GOAT view, and there is a strict GOAT view (Sept 13, 2021 blog). In the loose view, we can always have a GOAT up to date, and annotate a new one whenever the timing is right. In the strict view, GOAT must have staying power, must withstand the tests of time; sure, GOAT can change, but the (new) GOAT must have done something significantly different and better than everybody among peers and in history. So the strict view will rather have no GOAT than having to crown new GOATs every 5 years. The bar is high.</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></h3><h3 style="margin-left: 0.0000pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.8300; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-left: 0.0000gd; text-indent: 21.9500pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> In the strict GOAT definition, therefore, if one has to have a GOAT in men’s tennis, it will be the big 3 rather than pinpointing only one. Considering the careers of the big 3, their GS numbers and the head-to-head records are the products of luck and age differences more than anything else such as skills. Federer is unlucky because Nadal is left-handed. If Nadal were right-handed, even with the same forehand topspin and athleticism, Federer would have beaten that version of Nadal. Nadal is unlucky because he is sandwiched between Federer and </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Djokovic</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">, two of his equals. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Djokovic</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> is the luckiest of the three because he has nobody after him, and he is younger than the other two. While </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Djokovic</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">’s head-to-head records are better, they are barely above 50%, and much is due to Federer and Nadal getting old. Same with their GS numbers. In other words, </span></span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Djokovic</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> does no better than Federer and Nadal, the differences merely by chance.</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></h3><h3 style="margin-left: 0.0000pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.8300; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-left: 0.0000gd; text-indent: 21.9500pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">A more objective comparison is looking at other sports. For baseball Bath Ruth is the GOAT, any doubts are manufactured. Track and field or at least sprints, Usain Bolt. For the reasons, just see how much different Bath Ruth and Usain Bolt distinguished themselves among their peers, beating everybody by “miles”, and their records still in conversations today. American football, Tom Brady. Badminton, Lin Dan, practically the big 2 or even big 3 in tennis combined. Were one of the big 3 getting close to 40 GS, there will be no debate in men’s tennis. Even women’s tennis, Steffi Graf is still more the GOAT than Serena Williams. Serena gets one more GS, but played much longer than Graf because she had the records in mind, whereas Graf retired from tennis when she lost interest and had no more goals. But Graf was still OK to play, having lost the Wimbledon Final as essentially her last match. Were Graf dragged on like Williams, 25 GS would be easy. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></h3><h3 style="margin-left: 0.0000pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.8300; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-left: 0.0000gd; text-indent: 21.9500pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Basketball has murky territories: Wilt for personal stats, Jordan, LeBron, or someone else? Then in men’s table tennis, is Ma Long the GOAT? In terms of wins and records, Ma Long is clearly above anybody else, but is it enough for distinction? Head-to-head, check. Winning streaks and in important matches, check. Two Olympics Golds, Ma Long all alone. Three straight World Championships? One person had done it in modern era, and Wang Liqin has also three, albeit no consecutively. From a strict GOAT standpoint, Ma Long is borderline. If he wins one more Olympics Gold or World Championship, he will be GOAT since there is little chance another later person will match that. But Ma Long winning another big one is not going to happen. Have to settle that there is no GOAT before him; if there is one after him, Ma Long has set a very high bar. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></h3><h3 style="margin-left: 0.0000pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.8300; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-left: 0.0000gd; text-indent: 21.9500pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">A curious side issue is that why tennis players like the big 3 in their mid 30s still dominate younger players, yet great badminton and table tennis players cannot. Even Lin Dan was no GOAT caliber when he was over 30. An answer is the serves. In tennis you can serve big and score an easy point, saving you a lot of energy. The relative long breaks in games and points help, too. But serves are a nonissue in badminton, as you win by rallying, which requires stamina, “old” guys lagging behind young guns. Further, you don’t have much time between points to rest. Table tennis has the no hidden serve rule, eliminating much the advantage from the old days. And even more than badminton and tennis, table tennis demands fast reflexes, youth always trumps aged. Of the big 3 in tennis, Federer and </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Djokovic</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> have good serves, which is why they have aged better than Nadal. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></h3><h3 style="margin-left: 0.0000pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.8300; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-left: 0.0000gd; text-indent: 21.9500pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Back to the question: will </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Alcaraz</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> be the GOAT? The mere fact that </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Alcaraz</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> enters the discussion is astounding. After the big 3 it is hard to imagine anyone will ever be as good, but so quickly came </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Alcaraz</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> since 2022, who clearly combines the best of the big 3, some areas even better. His both wings are as balanced as </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Djokovic</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">, but he runs as willingly and fast and his forehand as strong as Nadal. Then even at full speed he hits shots as naturally as Federer. So much power and so much touch and feel at the same time. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Alcaraz</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> even has the best drop shots and the best lobs in the game. You see good drop shots, and you see good lobs, but never from the same player. Until </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Alcaraz</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></h3><h3 style="margin-left: 0.0000pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.8300; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-para-margin-left: 0.0000gd; text-indent: 21.9500pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">The answer is wait 10 years and we will tell. A lot can happen, like injuries, etc. At this point he needs more experience, like knowing when not to run down every ball. But by 2033 if </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Alcaraz</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> is close to 30 GS he will sure be the single person GOAT. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></h3><p> </p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-38521411051454469792023-05-22T20:02:00.004-07:002023-06-02T19:01:24.293-07:00Sudirman Cup 2023: China gambled and survived, and technical analyses<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml><o:DocumentProperties><o:Revision>1</o:Revision><o:Pages>1</o:Pages><o:Lines>1</o:Lines><o:Paragraphs>1</o:Paragraphs></o:DocumentProperties></xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml><o:OfficeDocumentSettings></o:OfficeDocumentSettings></xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml><w:WordDocument><w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel><w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery>0</w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery><w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery>2</w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery><w:DocumentKind>DocumentNotSpecified</w:DocumentKind><w:DrawingGridVerticalSpacing>7.8 磅</w:DrawingGridVerticalSpacing><w:PunctuationKerning></w:PunctuationKerning><w:View>Normal</w:View><w:Compatibility><w:AdjustLineHeightInTable/><w:DontGrowAutofit/><w:BalanceSingleByteDoubleByteWidth/><w:DoNotExpandShiftReturn/></w:Compatibility><w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom></w:WordDocument></xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml><w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true" DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99" LatentStyleCount="260" >
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Normal" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 7" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 8" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="heading 9" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 7" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 8" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index 9" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 7" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 8" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toc 9" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Normal Indent" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="footnote text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="annotation text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="header" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="footer" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="index heading" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="caption" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="table of figures" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="envelope address" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="envelope return" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="footnote reference" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="annotation reference" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="line number" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="page number" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="endnote reference" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="endnote text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="table of authorities" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="macro" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="toa heading" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Bullet" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Number" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Bullet 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Bullet 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Bullet 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Bullet 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Number 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Number 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Number 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Number 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Title" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Closing" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Signature" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Default Paragraph Font" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text Indent" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Continue" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Continue 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Continue 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Continue 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Continue 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Message Header" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Subtitle" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Salutation" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Date" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text First Indent" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text First Indent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Note Heading" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text Indent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Body Text Indent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Block Text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Hyperlink" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="FollowedHyperlink" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Strong" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Emphasis" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Document Map" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Plain Text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="E-mail Signature" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Normal (Web)" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Acronym" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Address" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Cite" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Code" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Definition" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Keyboard" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Preformatted" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Sample" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Typewriter" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="HTML Variable" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Normal Table" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="annotation subject" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="No List" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="1 / a / i" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="1 / 1.1 / 1.1.1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Article / Section" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Simple 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Simple 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Simple 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Classic 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Classic 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Classic 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Classic 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Colorful 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Colorful 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Colorful 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Columns 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Columns 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Columns 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Columns 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Columns 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 7" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid 8" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 7" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table List 8" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table 3D effects 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table 3D effects 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table 3D effects 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Contemporary" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Elegant" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Professional" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Subtle 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Subtle 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Web 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Web 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Web 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Balloon Text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Grid" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Table Theme" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Placeholder Text" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="No Spacing" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="List Paragraph" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Quote" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Intense Quote" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light List Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="99" SemiHidden="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6" ></w:LsdException>
</w:LatentStyles></xml><![endif]--></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Sudirman Cup has had a history of over 30 years, but the 2023 version (Suzhou, China, May 14-21) is one of the most dramatic if not THE most dramatic. Two reigning Olympics champions got injured and retired during quarterfinal matches, completely ending their teams’ hope. And the host China survived tough tests, first against Indonesia, then barely escaped Japan, then almost fell into the same hole against South Korea in the Final. Much is due to the the first match, mixed doubles, and the Chinese choice of mixed double pairs. Consequently, Chinese public opinion railed against the coaches; the coaches are not infallible, but the prevailing thought is wrong.</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Ironically, China’s mixed doubles are considered China’s strongest point. Zheng Siwei/Huang Yaqiong are the best in the world and ranked No. 1 almost continuously for the past 5 years. The second pair Feng Yanzhe/Huang Dongping (Huang being the reigning Olympics champion) has a good record against all the major opponents not named Zheng/Huang. The third pair is young but with a lot of potential and just won the Asian Championship a few week back. So what can possibly go wrong?</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">The answer is that Zheng/Huang in 2023 are not as dominant as in 2022, either due to age or a drop in forms. During 2022 they were winning most matches 2:0, leaving opponents with little chance. But so far the short 2023 season has seen a lot of 2:1 and even comebacks. No doubt everybody senses that, including the Chinese coaches. In the group stage against Singapore HYKT/TWHJ, the first set Zheng/Huang were down 7:11, 9:15, 18:20, before winning 22:20. The second set was 21:19, not a cake walk either. HYKT/TWHJ were “winning” by fast exchanges at the net and quick smashes whenever possible. While it was just a group stage match, it foretold things to come. </span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">The same strategy was employed even better by the Indonesian pair RR/WGE during the quarterfinals, as WGE was much taller than Huang and dominated the net more. Zheng/Huang had no chance in the first set, 13:21, and was down 9:13, 11:17, 14:19 in the second. Then Zheng/Huang hit fast and flat to RR/WGE, inducing many errors into the net. After losing the second set, RR/WGE lost their energy and quickly the third set. </span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">The win is a must for China because Indonesia is the weakest in mixed doubles. Had Indonesia stole the first point, the whole thing could go 3:2 either way. The second match, men’s singles, Shi Yuqi vs Ginting, was still crucial. Shi has an excellent record against Ginting, but Indonesia picked Ginting because: 1. their last two meetings were 1:1; 2. Ginting is in good shape, just winning the Asian Championship; 3. the other Indonesian Christie plays better against Shi historically, but had lost in the group stage, so is probably not at his best. Ginting was leading the first set throughout, 15:9, 18:12, and 20:18, before running out of gas. There is a reason why Shi plays well against Ginting: both are attacking players, but Shi, being much taller, has a wider reach and better defense. Ginting tried to neutralize it by smashing at Shi’s body, which worked a couple of times in the first set, but no more as the match progressed. After Shi’s win, the women’s singles ran the course naturally. </span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Even though Zheng/Huang won, it sounded a warning bell for China, and the coaches must have realized that Zheng/Huang are no longer automatic and durable. Hence the pick of Feng/Huang against YK/YN of Japan. The Chinese public opinion denounces it as a wrong decision, but it is only a hindsight after Feng/Huang lost. </span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">The fact that </span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Zheng/Huang are not at their 2022 peak and Feng/Huang had beaten YK/YN twice comfortably made it an easy and sensible choice. </span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">In the match it was clear that Feng/Huang could have prevailed if Feng had been calmer. In the first set Feng/Huang was leading most of the time, caught up by YK/YN at the end, and Feng served out to give YK/YN a soon-converted set point. The second set Feng/Huang were leading all the way and won. The third set they were leading even more, 12:6, 17:11, 19:15, 20:18. Then Feng served out again at his match point. Feng’s hands were visibly shaken on TV and legs gave away left and right, so the loss was entirely predictable even before the last shuttle dropped. </span><b><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">But in an alternate universe, Zheng/Huang could still have lost to Japan, then Feng/Huang would perform even worse against Korea, an even tougher opponent.</span></b><b><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Three hours later, with Japan leading 2:1 came the most dramatic, everyone-talking-about match of the tournament: men’s doubles, Liu/Ou vs Hoki/Kobayashi. The first two sets were evenly contested. The third set Hoki/Kobayashi had the clear upper hand, leading 18:12, 19:13, 20:16. One more point, Japan in the Final. Then Liu/Ou scored the next 6 points to achieve the most improbable comeback ever in Sudirman Cup history. Did Hoki/Kobayashi choke? Not necessarily. Sure, they lost 6 straight points, including 4 match points, but they didn’t give away any silly errors; the credit should go to Liu/Ou, who managed to make zero mistakes in fast exchanges during those 6 crucial points. Contrast that to </span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Feng/Huang</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> in the mixed doubles in their own match points. If Hoki/Kobayashi surrendered a win, so did </span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Feng/Huang 4 hours earlier. Still, the loss by </span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Hoki/Kobayashi was more devastating, deflating the Japanese team and making the women’s doubles a nonissue.</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">So far so good for the Chinese coaches, despite the most scary drama to the Final. But their choice for the Final was the real problem, again notwithstanding the result. </span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; font-weight: normal; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Zheng/Huang to play was a no-brainer. They were rested and the best there is. Nobody would pick Feng/Huang or anybody else. But Shi for men’s singles was a gamble. Chen Yufei for women’s singles was also questionable, albeit justifiable.</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Shi had played in the quarterfinal, coming back to beat Ginting. He played an even longer match in the semi, coming back to beat Naraoka, a mere 18 hours ago. All maximum pressure matches. Shi is the MVP of the Sudirman Cup 2023, even discounting the Final. But Shi has never been a stamina guy. While a tired Shi is still better than Lee YG of Korea, the Chinese coaches were running an unnecessary risk. It showed. The second set saw Lee much stronger than the first set, leading 7:1 early, and Shi visibly tiring. Had Lee stole the second set, he could have won the third set as well. China should have picked Li Shifeng, the reigning All-England champion. Li’s playing style is very consistent, nothing flashy, but makes few mistakes, a good match and favorite against any Korea men’s singles, the only weak spot for Korea. Li is no newbie either, having played in team events in 2021 and 2022 and performed competently at crucial stages. </span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Of course Shi did win, making the selection question moot. But why gambled when you had a sure hand? Especially considering what happened earlier, the mixed doubles match, Zheng/Huang vs Seo/Chae. After Seo/Chae won the see-saw first set, Zheng/Huang were clearly in shock, 3:9 right away in the second set. Credit to them to right the ship fast and mount another comeback. Still down 16:19 and 19:20, before winning the next 3 points to avert defeat. The third set Seo/Chae were eerily like RR/WGE of Indonesia.</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">So what is the moral here? First, based on their performance during the week, Zheng/Huang were no sure bet against YK/YN either. Second, had Zheng/Huang lost to YK/YN and China still went into the Final, China would surely pick Feng/Huang, who could lose to Seo/Chae as well. Third, Zheng/Huang are world No 1 for a reason: you have to play over 100% to beat them, and if you let the opportunity slip by, you will have no energy sustaining the third set. But fourth, had China lost the mixed doubles, Shi Yuqi would have played his third straight full pressure match in 3 days, No guarantee he would have enough energy or play better than Li Shifeng, especially when Lee YG would have been fully motivated. </span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">The third match, Chen Yufei was a surprise pick against An SY. An SY is the best player in 2023, and Chen just lost meekly to </span><span><a href="https://www.livescore.in/player/yamaguchi-akane/pKuBkeNb/"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Yamaguchi</span></a></span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> 18 hours earlier. China could have selected He Bingjiao, but the coaches probably reasoned like this: 1. Anybody is an underdog against An SY, Chen or He. 2. Every match is a new match, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Case in point, </span><span><a href="https://www.livescore.in/player/yamaguchi-akane/pKuBkeNb/"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">Yamaguchi</span></a></span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"> already lost twice in the tournament, but still beat Chen easily yesterday. 3. The fact that Chen lost fast actually meant she was still physically fresh. 4. Chen matches up OK against An. In terms of playing styles they are the same, rallying players, and both read each other’s shots well. Chen has the advantage of being taller and covering more space. An has the advantage of being younger and becoming faster. In recent matches An evolves by attacking more and winning. So the strategies used and executed would determine the outcome.</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">This match turned out to be quite telling in badminton thoughts. Chen arguably played the best and fastest in her life. Chen was a pure rallying player when she first came out. Then she improved attacking in 2019, which enabled her to threaten the best players. Yet in 2021 the Tokyo Olympics saw her reverting to the old defensive style in the Final and winning the Gold. She has then maintained the same passive mode ever since, losing more and more to the top opponents. But in the match against An she was attacking again, at the earliest chances, even starting from services and service returns. Such a strategy was so apparent and consistent that Chen used it even at the last five points of the match.</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">In comparison, An was passive until about the last 10 points of the match, by then it was too little too late. Not certain why, because An’s rise in 2023 coincides with her more frequent smashes. Maybe Chen’s attacking first made it hard for An to attack. Maybe it was her strategy to tire out Chen before attacking in the third set. Or maybe An didn’t play to her full potential because of the pressure with Korea down 0:2? Regardless, one can argue that Chen played her best, and An did not.</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">One last point: why did Chen’s attack win, while Tai TY lost to An in the quarterfinal, considering Tai is a stronger attacking player than Chen? One explanation obviously is every match is a new match. And expectation and strategies differ among players. But another reason may be that Chen’s and Tai’s attacks are different. Chen’s attacks are mostly smashes. Tai uses tight dropshots at the net coupled with smashes. Tai’s deceptive net shots are less a threat to An because An is willing to run. When you drop a netshot from the back court, if your opponent retrieves it, she will likely return with a net shot, and you must rush to net from the back, spending a lot of energy, so Tai naturally makes more errors at the net, which happened at the last points in her Olympics Final and again in the quarterfinal against An. In contrast, at least in this match, Chen attacked early, which saved her energy, and she intercepted the shuttlecock early and was able to smash often from mid court, which was more effective. In other occasions she pulled An to one edge of the court and then smashed/dropped wide cross court, another scoring formula. In sum, Chen’s win was due to her proactive strategy and An’s inability to adjust. It will be quite interesting to see whether Chen keeps it up, or returns to the old, boring style in the future.</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0.0000pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p></p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-87746884757433202932023-02-19T19:47:00.002-08:002023-02-19T19:47:33.832-08:00ChatGPT: close, but no cigar<p><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">If there is one buzz word in the past three months, it must be ChatGPT. This is the fastest, actively downloaded application ever, 1 million in 5 days, and 100 million in 2 months. There have been AI tools, such as AI drawing, or even AI in photography for years now, but ChatGPT is different because it needs no training and is as simple as searching with google, while yielding answers more detailed, organized, and useful than google, in virtually every area. Due to this unique nature, ChatGPT is going to be one of the watershed moments for AI in human history.</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">There have been a lot of hypes about ChatGPT, most justifiable. Many educational institutions have now banned students using ChatGPT, since it will do their homework for them, often times quite adequately. ChatGPT can give you answers to most if not all subjects, and those answers are at least plausible, in an intelligent and coherent manner. Thus, people are crying that certain professions will lost all their jobs. But this obviously depends on how good ChatGPT answers are.</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">At this moment, it is clear that ChatGPT is very good or proficient enough pertaining to questions with well defined rules or knowledge. For example, coding, with well defined grammars and structures, and excel, which has finite formula and programming. ChatGPT can also give you believable recipes, CVs, business plans, and steps on getting better at tennis, since there has been years and years of evolving yet consistent information available.</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">But ChatGPT is far from capable of doing a few other things, mostly involving creativity and new scientific knowledge. ChatGPT may write you stories, even mimicking certain authors’ styles, which may be good enough for homework assignments or just amusement purposes, but the contents aren’t going to be anything special or usable for any novel publication. Worse, if you ask scientific questions, not those kinds in the textbooks, but in active research areas, in hope for some literature synthesis and AI perspective, you will be utterly disappointed. ChatGPT answers, language still presentable, are just a sequence of words that are generalized for similar question/answers but likely completely useless or wrong scientifically. ChatGPT even made up references to support its answers: when I go to check its references, maybe 90% are nowhere to be found. Some fake references don’t even support the claims by ChatGPT. But more importantly, one has to wonder where ChatGPT gets these references from and how? Does ChatGPT know how to cheat too?</span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-spacerun: 'yes';">So ChatGPT is not yet ready for prime time, and the current product is already showing worrying signs. It will get better progressively, but whether it can truly overcome the above problems remains to be seen. Another issue is: as there are fake news, there will be fake AI as well, “fake” in the sense that AI can be manipulated to be reliable on certain subjects but deceiving on others. Fake AI will give fake answers that fool at least many people without the ability to know better or simply wanting to believe because AI looks so real! A scenario is ChatGPT dominates the field, but it gives wrong answers while people act on them. The other scenario is there are multiple AIs that feed diverging groups of users with different answers in certain subjects. The same thing is already playing out daily, e.g., in the traditional and social media, and it is certain AI will be another, future divider. How will AI such as ChatGPT will impact the world? It won’t be tidy for sure. </span><span style="font-family: \0022serif\0022; font-size: 12.0000pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span></p><p></p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-51969785072812633622022-12-25T19:05:00.040-08:002022-12-25T20:51:46.328-08:00COVID-19 Consensuses in China<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">China
faced a tough time in Dec 2019/Jan 2020 and again three year later.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The difference is that for the first one
people didn’t know what to expect, but for the second one the public do, even
when the loss in 2022/2023 will be much higher.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Unlike my Nov 1, 2022 blog posited when there was no consensus on DZ at the time, in less
than 2 months’ time a few consensuses have taken hold in China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first one is that DZ did save lives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The contrast between Oct 2022 and Dec 2022
couldn’t have been starker in terms of infections and deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the second one is that opening up is the
only way going forward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>DZ was too
costly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even DZ supporters, a
significant number, who oppose the current policy, admit that once it is
opened, it is not possible to return to DZ.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The third consensus is that most people can recover at home, hence the
fear factor is much diminished.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
fourth consensus is that many will die, but that is the cost of moving beyond
the pandemic.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The fourth
consensus is the reality nonetheless vexing the public.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Should or could the government have done
anything, or done better, to prepare for the shift from DZ or to lessen the
impact?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The only one definitive is that
the government should have pushed vaccination harder (Dec 2, 2022 and Dec 10,
2022 blogs).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Other than this
is speculative.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
biggest complaint right now it is the government moved away from DZ too quickly,
without a smooth transition to opening up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It does seem like it, but the actionable question is: what exactly can the
government do to make the transition smooth besides vaccination?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There have been debates on this in the
media.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A school of thought is that you have
either DZ or full relaxation, but no middle ground.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If DZ is a 9, what the rest of world is doing
is 1, then the current China is 2, but there is no 5 or 6, because 5/6 is not
feasible to begin with.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In other words,
little can the government do to satisfy those who want the safety of DZ minus
the restrictions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just have to bite the
bullet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Short-term pain is better than long-term.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The other
position is that we should have tried 5/6.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Even if it doesn’t work, the weeks and months of trying it will soften
the blow going into 2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>5/6 presumably means
very limited lockdowns, less frequent RNA testing, health code requirements
going into crowded places, etc, which my previous blog had hoped for.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We will never know the answer now as it
was never attempted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Still, DZ being ineffective
against Omicron didn’t stop the government from doing it for most of 2022, then
why did it go straight to 2 without ever trying 5/6?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The last
position is that the government failed to prepare the necessary medicines to
handle the massive infections, such as ibuprofen, etc.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But this kind of situation happens all the
time around the world, and no country or government can avoid it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to a famous US general and President,
plans are useless, planning is essential.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If you want everything prepared well before you do anything, which is
subjective and easily turned into circular thinking, you will never do anything since you can never
prepare everything well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>China is a big
country with 1.4 billion people, so bound to have shortage somewhere sometime
no matter what.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The bottleneck is seldom
the production but the distribution and panic buying.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed, the first two weeks saw the most
empty shelves, which in late Dec is far less an issue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Even though we now have vaccines and Omicron is less deadly, a situation better than 2020 and 2021, everything
happens all at once, family members are sick altogether, creating a new danger.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">While most
people stay home, even 0.5% going to the hospitals will squeeze the system,
leading to unnecessary deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> If you didn't have Omicron before you went to the hospital, once you did, you would have it. </span>The ventilation systems in Chinese buildings
could be upgraded to avoid long distance infections, perhaps another area the
government should have done better.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">At this rate China appears to aim for 2-3
months to go through what the rest of the world went through in the last 2-3
years in order to move past COVID-19.</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The exact infection and death numbers are impossible to come by because
they are too fragmented and localized, so have to wait for months and check the
excess death data for 2022 and 2023.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Local cities and provinces are giving very high numbers which are only
surveys and estimates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People use home
Ag tests and don’t report their results, or have the symptoms but don’t do Ag
tests, so it is impossible to tell if all with the cold/flu symptoms are
Omicron infections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This winter is cold
in much of China, so a busy common cold/flu season as well, which would
infect 200 million or more people. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Worse, China doesn’t have a tradition of
tracking cold/flu.</span></p>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">There is abundance of information about COVID-19
experiences and death announcements in the Chinese media, which helps foster
the consensuses and educate the public.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The only thing missing in almost all cases is that it would have been
better and more informative if their vaccinated status is shared.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> So far of all the dozens if not >100 death reports, I have seen only one ever mentioning vaccination status (not vaccinated). </span>For this round of infections vaccination is
unfortunately too late for many, but 6 month from now when the immunity wanes,
it will help to vaccinate and boost sooner, again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>How China recovers from these tough 2-3 months will be closely watched. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><p></p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-20689745300138655322022-12-10T20:36:00.000-08:002022-12-10T20:36:09.004-08:00Dynamic zero no more<p></p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Since the
announcements of 20 points on Nov 11, 2022 and especially near the end of Nov,
the term of COVID-19 DZ policy has totally disappeared from Chinese media
reports.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While it has never been
officially pronounced gone, it is 100% over.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Now the policy is not even new DZ or soft DZ.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, it is called “optimization”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>DZ’s end is long overdue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It should have been abandoned on June 1, 2022
when Shanghai emerged from its Omicron wave, if not in March or April, when the
danger of Omicron was better understood.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Instead, the public and economy suffered unnecessarily for at least 6
more months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If China had had diverted only
5% of its energy used for mass testing to vaccination, China would have been in
a much better shape facing Omicron right now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It is not that vaccination in China is bad, but it could have been much
better: most Chinese could have got the 4<sup>th</sup> shot (now only 3<sup>rd</sup>),
and elderly (>80-old now only 40%) at least three shots by Dec 2022.</span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dec 7,
2022 saw 10 more official policy changes for wider opening, with the most
significant one being that most infected can now isolate at home, a common
sense apparent to everybody months ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
official media are now doing the mass education work, quoting experts saying no
Omicron fear.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One has to wonder where
were they during the summer?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">While it
is good to follow the science, the rushes of policy changes have jolted the
society, leading to much hope as well as confusion, naturally.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The official, daily infection numbers are no
longer meaningful, just like the rest of the world, when many people are taking
Ag tests at home and won’t report their results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are gushes of personal Omicron experiences
on the Chinese news now, which serve good purposes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The reality is that the public and
governments haven’t found a new balance between COVID and normal lives under
the so-called optimization yet, which is barely one month old.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most old barriers against COVID-19 are
dismantled overnight, but without any specific rules and safeguards for post-DZ.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, there are fewer RNA testing
sites, and many mixed samples are tested positive, affecting a wider population
of people because if one person in a 10-sample tube is positive, the other 9
people will receive an orange or red health code, must take the tests again,
and can’t do anything until confirmed negative.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The outcome should have been expected, and the solution is one person,
one test.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">But because of the hassle, fewer people would want to take the RNA or Ag
test, leading to more unknown positives and, hence, more undercurrent fear in
the society.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here lies a downward spiral
dangerous for people’s health and the economy, and only time and policy
adjustments will stem the chaos</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,
naturally</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Because of the earlier
and bumpy adoption of “optimization” policies in Nov and Dec, my numbers in the
Dec 2, 2022 blog have become outdated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>For 2022 the real infections, reported and unreported, in China can be
over 10 million, not the old 3 million.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>For 2023 the number will be higher than 100 million.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But most Chinese won’t be infected in 2
months’ time as some “experts” predicted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is because many people are still afraid of COVID-19 and will
venture out less, and other people will realize more unknown positives and
danger out there and be more careful around.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It is likely that Omicron will infect and kill the same ballpark number
of pre-2020 cold/flu people in China, dwarfed by the would-be excess deaths due
to DZ.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>China shouldn’t swing from one
extreme to another.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>China can’t go back
to DZ, or even a soft DZ.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead,
optimize the “optimization”.</span></p> <br /><p></p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-41725437082749698082022-12-02T18:53:00.000-08:002022-12-02T18:53:28.536-08:002023: will it be better or worse than 2022?<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Now is almost the end of 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Qualitatively, 2022 is the same as 2021; quantitatively,
a bit different.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Biden is still doing
the same, cold/hot warmongering two years in a row as Trump, and no change of
that in 2023 or beyond.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Russia war
is an escalation but also an extension of what has been going on over there since
2014.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>COVID-19 is still here, albeit less
deadly than in 2020 and 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thanks to
vaccination and Omicron, only 0.1% or less of the infected die now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not an insignificant number, as 300-400
people die in the US every day, but societies around the world have decided it can
stomach the loss, or it is not worth the extra measures to contain the
virus.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The only standout is China and
its DZ policy, but major changes have come throughout 2022 and particularly on
Nov 11, 2022 </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">(<a href="https://china.huanqiu.com/article/4AQUNteWR5p">https://china.huanqiu.com/article/4AQUNteWR5p</a>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More opening is expected in the coming
months, which will be a big positive for 2023.</span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Chinese government made a big
mistake of not preparing for a non-DZ policy during and after the Shanghai wave
in Mar-May 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For one, they should
have realized long ago that DZ, defined by lockdown and mass testing, is never good:
bad for the economy, for people’s life and livelihood, and bad for people’s
health.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Widespread and prolonged DZ
simply exchanges other deaths for COVID deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Thus, lockdowns should have been reserved for the most extreme cases, yet
in 2022 it was applied liberally in many cities in China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lockdown is no Chinese invention, for it has
been used throughout human history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But city-wide
RNA testing is definitively a Chinese invention, and likely the most stupid
one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then by May 2022 the government should
have realized, based on data around the world as well as in Shanghai, that the
current COVID-19 poses a lesser threat than before.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the widely used Chinese vaccines work,
and more and newer vaccines are coming up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>So at that point, China should have sped up vaccination drives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact China did, during the height of
Shanghai episode, but it fizzled after the Shanghai wave passed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>China also failed to educate the people no more
fear of COVID.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hence, it was a costly
waste of at least 6 months’ time in 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The official media have endlessly
justified DZ, leading to much of the public believing the constant danger of COVID,
and the local governments strictly reinforcing DZ.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The social media have more diverse views and
discussion, but no major impacts policy-wise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Thus, when the Chinese central government relaxed DZ in the summer and again
on Nov 11, 2022, there is no new public consensus, leading to confusion and
uneven adoption at the local levels. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The confusion and resistance to the
new DZ is perfectly natural, as many Chinese do support the “old” DZ, or at least
accept it is a necessary evil.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only time
and practice will change their mind.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
20 points (<a href="https://china.huanqiu.com/article/4AQUNteWR5p">https://china.huanqiu.com/article/4AQUNteWR5p</a>)
on Nov 11, 2022 will set in over time, and the debates and application in the
next 3 months will be necessary and crucial to convince the public that a new DZ,
or soft DZ, whatever it is called, is coming and will stay.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If anything, the 20 points will foster a
healthy debate, and that alone would have been worthy enough.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">As major and comprehensive as the
Nov 11, 2022 items are, additional stipulations and loosening measures will surely
follow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One glaring blind spot so far is
the lack of nation-wide position for the public what if one is tested positive
in the future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thus, the 20 points could
have been 21 points, with the 21<sup>st</sup> point actually being the most important
one. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">This 21<sup>st</sup> point should
have the general public as the ultimate audience (the 20 points are mostly policy
orders).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It could inform the people,
through other means in detail obviously, no more fearing COVID and panicking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It could stress the importance of
vaccinations (this has been included in the other items but worth emphasizing
again).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It could instruct people what to
do if tested positive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like most people
just stay home, no more isolation away; no need to rush to the hospitals unless
the serious cases, which will be determined by medical professionals and hard physiological
numbers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some of these contents will certainly
be included in future government announcements, but this 21<sup>st</sup> point has
the most important task of consensus-building, and the earlier the better.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">DZ has its problems, so will a new
or soft DZ, which will inevitably lead to increased infections, but not the
situation in the US, as China will continue to suppress COVID-19 and isolate
cases, only no more widespread lockdown and testing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Currently China reports 30-40K daily
infections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2022 there could be 3
million total infections, fewer than 1K deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>So in 2023 China may have 50-100 million infections, 50-100K deaths, part
of the previously natural and most overlapping with the common cold/flu deaths
(Nov 9, 2022 blog).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hard numbers won’t lie,
and nothing unusual here.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Local,
sporadic reports of bad stories will emerge and be amplified if a consensus is
not formed fast enough, which is the most potentially serious problem. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The bottomline is that no smooth sailing no matter
what, but the ship’s got to sail. The Chinese economy will recover. Inflation will be higher but still much less than the US in 2022. People will be happier.<br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Throughout 2022 many advanced
countries, the US and in Europe, have reported excess deaths, ~ 10%, after
counting COVID.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The causes are unknown,
but the indirect disruptive effects by COVID may be a big factor (Nov 1, 2022 blog).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Time will tell whether excess deaths apply to
countries that only report after Dec 31.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>How China fares will be closely watched.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></p>
<p></p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-48330959394235970862022-11-08T23:11:00.006-08:002022-11-11T00:05:52.387-08:00A debate of COVID-19 dynamic zero policy in China <p></p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--></p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
</p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">DZ is the official COVID-19 policy
in China. Previous blogs on 4/17/22, 7/12/22, 11/1/22, etc have
argued against continuing this policy in 2022. Here is a new one, with
clear references to and point-by-point debates of the official justifications
for DZ.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">There have been many, uniformed,
official and media documents supporting DZ, with the same, redundant talking
points during the many months in 2022, so suffice to take this editorial as an
example: </span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">《</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“</span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">动态清零</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">”</span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">可持续而且必须坚持》</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">, by </span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">仲音</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">, published in</span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">《人民日报》</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">on
Oct 11, 2022. Its web versions are ubiquitous, e.g., <a href="https://www.blogger.com/"><span style="color: blue;">https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1746473260184521826&wfr=spider&for=pc</span></a>.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Its arguments for DZ are
consistent. 1) </span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">我国是一个有着</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">14</span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">亿多人口的大国,加上地区发展不平衡,医疗资源总量不足,放松防控势必令易感人群感染风险加大</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">. Meaning: China is a country with 1.4 billion people.
Development is uneven across the country, with insufficient medical
resources. 2) </span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">衡量一种病毒是否严重,将传播率和致病率两者相乘,是一个重要指标。奥密克戎的传播力远大于流感和此前的新冠病毒毒株,且部分奥密克戎变异株亚分支的免疫逃逸能力出现明显增强,对老年人和基础病人群仍具较大威胁。</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Omicron is too infectious and still poses a threat to the
elderly and sick. 3) </span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">我国</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">60</span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">岁及以上人口达</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2.67</span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">亿,老年人群体数量多,如果选择</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“</span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">躺平</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">”</span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">,疫情蔓延开来势必造成人民生命、财产更严重损失,其所带来的公共卫生风险难以估量。</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">There are over 267 million elderly Chinese, too many to
relax. 4) </span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">一方面我们不能放松防控,搞</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“</span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">一放了之</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">”</span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">;另一方面我们也要警惕过度防疫,坚决防止简单化、</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“</span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">一刀切</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">”</span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">和层层加码等现象。</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">We can do better with DZ.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">First, a few items must be
noted. This editorial no longer mentions that individuals infected with
Omicron face more danger than with previous variants. It also doesn’t say
anything about younger people (majority of the population) at all.
Vaccines fail completely to factor in the conversation. What it shows is
that fearmongering is losing its market in China, and vaccination rates have
become so high that they can no longer be used as excuses for DZ.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Now to the actual arguments.
As argued also consistently in previous blogs, while and even if these #1-4
points above are true, they still don’t lead to the conclusion that DZ is
necessary.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Against Point #1: Development is
uneven across the big country, and not enough medical resources, China was, is,
and will always be like that. 20 years ago, China was like that. Now,
China is like that. 20 years later, China will still be the same.
Does it mean DZ for 20 years or forever? That would be crazy. Since
it is also a subjective argument, the exact same thing can be said about every
other big country in the world. Thus, development is also uneven in the
US, medical resources not enough, at least in many parts of the US as
well. That hasn’t stopped almost every country on Earth from opening up
in 2022, many or most of which are actually in worse shapes than China in terms
of medical infrastructure and readiness. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Points #2 and 3: Omicron can infect
too many people, and the elderly and sick will suffer. But is DZ the only
way to control Omicron? Can we do away with DZ (its current
implementation) and still limit infections, while at the same time have a safe,
healthy, and working society? China never has an open risk-reward
assessment and debates, so points 2 and 3 are aimless: who doesn’t want to
prevent </span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">疫情蔓延</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> (pandemic
spreading), but why exactly is DZ a must? </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Point 4: We can do better with
DZ. Sure, but how? The official documents and announcements have
been so vague during 2022 that nobody knows for sure. DZ has been equaled
to lockdown, mass testing, code scanning, and restriction of movement
everywhere. Local governments have the liberty to enact their own
policies, and different places have different versions of DZ and
implementations. As thousands of officials have been sacked for not
controlling COVID in the past 3 years, of course everyone has the incentives to
do the harshest DZ possible, which does stop COVID, but also wreck the
economy. Since wrecking the economy is not a cause for dismissal, which
way the officials choose is a no brainer. People have called for the
central government to publicize clear and detailed guidelines for what to do
and what not to do regarding the current DZ policy, but this is
impossible. For one, impractical. Development is uneven across
China, remember? Local situations differ, which calls for different
solutions locally. And policy must have flexibility. Most
importantly, DZ is what the central government demands, and lockdown, mass
testing, etc, have been endorsed by the central government. So whatever
else the locals can do is at most adding 10 to 100. Local governments
won’t make your life easier unless DZ is relaxed from the top. Granted,
DZ in Nov 2022 is looser than in March 2022, but too many people are still
suffering for too long, as the daily national infection number inches toward
10K again. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Besides these official reasons, a
significant number of Chinese do support DZ, and they have the 5<sup>th</sup>
reason for DZ: China must have DZ unless COVID-19 subsides and/or there is a
cure for COVID-19 infection. This point is based on an unfounded fear of
COVID-19 and a misunderstanding of the situation and medicine. The world
(outside China) is not going to control COVID-19, so COVID-19, if it ever goes
away, will go away on its own, which nobody knows when. It could be 5
years, 10 years, or never. In terms of medicines to treat COVID-19,
outside of vaccines, few drugs have ever been developed that cure viral
infections. HCV drugs are essentially the only ones. Despite
decades of efforts no drugs can cure common cold, flu, etc, so banking on a
COVID-19 cure is worse than waiting for a miracle. Thus, point #5 is pure
wishful thinking and completely untenable. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The official debates about DZ in
China have a false dichotomy, pitting DZ against “</span><span face="宋体" lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">一放了之</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">”, or doing nothing. However, from DZ to doing
nothing there is a large grey area, a huge middle ground. <b>So in
addition to arguing against something (DZ), the blog also argues for something</b>.
<b>It is based on the thesis that DZ is unnecessary and does more harm than
good under the present COVID-19 situation</b>. Further discussions about
what to do require a few sets of understandings and facts be established. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Firstly, consider the public fully
vaccinated/boosted. The coverage is China is over 90% now. Chinese
vaccines definitively work, and they have been free and easily accessible for
almost two years, and can be boosted if needed. No country will reach
100%; if you don’t have one now, you will never have one, and societies must
move on, not waiting for everybody forever. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Secondly, return to the pre-COVID
era, not to a time when there is no risk from any infection, which doesn’t
exist. Omicron must be compared to and balanced against all other
diseases. We can’t get 100% safety, never did, never will. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Thirdly and lastly, Omicron
infection in the said population poses a very low risk. Few people
(<10%) develop serious outcomes, and vaccines reduces serious outcomes by
90% or more, and Omicron death rate is ~ 0.1% or less. This number has been
verified over and over around the world for one full year by now. Thus,
much of the need for DZ rests on the fear of COVID-19 severity and Omicron
infectivity, which is demonstratively outdated and false in 2022. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Here is a helpful comparison.
In the US cold/flu typically kill 40-50K every year. By the same
standard, China loses 200K per year. If the mortality rate is 0.1%, it
means that every year 200 million Chinese get the cold/flu. Considering
the population density in China is much higher than the US, the actual
infections and deaths are likely even higher in China. In other words,
hundreds of millions of Chinese got the cold/flu every year before 2019 and
nobody said a word. Then why should China do DZ now for something that is
similar? Can China survive with that many infected with Omicron, or will
China ever get even close to that many infections with Omicron? </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Based on the above analyses, a
starting point, away from DZ but also not doing nothing, is that China is OK if
able to limit COVID-19 to 100 million per year. This is the middle ground
policy, and it is unlikely China will ever have 100 million infections per year
anyway. For 2022, with DZ and maximal efforts and resources, China still
has ~ 1 million infections, hence having 10-50 million infections is a
reasonable compromise. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">How to achieve this middle ground
policy, and why is it doable or better? For one, the policy will keep
elements of DZ. People get tested maybe once a week, more frequently or
less depending on the local infection positivity. Positives will isolate
at home and stay away from public places until negative, reinforced by health
codes. Only the seriously sick are admitted to hospitals. Educate
the elderly and sick to avoid crowds. Lockdown will be in place for only
the most extreme cases and limited in scale, place, and time by 50% or
more. Most medical resources now used for the meaningless mass testing
and quarantine will return to patient care. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The ONLY downside of this policy is
that COVID-19 deaths will increase. 10 million infections could translate to
10K deaths. But most of them will overlap with the otherwise 200K
cold/flu deaths, so it is a wash. Unless the Chinese government also
declares a new war and DZ against cold/flu, this is actually the old
normal. We have never lived in a no-risk environment, right? But
the upside will be tremendous. The economy will recover. People
will have freedom. Patients with severe COVID or diseases other
than COVID will be better served. <b>Overall more lives will be saved,
and more will live happily. </b></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A fear among Chinese is that if
China abandons DZ and tries the middle way, the middle way won’t hold and will
inevitably regress to uncontrollable COVID. This fear can be easily
swayed. China has established a strong COVID system and standard,
supported by high public vaccination rates and knowledgeable medical
staff. The most difficult part, the worst obstacle, however, is to
educate the public: why DZ no longer, why the new policy, why no more
fear. If you want your freedom, get tested periodically. No big
deal if you are infected, just stay away from others until you are clear.
It will take hard work and time to pivot from DZ, and China has wasted too much
time on this. But it is much more worthy than continuing down the path of
DZ.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b>PS</b>: It seems that prayers have been
answered, as China has just updated its DZ policy on Nov 11, 2022 (<a href="https://china.huanqiu.com/article/4AQUNteWR5p">https://china.huanqiu.com/article/4AQUNteWR5p</a>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The changes are major, significant, and all
around. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Among the most important ones,
no more city-wide mass testing, and lockdown will be restricted to small areas,
no more international flight suspension, and shorter isolation time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are much different from what are being practiced;
while the new strategy is still called DZ, who cares what it is called if the
changes are real and meaningful.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It remains
to be seen how the local governments follow the instructions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More importantly, how the Chinese public
reacts to the sure increase in COVID-19 cases in the coming months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The government has so far failed to educate
the people the true, low risk of COVID, ensuring that there will be hard
resistance to the turnaround among many Chinese.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is certain that the official media will now
change the tune, but altering perception and allaying the 3-year-old fear will
take time. </span></span></p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> <br /></span><p></p>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"></span></span></span><br /><p></p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-30736326842961456272022-10-31T22:42:00.052-07:002022-11-03T21:56:05.974-07:00Too much time has been wasted in China<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
Omicron variants have produced new COVID-19 infection patterns around the
world: in 2020 and 2021 there were infection waves coming and then gone in typically
a month, but in 2022 Omicron infections drop from the peak, but stay much
higher than in 2020/2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sometimes it
feels like a wave lasts two or more months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Take HK as an example.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>HK infections
started up in June, 1K, peaked in Sept over 10K, only dropped to 5K two months
later.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A reason may be that there are
multiple Omicron variants circulating simultaneously, all able to infect and
re-infect, so two or more waves overlap and pile up.</span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Since the
worst in Shanghai passed in April 2022, almost every province in mainland China
has been in a low-level COVID-19 wash, with national daily infections centering
around 1K.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Recently the cases are slowly
climbing above 2K, so local lockdowns and mass testing return in October.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Compared to March and April 2022 the
situation is handled better this time, due to lessons from the Spring:
the lockdown areas are now smaller, and testing easier.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But facts remain that economy suffers
unnecessarily, people’s living suffers unnecessarily, and mass testing is still
a huge waste of time, material, work, energy, and money and awfully polluting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">More
disappointing is the fact that China has so far failed to prepare the people
for the inevitable DZ reversal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
reversal doesn’t mean acting like the US at all, but it does mean significant
relaxation of the lockdown and testing policies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because China has never gone anywhere near 0 in
over 300 days this year, clearly DZ is a misnomer and not going to work: it has
never been 0 in 2022 and will never be 0 in 2023.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the same time GDP which could have grown
5% will be lucky to grow at 3% this year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>China’s official media justify DZ by saying it saves many more lives with
a higher GDP growth than the US.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>True,
but irrelevant: China is not competing with the US and the world in 2020 or
2021 any more, but in 2022 and beyond.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
rest of the world has opened up, SE Asia, India, Africa, with faster economy
growth than China and no repeat of the COVID-19 in 2020/2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>DZ is putting China at a major
disadvantage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the expense of the
economy DZ is not even saving that many lives: the excess death in China in
2022 is likely >100K (1%), due to economic hardship, lack of medical care,
and psychiatry problems.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In other words, DZ is simply trading one kind of deaths for another, except that DZ further leads to economy destruction and infringement on individual freedoms. The government
needs to ask: is China or Chinese so different from everybody else in the
world?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">My </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">4/19/2022 blog laid out the
reasons why China can absolutely do well without DZ and steps on how to prepare
for the changes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Which should have been
done much earlier, but half a year later nothing of sort has been done.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Illustrating
this and the natural consequences is a major piece of news that many workers at
the Foxconn factory in Zhengzhou, China have quit and are now walking homes,
some >100 km away (<a href="https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2022-11-01/doc-imqqsmrp4473042.shtml">https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2022-11-01/doc-imqqsmrp4473042.shtml</a>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
background is that Foxconn has a huge factory with >100K workers in Zhengzhou,
where like everywhere in China has had a burst of cases in October.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A few workers were positive, so the company
is moving the infected and close contacts around while at the same time keeps
the machines running.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is what
everybody else in the world is doing right now and a small experiment of how to
live with COVID in China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But many
workers (30%?), who are negative, became so scared that they fled the
factory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">If
the workers left because they were afraid of the lockdown (actual or pending),
it would have been understandable and reasonable to leave.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Foxconn due to its sheer size is doing
things a bit differently than the rest of Zhengzhou and is still operating and
not shutting down internally.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So (most of) the fear
is not for lockdown but for COVID-19, which is terribly misplaced.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>COVID-19 in 2022 is far from COVID-19 in 2020. Assume most workers have got three
COVID shots, and obviously most if not all are young, <50-year-old, then even
if they get infected, few if any cases will be serious, and almost certainly no
one will die.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet so many people are
still so scared of COVID-19, unnecessarily, that they behaved rashly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is the fault of the government and the
media wasting so much time not educating the public the right information,
while spending all their time touting DZ that makes life miserable and destroys
the economy.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">China
has wasted too much time and lost too much with DZ.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many Chinese are against DZ, but many others are
undoubtedly for DZ as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
transition will come, since who can tolerate DZ forever?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you need to do it and everything is in
place, the earlier the implementation, the better.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But without the right information and
preparation, once the government pivots from DZ, there will be a huge amount of
confusion and even resistance in the society, which will again be bumpy and
costly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">PS: There have been monthly
excess deaths in the US, UK, and a few countries in 2022, certain months even
>10%, with reported COVID-19 deaths accounting for only a small percentage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most countries including China don’t report
monthly, so have to wait for the annual data after Dec 31.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We need to see whether this trend holds for
the whole world and figure out the causes, which always takes time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some of the unaccounted for excess deaths may
be untested COVID-19 deaths or due to long COVID-19, but most are likely not directly
virus-related.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The disruption of economy
and society by the pandemic, such as the healthcare system and loss of
qualified personnel and services, could be an important factor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The consensus in the US,
a few misgivings from doctors and scientists notwithstanding, is that the
pandemic is over.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>300-400 people continue
to die everyday, but in effect it is the price the American public, society,
and system have decided willing to pay: just living my life, too bad for the unlucky,
the weak, and the old.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the excess
deaths are real, not some erroneous statistics, then the policies from 2020 to
2022 and beyond could have deeper consequences than meet the eyes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">China is just the
opposite: DZ for COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But why isn’t
DZ for everything else that is bad?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There may have
been a consensus in 2020 and 2021 to control COVID-19, but there is really no
consensus in 2022 that keep doing the same thing over and over is the best way
going forward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some Chinese support DZ,
some oppose it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet things have changed
dramatically in the > 2 years’ time, both in terms of the virus and the
means to handle the disease.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>DZ may
reduce COVID-19 deaths, but its current implementation will amplify other
deaths, bringing down the economy and everything else along the way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the aftereffects of COVID-19 are universal
(no reason to think China is unique), then China is expected to have
significant excess deaths too, over the 1% mark mentioned above.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p> <br /></span></span><p></p>
<p></p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-90006963989939217172022-10-09T18:57:00.001-07:002022-10-09T18:57:27.373-07:00The 2022 Table Tennis World Team Championships<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">ITTF started the commercial WTT a couple
of years back, almost the same time as the COVID-19 pandemic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>WTT is confusing and worse than the previous
Opens format because it turns the venue background black, lighting dark, and camera
angle lower and along the net.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A lot of
time you lose one or both players in the picture when they are retrieving shots
far away from the table, and you hardly see the ball spinning and curving off
the paddles.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These shortcomings are
mitigated during the World Team Championships at Chengdu, China, as there are
multiple cameras from many angles, and the viewing area is vastly expanded.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is expected since this is the signature
table tennis event of the year.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">On Oct 8, 2022 China and Japan met twice,
at the Men’s Semi and later Women’s Final.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>China won both (3:2 and 3:0), but there are plenty of noteworthy dramas,
stories, and strategies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First the
Women’s Final.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The starting match of Chen Meng (CHN) vs Miyuu
Kihara (JPN) is nothing to talk about, except that Japan not fielding the
highest-ranked Hina Hayata was surprising.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Hayata played only once during the whole tournament and barely escaped
with a win in the semi against Germany, so maybe she is injured or not at her
best.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The second match between Wang
Manyu and Mima Ito was much closer and the only competitive one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first three sets were hotly contested,
with Ito attacking and Wang defending all the time: either Ito got a winner, or
she made an error and lost the point.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Not sure if Ito had smashed THIS hard non-stop for so long before.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wang Manyu being much taller and covering a
much bigger space helped her returning a lot of hard shots, winning two out of
three.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Eventually Ito got tired, Wang attacked,
and the fourth set was settled early on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The third match, Sun Yingsha vs
Miyu Nagasaki, however, was the biggest letdown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It started OK, but the level of plays dropped
so quickly that by the third set both players won by silly mistakes gifted by
the opponents, capped and ended with a awful service return error by Nagasaki. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nagasaki played below her level since this was
her first final and high leverage match, and one wonders what if Hayata was
there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Now to the Men’s Semi.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The biggest story for casual audience is Tomokazu
Harimoto won two points, beating Wang Chuqin and Fan Zhendong.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is interesting to dissect how Harimoto
won, especially against Fan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Harimoto
should be 10 cm taller and much stronger than when he came up in 2017.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He used to be strong and quick with backhand
but weak in forehand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One can clearly see
Harimoto growing in body size and improving in techniques.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So a mistake would be to use the old strategy
against a new Harimoto, which was what China did there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The new Harimoto no longer rushes his
backhand attacks and is a more balanced, rallying-type player.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His forehand is still the weaker side, but
since he is taller, he can handle the high arching shots better and defend more
space from his right side.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Quite a few
times Fan hit hard to Harimoto’s forehand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If Harimoto counterlooped he likely would make errors and lose, so he
simply blocked it back, and Fan was caught off-guard and hurt by his own power
coming towards him, hence returned the ball long off the table.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The match was decided by the final moments at
the 4<sup>th</sup> and 5<sup>th</sup> sets with the smallest margin, so this
forehand strategy made a win vs loss difference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It must be noted as well that Harimoto had
better luck, net balls at both sets at the final moments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He had the same luck, net/edge against Wang
Chuqin at the 4<sup>th</sup> set too, helping turn 7:9 to 11:9.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Another story is how Wang Chuqin got the final point
for China, after a loss earlier, in his own, first ever, maximal pressure
event.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wang Chuqin’s weakness is his forehand
rallying ability.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you do three
forehand exchanges with him, he will make an error at the fourth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is how everybody plays him, sending balls
to his left.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He also tends to retreat
from the table more than his teammates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It is OK in normal times since he has power, but at crucial matches when
your opponents are playing well and you are not, being too far away from the
table will make things going downhill faster.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Wang Chuqin was sending forehands long all the time during the Harimoto
match for no good reason, even not in forehand counters, so he was too tense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But he still got his chance at the end of the
4<sup>th</sup> set, until bad luck struck.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Hence it was truly a big question mark how Wang
Chuqin could handle the 5<sup>th</sup> and final match against Togami Shunsuke.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Things didn’t look bright when Shunsuke
rushed to a 9:4 lead in the first set.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Wang was still hitting forehands long, and Shunsuke was more motivated
and forehand blazing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Shunsuke is tall
and fast, runs a lot, has strong loops from both wings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But, he has only one gear, the speedy gear,
and Wang has an upper hand in serve and serve return.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sensing a loss at 4:9, Wang settled down and
cut down his forehand errors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He used
serve and serve return to win a few easy points, then prioritized his backhand to
defend Shunsuke’s loops.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wang’s backhand
is very strong because he can defend, change speed, and turn defense to offense
instantly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By improving his own level
and Shunsuke dropping his, Wang escaped with a win 12:10 in the first set.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wang continued this backhand-oriented
strategy in the 2<sup>nd</sup> and 3<sup>rd</sup> set.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An animated Shunsuke was able to match Wang
till the midpoint at both sets, but he did much more running and looping and
got tired afterwards, and the final scores reflected that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A conclusion is that Wang Chuqin needs to
improve his forehand stability, but he has proven, mentally and physically, to
be dependable at crucial moments.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The biggest story, however, should have been Ma
Long, scoring a point against <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6vu4d2oFhI" title="Highlights | Ma Long (CHN) vs Mizuki Oikawa (JPN) | MT SF | #ITTFWorlds2022"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Mizuki Oikawa
as the 3<sup>rd</sup> single.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This might
be the last World Team Championships for Ma Long. </span></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the 21<sup>st</sup> century we have witnessed
true greats in various sports playing and now their retiring, and Ma Long is
one of them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ma Long at 33 is a shell of
his prime, and he has a glaring weakness to his right, forehand side that
practically yells “Hit me”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everybody,
from matches earlier, India, Sweden, etc, I mean, everybody, constantly attacked
his right table corner, almost sad to see.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Oikawa was no
exception, and he did it perfectly in the first set, scoring half his points
off the strategy. Oikawa would send a ball down the line to Ma’s right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ma either missed it completely, or when he
returned the shot, it was so weak that Oikawa easily hit it to Ma’s backhand
open court to win the point.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">How did Ma Long respond to win the next three
sets?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For the 2<sup>nd</sup> and 3<sup>rd</sup>
sets, Ma upped his backhand exchange pressure to Oikawa’s backhand so that Oikawa
could no longer hit the ball down the line: since the ball to his backhand came
fast and long, if he changed direction regardless, it would go long down the
line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This strategy largely neutralized Oikawa’s
attack on Ma’s well-known weakness.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And
Ma had the advantage in the serve and serve return department, and his forehand</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> cross table</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the 4<sup>th</sup> set Ma
clearly improved his form, and he now hit straight winners even when
Oikawa attacked his right side.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With
this ability there was nothing Oikawa could do.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">On the next day, Oct 9, 2022, China and Germany met
for the Men’s Final, featuring the same lineups from the Semis: why change when
you win?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The difference was Ma Long
became the 2<sup>nd</sup> single, and Wang Chuqin the 3<sup>rd</sup>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Qiu Dang won the only set against China for
Germany, vs Ma Long.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While the results
would have been the same, a safer plan for China should have been picking Wang
against Qiu.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Technique-wise a left-handed
shakehander (Wang) is literally the worst possible nightmare for a right-handed
penholder (Qiu). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ma had the first
three sets against Qiu </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">closer </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">than against Oikawa, even though Ma was leading most of
the way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Again, from the very first
point of the match Qiu attacked Ma’s right side, relentlessly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ma tried to pin Qiu down at his backhand side,
but surprisingly Qiu’s backhand is up to the task, even better than Ma’s, so Ma
won by smaller margins, with his advantage at serve and serve return area. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only in the fourth set did Ma find his
former form and begin ripping winners from his right side, same as in the Oikawa
contest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It seems that Ma Long needs
three sets’ warmup for his movement, then the match became a runaway train.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But playing style-wise Wang Chuqin could have
an easier time against Qiu. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">With a better luck or the absence of bad luck in the
Semi Fan Zhendong would have avoided the first loss of his career at the World
or Olympics Team events.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No biggies though,
as almost everybody, including the best of the best in history, has lost in
Teams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Waldner lost many times.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Liu Guoliang lost two points in 2000 and
China lost as a result.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Kong Linghui
also lost two points, saved only by Liu Guozheng, in 2001.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wang Liqin, Ma Lin, Ma Long, Zhang Jike all
lost once to Boll.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The only world
champion-caliber player who had never lost at the World or Olympics Teams, I
believe, is Wang Hao.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Ma Long hasn’t
lost a Team match for like 10 years or more, and he has played till the finals in
all these years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is as remarkable
as his other achievements, including 3 straight World Singles titles and 2
Olympics Singles Gold medals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ma Long no
longer has the energy to play the 5<sup>th</sup> match, which is why he should
only be the 3<sup>rd</sup> single, unless China thinks 3 and done.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everybody knows how to beat Ma Long: doable
these days, but only if you can execute that winning strategy against Ma’s
countermeasures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A bit like the old
Waldner, vulnerable, but still hard to beat.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Or Roger Federer after 2017.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As
one ages, the legs weaken the first, and Federer could no longer run to his
forehand side as much and fast as he wished.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>So he was more content to stay at his backhand side.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a result, he was no longer rattled by too
many shots to his left and was ready to do it all day long.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With this change in mentality he started to beat Nadal on
hard courts since Federer’s backhand no longer rushed and made as many mistakes
as before.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nadal getting older and slower
contributed to that effect too.</span></p>
<p></p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-55088209014189545832022-10-05T19:44:00.000-07:002022-10-05T19:44:34.189-07:00Christine Guthrie and thoughts beyond<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Christine Guthrie</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> passed away on July 1, 2022 at the age of 77, after a 30-years-long
battle with cancer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She was a researcher
at UCSF who arguably contributed the most to our mechanistic understanding of
mRNA splicing, a fundamental process in eukaryotes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She was well known and respected among biologists
and loved by her trainees, many of who are now authorities in their own
fields.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Journals such as Cell and RNA
have published obituaries and tributes, and a memorial symposium will be held
at UCSF on Oct 28.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Her contribution to science
was immense.</span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">I had seen
her and heard her talks at meetings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now
I can’t miss the fact that she seemed to have no Chinese trainees (students from
China or ABCs), as none of the people writing about her are Chinese, nor were
any Chinese mentioned in their or her writings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is a very surprising and truly unique situation and makes one
wonder why.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Perhaps UCSF is an elite
institution and she was an elite scientist?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But this is obviously not a valid explanation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UCSF has had many Chinese trainees, as well
as other elite schools, and almost all, if not all Nobel Prize winners, and other
prominent scientists, in the US in the last 40 years have had Chinese in their
labs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is why </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Guthrie’s
case is so peculiar.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A few causes can be
speculated.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The first is that Guthrie was 6-foot-tall, and talked
straight and tough and joked (she was kind and supportive at the same time), which
might be a minor shock to the newly arrived Chinese seeking labs right away at
UCSF.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first impression being tough
might have been too intimidating for them even trying to get in, as her being
kind would have to come later when you settled down in her lab.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
second is that a few of her students took a long 7 years to get a PhD, which likely
also presented a warning to later students. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But these two reasons are unlikely the major
ones.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The third is that Guthrie did her most important
work in the 80s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At that time Chinese
students were only beginning to come to the US.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There were simply fewer Chinese then, compared to late 1990s and afterwards.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The fourth and likely the most explanation, however,
is her experimental model, yeast genetics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It doesn’t escape my notice that few Chinese, in the US or China, use budding
or fission yeast as their experimental models. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And this
actually has something to do with the third cause above, too.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Since the mid-1990s genomics has started to overtake
biological research.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Previous work
feasible only in single cells like bacteria and yeast was suddenly doable and became
easier and easier in multicellular organisms such as worms, flies, and mammals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This trend has continued to this date.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Chinese newcomers clearly saw the changes
and opportunities and followed the fads.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Yeast became old-fashion and got ignored as a choice for PhD
studies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So Guthrie having no Chinese trainees
was indeed an oddity but not entirely out of the blue, as many yeast genetics
labs also had few Chinese.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ultimately, it
is a big loss for Chinese, and a big loss for yeast genetics as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p></p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-71473703142645704562022-08-07T10:29:00.000-07:002022-08-07T10:29:16.507-07:00The latest China’s COVID-19 restriction loosened <p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Mainland China
has lifted COVID-19 measures numerous times since the spring.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even though far from completely open to
business, the steps </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">signal</span> real changes and the right direction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But there was one sore spot hardly touched,
i.e., the weeks-long suspension of an international flight into China if a
certain number of passengers tested COVID positive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Until now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>China just announced a modification of the policy (</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><a href="https://news.sina.com.cn/o/2022-08-07/doc-imizirav7089535.shtml">https://news.sina.com.cn/o/2022-08-07/doc-imizirav7089535.shtml</a>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In simplistic words, the new policy is 4
times less harsh than the old one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For
example, in the old days a 5 or 10 positive cases would lead to a 2 or 4 weeks suspension
penalty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in the new policy, a 4% or
8% positive rate will get 1 or 2 weeks, and in a plane with 250 passengers, 4%
is 10 people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This will help normalizing
international travel and economic activities.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Of
all the COVID-19 measures by China, lockdown is the No1 the most hated, mass
testing is No2, and the flight suspension is likely No3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has ruined so many people’s life, money,
time, and emotion, for over 2.5 years, because airfares have skyrocketed, flights
have shrank dramatically, yet passengers who plan months ahead and pay big
money to secure a ticket still don’t know if they can fly or when.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While the policy could have been justified in
2020, when there was no vaccines, in 2021, when vaccines were just being rolled
out and new variants were emerging, or even in Jan 2022, when the more
infectious and less known Omicron was spreading, there is really no
justification for it (or the lockdown, mass testing) since early 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is punishing passengers of the would-be later
flights for the “sin” of those in the previous flights and the airlines for
simply doing their jobs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It became the most disgusting policy when it
was hardly changed while the lockdown and mass testing policies were lessened by early summer. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has already led to
severe disruption of international travel in July, Aug, and Sept 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One can only hope that flights will turn
normal after Oct 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed, this suspension
policy should be abolished right away and replaced with something more
sensible, along with other COVID-19 restrictions such as lockdown and mass
testing. </span></p>
<p> </p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-78890073826745615922022-07-12T09:59:00.000-07:002022-07-12T09:59:06.369-07:00Fluid times for COVID-19 in China<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">China’s COVID-19
situation became the worst in March, mostly in Shanghai, turned the corner in
May, largely subsided in June, and is having a small flareup in July.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But this is not the whole picture.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An equally significant development is the
overall, clear relaxation of COVID-19 measures in China since May, almost
touching every aspect of the COVID-19 responses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Domestically, the nationwide loosening of
testing and travel requirements. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Overseas, allowing more international flights,
more visa applications, easing of tests and health code application, and
shortening isolation periods from 14+14 or 14+7 to 7+3 days, among others.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The shortage of international flights is the
worst problem right now, especially the cancellation, which remains the most
contentious issue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But HK has turned
into a good and practical entry point to the mainland China since May 1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No matter how you describe it, dynamic zero
or not, the policies are no longer the same as in April.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One can say measurably better, a good direction
at least and long last.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">But here is a problem:
why is China making the changes?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If a
good reason is not given, or accepted by the public, what is preventing the
governments from going back to the old way?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is not nitpicking, because as COVID-19 cases rise to the hundreds
again in July, a few places in China are resurrecting the bad, lockdown weapon. You will never eliminate Omicron, it will always turn up here and there, this time and that time, in China. What will China do then? Are the current polices here to stay, getting more relaxed, or tightened?<br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">According to the governments
and media, the official reason for the changes is that Omicron can be detected
quicker than previous variants, so, e.g., we need 3 days instead of 7 or 14
days to find everybody now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, no need
for 14+14, 7+3 is good enough, so is a lesser response.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unofficially, there are too many economic
hardship stories, thus economy is definitively another, truly the No 1 reason
for the new policies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But these narratives
have a huge, insurmountable problem.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">First economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It doesn’t make sense to say because Omicron
can be detected easier, the economy is suddenly getting the priority.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everybody knew Omicron spreads faster before
2022: before you find one case, it already infects many others, which by itself
makes Omicron no less dangerous.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also, everybody
knew lockdown would hurt the economy, in Wuhan in 2020, and even before
Shanghai.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it was done anyway in
Shanghai, and several cities are doing it due to the recent cases, albeit a
softer one, right now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You can’t rule it
out as a last resort for a pandemic, but if you don’t set a clear standard,
what is preventing governments at all levels from using it arbitrarily?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As an integrated economy, even a local lockdown
or restriction can have a widespread impact on the nation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unless the government says, in clearer terms,
that we need to protect the economy unless under the most extreme condition,
these current, sensible changes are on shaky ground.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The central government has already stressed
the importance of economy, yet it also included COVID-19 at the same time, which
makes it 50:50, thereby diluting the message.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Then the reason
that we can detect Omicron in 3 days instead of 7 days: true, but far from the whole
story.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because in 3 days Omicron can
infect as many people as Delta in 7 days, and if Omicron is more pathogenic, it
is still the worse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here is the thing my
previous blogs (3/10/2022, 4/19/2022) had argued that the government and public
must accept, which some Chinese scientists and doctors have also written but
received much less media attention: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Omicron
is not as dangerous, especially 2022 is no longer 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only accepting this truth can the current policy
changes have legs and are really followed through in 2022 and beyond</b>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Mountains of universal
evidence, from every country and region on Earth, says that Omicron/COVID-19 in
2022 is less bad than COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
is due to the characteristics of Omicron and the status of public immunity due
to vaccination and previous infections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Take China’s data in 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There have
been 700K infections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><600
deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><0.1% death rate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consistent with the data from around the
world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Practically the same as seasonal
flu.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is it the goal of the Chinese government
to eliminate seasonal flu, DZ flu, as well?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Compare the 600 deaths
to the immense economic and societal losses due to lockdowns in Shanghai and
elsewhere, it is clear, actually even before they were implemented, that
lockdowns and measures such as mass testing were and are wasteful, stupid
and suicidal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Deaths not due to Omicron
infections but as a result of the lockdown, e.g., from lack of medical
attention, stress, economic hardship, etc, very likely exceed 600.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Lancer paper (</span><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext)">https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext)</a></span></u><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"> estimated the excess deaths
in China in 2020 and 2021 were 13K.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>WHO
had its own statistics (<a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/05-05-2022-14.9-million-excess-deaths-were-associated-with-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-2020-and-2021">https://www.who.int/news/item/05-05-2022-14.9-million-excess-deaths-were-associated-with-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-2020-and-2021</a>),
in which China’s excess deaths were actually negative.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because China has 1.4 billion people and 10
million die every year, 13K or a negative number may just be rounding errors
(3/16/22 blog).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But there is no denying
that many people died without infection but due to COVID-19 measures or
policies, only they were cancelled out by deaths prevented by the measures or
policies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if we calculate the same
for 2022, China’s excess deaths will surely be positive and likely over 10K.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Ultimately,
what are the reasons for these changes which are good and long overdue?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First is economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Second is the late but eventual realization
the Omicron is not that serious.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
government doesn’t want to admit it, because that was known long before
Shanghai, so admitting it means the government made a mistake.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So the government uses the 3 day detection ability
as an excuse instead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Third is the
public is tired of COVID-19 and lockdowns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Much less support for the DZ measures than in 2020 and 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>But
the public still must accept that Omicron is no big deal, living with Omicron
is no big deal.</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fourth is in practice
China gets better at handling Omicron than earlier 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Jan to April was tough, but the medical and
other infrastructures were also setup at the time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nowadays testing can be done anywhere and anytime,
still a hassle but less so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More room
for isolation and treatment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everybody
knows what to do now after the confusion a few months ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fifth is COVID-19 vaccination and drugs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There has been a vaccine push for the elderly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Although since vaccines apparently offer only
months of good protection, and most Chinese got the boosters in Jan-Mar 2022,
it is likely time soon for the 4<sup>th</sup> shot in light of BA4, BA5, and
BA2.75?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">About
vaccines, the Western media like to assert that China adopts DZ because the
government knows Chinese vaccines are no good.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Need the American mRNA vaccines to save the day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A complete nonsense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Look at Shanghai: of the <700K infections,
<600 deaths, >95% (?) deaths were unvaccinated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We don’t know how many infections were
vaccinated or not, but just from normal thinking, the Chinese vaccines prevent
death by over 95%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course, due to the
relatively small death number, the confidence range will be wide.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Chinese vaccines definitively do the job.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Compare to data in Taiwan, this year >4
million infections, >7K deaths, ~3K deaths receiving two or more shots (local:foreign,
mostly mRNA vaccines, ~ 50:50 in the general public).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No case mRNA vaccines are any better at
preventing deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The death rate of
0.2% in Taiwan is a bit high, but since the 4 million infections are an undercount,
unlike in Shanghai everybody was tested multiple times, the real death rate is
likely also 0.1%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Thus,
even if mRNA vaccines are better at preventing infection and death than other
types of vaccines, they are only marginally better, and they come with a bit more serious side effects.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mainland
China has plenty of vaccines already: in addition to the most common inactivated
virus vaccines, approved are the protein and Ad virus vaccines, others are
still being tested.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So China has enough weapons,
and boosters should emphasize protein and Ad virus vaccines to enhance
immunity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Coupled with sensible non-pharmacological
COVID-19 prevention and an altered mindset that Omicron is no big deal, China should
continue the good trend, throw away the old DZ polices, and live with COVID in its
own way. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p> </p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-8243981296187590932022-06-25T11:40:00.070-07:002022-06-27T03:41:32.910-07:00Jimmy Carter the second<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Crises
are a constant in the world, but rarely are there so many all at once in 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We still have the COVID-19 pandemic, a global
economy disaster looming if not already here, the war or wars, and potentially
more wars on the horizon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The worse of
it: there doesn’t seem to be any solution, let alone end, to any of these
crises.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The principal reason is that in
previous crises, e.g., 2008, the whole world was at least ostensibly united
to solve the problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But right now the
world is fractured.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It started with
Trump, and has got worse by Biden.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">There
have been talks of Biden being the second Carter since the end of 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Which is unfair to Carter, as Biden’s
incompetence is at a much higher level.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Biden
was elected as being non-Trump, who was likewise incompetent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trump was incompetent because he was ignorant,
and because of that, only the worst sycophants were willing to serve him, and because
of that, Trump instigated terrible acts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Biden was supposed to be different, and only if he turned away from
Trump just enough, he would have been a success.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the reality is that Biden speaks a
different tone, but behaves the same way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The whole world is a mess because of it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">On
the domestic front, Biden sounds the most different from Trump and the GOP, but
what has he done? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He can blame the
Senate rules all he wants, but Biden has almost nothing to show for and
essentially stopped pushing since the summer of 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Supreme Court, immigration, guns (the latest law is cosmetic), economy,
COVID-19, the stock market, it is hard to point to a positive by Biden, or if he is even trying
to do anything now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">But
the international stage is where Biden truly excels as being absolutely dismal
and practically the same as Trump, if not worse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">Biden is unable or unwilling to have a clean break from Trump, despite </span></span>campaigning implicitly to reverse Trump’s
policies. What did he reverse after 18 months?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>China, Iran, Cuba, and other countries like South
Americans?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nothing: Biden has inherited
Trump’s lies and legacy and fully adopted as his own; as a result, he has kept Trump’s brush
fires burning and may even turn them into forest fires. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
Russian-Ukraine war is the most illuminating example.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In a break from Obama, Trump sent offensive weapons to Ukraine, which has
been the major party violating the Minsk Agreements.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Biden continued to arm Ukraine prior to Feb 2022, encouraging Ukrainian
push to the Russian minority in the East and joining NATO.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once Putin attacked in Feb 2022, Biden
appears to be the one most excited.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All
the policies ensued provide a boon for the arms industry, but hardship for
everybody else: inflation is running higher and higher in the US, shortage has no
end in sight, and people are dying and suffering in Europe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Biden’s
recent $40 billion arms deal to Ukraine received unanimous support by the Dem in
Congress, but a few dozen GOP opposed it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
But don't</span> mistake those dissenting GOP votes as pro-peace since the
majority of GOP still went for the bill. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A GOP president similarly would have had a
few Dem opposing but almost all GOP supporting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>History has shown this pattern time and time
again: there is only one party in the US, i.e., the War Party. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Poor people can’t pay the bills with lost jobs
or over 8% inflation, but rich people have the spare money to survive and may even
get richer, as seen during countless wars and COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Poor people or people overseas die, but since
when have we the rich cared? Biden being a career politician is made of the
same cloth, so of course he can’t escape
the system and its stale mentality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thinking
Biden would be bold or a changed man is always naive and has now been proven so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
convention wisdom is that Dem will lose big in the 2022 mid-term and 2024.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The most recent SC decisions on guns and
abortion have Dem hoping that voters angry with those decisions will stem the
tide in Dem’s favor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is another wishful
thinking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The majority of Americans always
support abortion rights as well as gun controls, even in most red states.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But due to how people vote and not vote and how the local and federal election systems are set up in the US, it has never stopped red states overwhelmingly sending the GOP to the Congress and state legislatures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why is it any different this time?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-59809741531018948242022-04-19T02:26:00.003-07:002022-04-19T08:06:09.279-07:00Choices of responses to COVID-19 in 2022<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">There
are currently robust debates between the strategies of “dynamic zero” and
“living with COVID-19” in Chinese social media.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The traditional, official media decidedly tilt towards “dynamic zero”,
but by answering the question of “living with COVID-19” and explaining why
“dynamic zero” is better, the government recognizes and publicizes the
suspicion and opposition to “dynamic zero” in a large Chinese populace.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">For
any discussion, the terminology first must be clear and unified, yet much talk conflates
the terms and positions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both “dynamic
zero” and “living with COVID-19” are living with COVID-19, only differ on how: the
Chinese government never claims to eradicate COVID-19 (3/16/2022 blog).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For DZ the devil is in the details, and its
extremes are a bottomless pit, with city-wide lockdown and continuous RNA
testing being the most visible, disruptive, and last resorts to achieve
DZ.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Right now, seeing Shanghai as an
example, cities everywhere are doing lockdowns (though not as harsh as
Shanghai) and population RNA testing at the slightest trigger.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thus, most public anger is towards the
implementation of DZ being too wasteful and unnecessary two years into
COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As for LWC, no Chinese is
advocating the UK or US type of COVID-19 response.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, certain measures, like targeted
testing, in door masking, contact tracing or tracking, can stay, even lockdown
of limited areas for limited time is OK under the worst conditions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But city-wide lockdown, closing businesses all
around, and endless city-wide testing over and over, must stop.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>LWC can be designed as a more nimble, humane, and cost-effective DZ. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">So if COVID-19 control on a scale of 0-100, DZ
is 0, the US type is 100, then LWC may be 10.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span>It accepts a low level of COVID-19 circulating and more COVID-19 deaths
than in 2021 or even 2020 (there are more ways to reduce infections and deaths
now than before), in exchange for reducing the overall deaths and surely helping
the economy and the public’s freedom and well being much better than a hard DZ. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">LWC
in theory is a better strategy, but whether it will work is admittedly unknown,
for it has never been adopted in China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Perhaps
HK had attempted it to great effect in 2020 and 2021 until it gets busted in
2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Still, caveats abound: Omicron is
more contagious, HK is always more lax than the mainland, and mainland Chinese
cities had beaten Omicron before.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Shanghai
is a special case whose lesson shouldn’t be applied widely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Which, unfortunately, is happening, as many Chinese
cities are upping their DZ measures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
way it is used across China right now, therefore, DZ is synonymous to lockdown,
and there is no good way to do lockdowns, the bad will always be there and often
overwhelm the good. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Shanghai in fact shows
why DZ is counterproductive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Shanghai’s
first mistake was not recognizing the problem in Feb and early March.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then in late March it ordered the city-wide
lockdown without enough preparation, leading to shortage of supplies and delivery
to people confined to their homes and living quarters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Meanwhile the city tests everybody again and
again, which causes congregation and further transmissions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They try to round up all infections, but 25K
daily infections increase much faster than anyone can ever build shelters, resulting
in more tired people and confusion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
truth, most infected can stay at home and get well all by themselves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet Shanghai wastes so many energies in
testing and shelters that services for other illnesses suffer greatly. Business
disruption also means that basic medical supplies go down, further straining care
inside and outside hospitals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since my 4/16/2022
blog, this Omicron wave has claimed its first 10 lives, but probably dozens or
even hundreds of people have died due to medical care shortage over China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Good to see signs that Shanghai is slowly back to work, but d</span>eaths both due to COVID-19 and due to DZ but
not COVID-19 will rise in the days ahead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Despite
all the well reported deaths, there is no indication of any above normal rate yet
in Shanghai where ~ 560 die every day anyway (4/16/2022 blog), and still no expectation
of any significant extra deaths in Shanghai or China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lest we forget that many countries still have
hundreds of daily COVID-19 deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
death is only one parameter and a rather low bar to cross.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is never a good, moral idea to, or no one should,
restrict the freedom of so many people unless under the most dire situation,
where COVID-19 shouldn’t qualify any more in 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And we can’t just consider what happens in
March and April.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People’s disgust will
last, and a tanked economy will manifest itself and linger for many months and
years to come.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Wuhan lockdown could
be justifiable due to an unknown disease and emergency two years ago, but not this
Shanghai lockdown and the ones currently in other Chinese cities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The actual lockdowns may be short term, but
DZ is long term, so are its many negative effects.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As it stands now, <b>DZ can no longer be separated
from its poor implementation and consequences and is an outdated strategy, for
it places one disease over many others and destroys people’s life and
livelihood in a wholesale and long-lasting manner</b>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Then
why is DZ still dominating?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
government has provided its rationales, endorsed by a few scientists and
doctors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The most talked about reason is
that China has 1.4 billion people, a lower medical service capacity per capita than
developed countries, and a low vaccination rate among the seniors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So even if Omicron is less deadly, with so
many people infected at the same time, the medical community will be squeezed,
leading to millions of deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It must
be stressed that this argument is not analogous to the accusations leveled at China
by the Western MSM and politicians about COVID-19, Xinjiang, and other subjects,
which are lies, damn lies, and fake statistics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It is at least based on facts and suitable for scientific debates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But upon close examination, one can conclude
that either they do not support DZ, or, with extra work, a better alternative
(LWC?) is feasible.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">First
the low vaccination rate among seniors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>How low is “low”?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>90% adults nationwide
have had at least 2 shots, but reportedly 50 million seniors have not been
vaccinated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Shanghai >60% seniors
have been vaccinated, and so far all 10 deaths were unvaccinated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So is there a solution here? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Simple, just do a more thorough vaccination
campaign: it must be much easier and less disruptive than any lockdown!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then you can’t use a low number as an excuse
for DZ or lockdown, but continue DZ even when the number gets higher.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If after some time, a certain number of
seniors still refuse vaccination, will DZ be on forever?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A society should care for but not wait for everybody.
</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Then
the constant fear for a rush to hospitals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But as my 4/16/2022 blog mentioned, whereas Shanghai has among the best
medical preparedness in China, many people still die waiting for care: DZ
claims needed to prevent the rush, but instead it causes it!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>DZ siphons crucial resources for work of
little use, thereby endangering everything else.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What is the solution without resorting to
DZ?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, mandate everybody infected
isolated at home, enforced by community services and health codes, and only
those with serious underlying conditions or symptoms, e.g., oxygen level below
93, can be checked by ambulance and go to hospitals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With <1% or fewer such cases in Omicron, any
Chinese city can handle the load.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Another
thing the government must do is to really drive home the message that COVID-19
is not that dangerous or fearsome, recovered patients are safe and shouldn’t be
discriminated against, and don’t panic to the hospitals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hospitals around the world save lives in
emergencies but if you don’t feel so bad to begin with, hospitals might actually
make you sicker due to cross infection and tiredness.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thus the solution is part new strategy on the
ground and part education. Both the government and public must be more tolerant of COVID-19 just like other diseases.<br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">And
the fear that with so many Chinese, even a 0.1% Omicron death rate amounts to
1-2 million lost lives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But this scenario
is wildly improbable or not as bad as it sounds, and the government and
scientists should give people the full picture.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>India has about 4 million COVID-19 deaths in two years, Africa fewer, but
most deaths are due to Delta without vaccines (<u><span style="color: blue;"><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext)">https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext)</a></span></u>.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>China
has better medical infrastructures, a better COVID-19 containment scheme, and is
highly vaccinated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even with LWC China will
never have a high infection rate, few people will ever need hospitalization, and
even fewer deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not everybody will be
exposed at the same time anyway, and people will adjust their behaviors to
minimize risks even without DZ.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>COVID-19
will drag on for years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once you are
vaccinated or recover from infection, your survival is almost ensured.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So COVID-19 deaths in China will even out over
the years. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2021China had ~ 20K
domestic infections. Assume a vast, 1000X increase due to Omicron and LWC, we
have 20 million infections, which realistically is impossibly high under China’s
COVID-19 containment plans even minus the lockdowns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Assuming 0.2% fatality rate, again a high-end
number for Omicron, we have 40K deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Considering
10 million people die every year in China, 40K is a drop in the bucket with or
without DZ, but only DZ, particularly lockdowns, will bring about many extra deaths
of other causes, economic destruction, and social problems. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">Lastly, how about long
COVID, and the kids?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once more the fears
are often overblown, and we need contexts and perspectives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Kids are the least affected, which we have known
since Jan 2020!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And vaccines will
protect kids.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Kid’s death is very rare: in
the US ~ 1K children have died from COVID-19, but at the same time many more
have died from other causes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Long COVID
is real, but we also know most symptoms will lessen or go away over time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>COVID-19 is not unique at all, because other
illnesses like flu also have long term effects.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Even tennis elbows take months to heal!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Cures shouldn’t be worse than the disease.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lockdown will inevitably lead to
psychological stress in kids.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Which is worse,
mental issues in 100K kids, or one child’s death due to COVID?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hopefully we don’t have to make a choice, and
the way to avoid it is to do away with DZ and adopt a better strategy now. </span><p> </p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-20721066839160845232022-04-16T20:19:00.002-07:002022-04-19T04:59:34.201-07:00The COVID-19 pandemic anew<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">COVID-19
has evolved both predictably and unpredictably for 28 months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Predictably in that we see many parallels in
prior pandemics, unpredictably in that there is also uniqueness in the virus and
human responses. Despite the fast changing pace of the pandemic, including from
not knowing what it was and did to knowing so much about it in just two months,
flying blind to care for patients to the discovery and inventions of treatments
and especially vaccines, and the emergence of many variants, my positions have remained
consistent since Jan 2020, about lockdowns (Jan 26, 2020 blog), disease origin
(May 27, 2021 blog), mass testing (May 12, 2020 blog), data reporting (Jun 3, 2020 blog), and vaccines (Aug 11,
2020 blog).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
first Wuhan lockdown was viewed very critically (Jan 26, 2020 blog). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even though a major, unprecedented move like
that was never easy, there must always have been a better way to handle the
situation, or at least a better way to conduct the lockdown (May 2, 2020 blog).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in Jan 2020 we knew next to nothing about
COVID-19, so a lockdown, no matter how well or poorly conducted, might be a
necessary evil.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This became salient when
later many countries thought to be able to handle COVID-19 better than China failed
miserably.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So Wuhan was bad, but it
could have been much worse for Wuhan or China.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">But
by the same token, the current lockdowns in Shanghai and a few other places in
China are, no better way to put it, an absolute unnecessary evil, idiotic, and
suicidal (March 16, 2022 blog).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For things
have changed so much since Wuhan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite what many in China and the West are claiming,
1. Omicron is not a big threat like the virus in 2020, 2. Chinese vaccines work,
and 3. China is well prepared for Omicron.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Vaccination rates are >90%, and most seniors (>60%) are
vaccinated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are now a few drugs to
reduce COVID-19 severity and death.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>China also still maintains a monitoring, masking, and testing scheme
better than any other countries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All
these ensure that COVID-19 will never run wild in China like in the West, and the
death rate in China will be low, comparable to other causes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Data
bear it out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There have been ~ 400K
infections this year in mainland China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Cases that require especial treatments, like oxygen, are only 1 in 1000.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So far officially two people died in Jilin, but
it can be sensibly argued that they died with, not from COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is expected that infections will rise further,
and real COVID-19 deaths will follow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet
already well over 10 people have died while waiting for treatments not rendered
due to COVID-19 restrictions, and these are just the known minority.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because of the high profile lockdowns, many other
cities with few COVID-19 and not under lockdowns also apply strict, bothersome,
and self-defeating measures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consequently,
economy is suffering terribly, the whole country, not just those under
lockdowns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>China is wasting too much
energy doing things that are hurting itself and yielding little in return.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Then
why does China do it?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Inertia is likely
the primary reason.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wuhan lockdown worked,
right?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So why don’t we do it again
everywhere?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This lazy mentality ignores
everything humans learn and gain since Jan 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is why COVID-19 measures have become even
stricter now than two years ago in China, which is laughable and indefensible,
as if two years’ worth of knowledge, drug discovery, and vaccines never counted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">A
significant percentage of the Chinese public also have a long-running fear,
reinforced by COVID-19, that if you get sick, you must be treated by
doctors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is why Chinese hospitals
are overflowed with people with the slightest symptoms.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also just a human nature, many Chinese do
support lockdowns, particularly if other people are the ones under lockdowns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is utterly
disappointing that even some scientists and doctors who know better are
pandering to the sentiment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wu Zhunyou,
a prominent national figure, had talked about easing COVID-19 measures before, but
turns around to rationalize the current lockdowns by saying that millions would
die if loosening.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is used to justify
Shanghai lockdown, and many Chinese agree with it, but it is fearmongering.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">A
major piece of evidence cited to support the “millions” number is the South
Korean data.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The death rate in Korean
Omicron is 0.1%, so 1-2 million Chinese could die.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But this ignores the fact that Korea opened
up prior to the most recent wave, and China didn’t and won’t in the near
future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Another case often cited is HK,
but HK deaths are 90% unvaccinated, and HK also more or less opened up prior to
Omicron.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>None of those conditions exist
in mainland China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The final piece of
evidence in support of lockdown is that China has fewer hospitals, so a rush of
Omicron patients will overwhelm the medical system and lead to overall more
deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This has happened in places
under lockdowns like Xi’An, Jilin, and Shanghai, resulting in savable deaths but,
ironically, almost no COVID-19 deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
is because most medical resources are summoned for the senseless, continuous, city-wide
COVID-19 screening and gathering all the positives for isolation, leaving fewer
to treat other patients at the hospitals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>What is more, many parts of the hospitals are closed for fear of
admitting COVID-19 positives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No wonder
all those wildly reported and denounced deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><b>In short, lockdown creates the squeeze, not COVID-19 patients!</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is even the more unacceptable because China
has had two years’ experience with lockdowns, Shanghai may have the best
medical infrastructure in China, but Shanghai still fails. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
failure in Shanghai is well documented by the media, and it feels worse because
it is self-inflicted and completely avoidable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Of course COVID-19 will lower, but other diseases will kill more people,
and a bad economy will kill more people in Shanghai and the rest of China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In China 10 million people die every year,
200K in Shanghai, 560 per day in Shanghai.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>How many have died from COVID-19?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Even those well-known deaths related but not due to COVID-19, 10 so far,
times 10 assuming underreporting, that number is still negligible compared to
the “normal” daily deaths in Shanghai<b>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is
it really worthy to shut down the whole city and a huge chunk of China’s economy
and anger so many people, without manifestly saving any or many lives?</b> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">What
should happen instead?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like it or not, the
whole world, including China, have been and will be living with COVID-19 ever
since 2020 (Jan 26, 2020 blog).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>China
can certainly live with COVID-19 in its own way unlike other countries, with
monitoring and other requirements, but no constant city-level lockdowns here
and there, this month or next month.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
public must be informed that there is no need to fear or discriminate COVID-19 and
to seek care with minor cold like symptoms, and medical professionals must do
their usual jobs, not prioritizing COVID-19 above other diseases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The government needs to improve vaccination
of the public and elderly, including the third or fourth shots, perhaps with protein
and other types of vaccines coupled with the more widely used inactivated virus
vaccines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">Compared to a month ago
(3/16/2022 blog), Shenzhen escaped the worst COVID-19 measures after one week,
and Jilin has gone over the wave, leaving Shanghai the only major one still
battered, with many other places in China unable to loosen because of an eye on
Shanghai.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But just to be fair, Shanghai
nowadays may be an emotional hell, but no need to over dramatize, because as calculated
above, the actual death toll is nothing standing out comparing to prior
records, provided that the lockdown doesn’t drag on much longer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A ray of light emerges with reports that
Shanghai may be preparing for returning to work after over two weeks’ lockdown,
a welcoming sign. Another good sign is that a few cities, Shanghai included, will
shorten isolation time from 14 days to 10 days for oversea travelers. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is no doubt that lockdown will reduce
COVID-19 infections, but the real improvement will come only after we learn the
lessons and act more smartly, not blindly using the old toolkit, the next time
around.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <br /></span></span><p> </p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-29173126063272848892022-03-15T21:56:00.000-07:002022-03-15T21:56:09.409-07:00Glenn Greenwald is mostly right, and the COVID-19 situation in China <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Greenwald
is nearly 100% correct in his assessments of the recent political and media climate
in the US (<a href="https://greenwald.substack.com/p/romneys-treason-smear-of-tulsi-gabbard?s=w">https://greenwald.substack.com/p/romneys-treason-smear-of-tulsi-gabbard?s=w</a>),
as his arguments are well rounded and supported by historic records and facts. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">There
are two blemishes, however, going along with his other writings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first and most damning is that he implies
that the neocons were the only GOP pro-war fraction while Dems are mostly
pro-war where neocons now belong.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
reality, both Dem and GOP are pro-war, with minor variations depending on who
is in the WH at the time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, in
the 1990s GOP was less supportive of Clinton’s wars, then in 2000s more Dems
were against Bush’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But there has almost
always been enough and broad support for wars at DC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is there a war WH really liked but stopped by
the Congress in the last 30 years?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Don’t
we all have the impression that the Congress appears more belligerent than
WH?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If there is any distinction, it is
that overall more Dems or the left are anti-war than the right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thus, among the GOP Senators favored by
Greenwald, like Cotton, Rubio, Hawley, who has said or done anything sensible lately?
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some, plus Tucker Carlson, may be less
enthusiastic about war with Russia, but they are all in for cold or hot war
with China, Iran, etc, and have been poisoning the water for years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>You can’t be for peace if you want to substitute
one war for another</b>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Another
is Greenwald wrote “the U.S. has funded the work of Chinese scientists to <a href="https://theintercept.com/2021/09/06/new-details-emerge-about-coronavirus-research-at-chinese-lab/"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">manipulate
coronaviruses</span></a> to make them more contagious and lethal”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not sure if Greenwald even understands what
he read or wrote, or maybe he just wants to scare people?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From everything reported, WIV made point
mutations in bat CoVs and infected mice, nothing unusual or inconceivable in
the research community.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While some mutations
made more viruses at first, at the end of the experiment a few days later, all
CoVs had the same outcome.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So “more
contagious” at first maybe but not at the end, and surely not lethal, since CoVs
don’t kill mice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And never any human
studies, and nothing to do with COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Greenwald can be excused for lacking a scientific background, but
harping on something with little knowledge is tiresome.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Turning
to COVID-19, mainland China is experiencing the most serious situation and is
enacting the most restrictive policies since March 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are, however, important differences then
and now. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The recent daily record is ~5000,
even higher than Wuhan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A caveat is that
during early 2020 testing was limited, so the actual infections were much
higher than recorded, whereas currently it is carpet testing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In early 2020 only the Wuhan city and Hubei
province was severely impacted, with other places only a few hundred cases total
at most.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in Mar 2022 it is more widespread, including
economic heavyweights like Shanghai and Guangdong (Shenzhen).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Jilin province now has a lockdown, not
like the Wuhan one, but a lockdown nevertheless, Shanghai and Shenzhen have a
slowdown, and many cities have closed schools and others.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the other hand, the vast majority of
infections are asymptomatic or very mild, and out of the 20K+ cases, maybe only
10 need any meaningful care so far.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
is likely due to the effects of vaccination and the less pathogenic Omicron.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">All
these resuscitate the long-vexing question: is lockdown or slowdown really
necessary, at least in certain cities?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sure,
something has to be done, but using largely the same old strategy from 2020 is
lazy at best, suicidal at worst for economic destruction with diminishing returns
in saving lives in 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>Virus
kills people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So does lockdown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So does bad economy. </b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A recent Lancet paper examines global excess
death from Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31 2021(<a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext">https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext</a>),
typically representing underreported COVID-19 deaths in most countries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in countries with fewer COVID-19 cases,
it is likely that most excess deaths are related but not due to COVID-19, e.g.,
due to lockdown-induced stress, limited medical access or care, or economic
hardship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For mainland China the Lancet paper estimates
13K excess death in the two year period, including 7K in areas outside Hubei
where only 40-50K infections were reported.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Compare that to an earlier paper (</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n415">https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n415</a>)
</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">looking at excess deaths in
China from Jan 1 to March 31 2020, when COVID-19 was the most deadly, which reveals
2K excess deaths in Wuhan but nothing elsewhere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So maybe 11K extra deaths from April 1, 2020
to Dec 31, 2021? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Few if any of 11-13K were
due to COVID-19 since only 50K infections were identified under constant surveillance
including the city-wide, multi-round testing scheme.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It must be noted that 20 million people die
in China every two years, so 11K or 13K might well be a rounding error, but it
is probable that some of those 11-13K die due to COVID-19 related
policies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is true that without those policies many, many
more people would have died from COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Still, the issue at hand is 2 years into COVID-19 and with widespread vaccination,
why is the blunt instrument still applied, and why isn’t there a better approach
to deal with COVID-19 in China?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
new development is clearly not towards the direction of returning to normalcy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A hope is that after weathering this wave,
including the much worse one in HK, China should gain enough experience and
learn a new way to manage COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A glimmer
of light emerges when China just updates its COVID-19 medical policy (<a href="https://news.sina.com.cn/o/2022-03-16/doc-imcwiwss6227003.shtml">https://news.sina.com.cn/o/2022-03-16/doc-imcwiwss6227003.shtml</a>),
the first one in almost two years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
new policy allows COVID-19 patients to be discharged more early and easily, and
also reserves important resources for the severe cases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is in line with what many countries are
doing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So China is moving to a more
reasonable endpoint, even though there will be detours and seems too slow at times.
</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Both
Chinese and international media often discuss “zero COVID” vs “living with
COVID”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The framing of the choices is
simplistic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are all living with
COVID, and the real question is how.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>China’s so-called dynamic zero policy can never ensure absolute zero
COVID, but suppresses it to zero or almost zero whenever a case is
identified.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In countries “living with COVID”,
measures are still in place that limit and treat COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hence never black and white, or all or nothing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is likely that China’s eventual policy
will be a middle ground: won’t be zero, and allows COVID-19 at a level as high
as the locals can tolerate, a moving target, before strict measures kick in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-22411500157980197092022-02-17T00:24:00.001-08:002022-02-24T21:53:58.914-08:00Natural immunity vs vaccination<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
pandemic seems to have been on forever, but we still have much to learn about
COVID-19, which is only a bit over 2 years old, an infant among human
diseases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So it is unsurprising to have
different opinions and debates and changes in positions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even scientists and medical professionals don’t
agree on everything or many things, no wonder the public is often confused.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Take
Dr John Campbell, a very popular YouTuber on COVID-19 subjects, as an
example.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From his background he knows medical
stuff more than the intricacy of science.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Most what he says fits the mainstream consensus, but two “obsessions” of his, one about
ivermectin, and one about natural immunity, merit mentioning.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
case for ivermectin is odd.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hyped by
many people including Campbell, there is no clinical evidence it works against
COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Research cited by Campbell is of
questionable quality, rebutted by no less than other YouTubers, and it is clear
that the canonical mechanism of ivermectin won’t do because the lung concentration
of ivermectin isn’t high enough.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
only saving grace for ivermectin supporters is that ivermectin might work with
a different yet unknown mechanism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
if that argument is enough, what is stopping tens of thousands of other
medicines from ever being COVID-19 drugs? </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Campbell
is not against vaccination, but he places a higher premium on natural infection
and immunity than probably most scientists and doctors would, especially since
Omicron.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Campbell bets that Omicron
infects everybody to give everybody immunity, then everybody will be free of
COVID-19 forever.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This position fits the
inclination of a large section of the populace, is not necessarily wrong,
but also not necessarily right, either.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unlike
popular beliefs, the medical community has evaluated natural immunity vs vaccination.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The latest data, from CDC, cited as evidence
is <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm">https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The study found that COVID-19 conferred
protection a bit better than two-dose vaccination in CA and NY.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the data were limited, might not apply to
elsewhere, the Omicron variant, or any future variants.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
first question is, which is safer?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There
is no debate here, even if COVID-19 kills only 0.5% or fewer of the infected,
and vaccines do have side effects.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And even
if you survive, you may develop long COVID.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>So if one has a choice of natural infection/immunity or vaccination, don’t
do natural immunity, certainly not if you are old or have other health
problems.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even Campbell agrees on this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you get COVID-19 and clear it, consider yourself
lucky, but it is never a better option population-wise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unfortunately, attempts to compare between
natural immunity and vaccination often veer to arguing against mass vaccination.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
second is the most important: is natural immunity really better?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Natural immunity has been suspected and
recognized from animal and human studies by mid 2020 (April 9, 2020 blog), so
it is not something scientists have ignored.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2020 two big unknowns are how
long does immunity last, and what is the Ab threshold for protection?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both questions have been answered reasonably well
in 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Immunity, natural or vaccine, drops
after a few months, but protection against serious disease lasts longer than
against infection.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Ab threshold for protection
is quite low, since different vaccines, i.e., mRNA, Ad, protein based, and
inactivated virus based, are similarly effective at preventing serious outcomes
even as they induce different levels of Ab in humans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">These
properties muddle the water of whether natural immunity is truly better than
vaccination because a study must find people who are infected or vaccinated at
the same time and compare how many are infected and their outcomes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Furthermore, what variants they are infected
and re-infected matter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Few if any study
has had that high level of resolution, so it is premature to conclude natural
immunity is better, provided one survives first.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">On
a slightly different note, the same shortcoming pertains when comparing
different vaccines in different countries and clinical trials.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If a country, e.g., the US, is having a lot
of cases at the same time people are getting the shots, the difference in
infection between the vaccinated and unvaccinated will appear fast and vast.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if the shots come earlier than the
COVID-19 wave, the vaccines may seem less effective, simply because more time
has passed since the shots.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the
protective power against serious disease is more alike.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Critically,
natural immunity has more uncertainty than vaccination.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Vaccination’s uncertainty lies in individuals
responding to the same, uniformed vaccines differently.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Natural immunity shares the same variation,
but has its additional, unique features: how much virus you got initially to
become infected, and how sick you were, which also depends on whether and how much
you got medical care.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This adds overwhelming
amount of unpredictability to natural immunity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Currently it is surmised that those who were modestly or seriously sick develop
better immunity, so people who are infected with few or no symptoms might not
realize they are carriers and might have little Ab or natural immunity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These people could account for 10-50% of the
infected, but are likely under-sampled by the CDC or other studies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thus, it is erroneously based on those data to
conclude that natural immunity is better.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
last question is, what is the best way to protect infection and re-infection,
by Omicron, another variant, or future variants?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Omicron is more infectious than other
variants mostly because it better evades human’s immune response, so will
people get Omicron over and over once the immunity wears off?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How long are we protected against infection
and against serious disease?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How do we
get to the COVID-19 endgame with immunity?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Are we waiting for natural immunity, or vaccine booster?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since we know immunity wanes (protection
against serious disease should eventually drop as well), and we don’t know what future
infection will bring, it will be foolish to roll the dice with and emphasize natural
infection/immunity.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">PS:
Here is a history of 2009 pandemic origin, with eerie similarity to or lessons
for COVID-19:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>https://www.the-scientist.com/infographics/timeline-investigating-the-origins-of-the-2009-pandemic-69519?utm_campaign=TS_DAILY_NEWSLETTER_2022&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=203964027&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9PEnTx85tmo-ZB_Bj1AK_X1xN0Ntpzqk73S-Qmh4r8NuuIDxnqKbnSDHfE8njqaIxll0C1LK_xwhsZWRehkf5DvY1zeQ&utm_content=203964027&utm_source=hs_email.</span></p>
SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-34727069866233790452022-02-11T00:29:00.001-08:002022-02-11T16:01:51.483-08:00Maybe as good as it will ever get in the Western media about WIV and COVID-19<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">MIT
Technology Review published an article on WIV on Feb 9, 2022 (www.technologyreview.com/2022/02/09/1044985/shi-zhengli-covid-lab-leak-wuhan/).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Together with columns by Michael Hiltzik at
the LA Times, it stands as the best journalism on COVID-19 origin by the
Western media.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>MIT Technology Review is
no brand-name, and Michael Hiltzik can be dismissed as being a columnist and expressing
his opinions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hence this underscores indirectly
but also abundantly the lopsided COVID-19 debate.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
new, lengthy article contains a lot of new information about WIV.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, beyond the “usual suspect” Shi
Zhengli, it describes for the first time in the West two important junior researchers
at Shi’s lab who had cultured bat CoVs and sequenced SARS-CoV-2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The article reflects how dismal Nathan
Robison’s interview of Alina Chan was (Jan 22, 2022 blog), which is far from the
worst.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Along the way the article summarily
confirms many points my previous blogs had made based on public records and professional
knowledge (e.g., Dec 7, 2021 and Jan 22, 2022 blogs).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some of the confirmations, in a matter-of-fact
manner almost for the first time, are:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">1.
There aren’t many CoVs in WIV’s collections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Estimated 2K at most, and perhaps 200 relevant to humans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A drop in the bucket compared to Nature CoVs.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">2.
Almost all known CoVs at WIV exist as sequences, or computer files, only, never
live viruses. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every lab in the world
knows how hard it is to isolate CoV from bat samples.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only 3 viruses have been isolated, all SARS related,
by one of the researchers mentioned in the article.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">3.
It is a common practice to grow bat CoVs at BSL-2 facilities in the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">4.
Thus it is a red herring for the lab origin crowd to cry lab safety on the BSL-2
or BSL-4 issue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was never any
problem with WIV biosafety.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The 2020 WP article
about DOS cable on BSL-4 at WIV was misleading at best because it seriously lacked
contexts and had no specifics on any accidents.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">5.
Shi’s lab has three dozen people, big but not so big (plenty of labs around the
world have many more people).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not exactly
an enterprise of gigantic work to create SARS-CoV-2.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">6.
Furthermore, GOF was not technically possible with what WIV had.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even with RaTG13, lab origin crowd’s
favorite.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Scientists quoted by the
article all agree on that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">7.
The S protein is not the sole determinant of disease by CoVs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So the much-hyped furin site in S, lab origin
crowd’s the other favorite, is even less telling, because for WIV to make
SARS-CoV-2, they now not only had to mutate S, but also other parts of the CoVs,
which to this day still have unknown significance to disease.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Related to 6, and in the words of Angela
Rasmussen of the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, it would have been “a
feat of unprecedented genetic engineering.”</span> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">8.
Many rural people have Ab against SARS-related CoVs, indicating long-time and prior exposures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Contrast to common beliefs but natural for
scientists to understand, it is never a given that COVID-19 originated in Wuhan.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">9.
Peter Daszak</span> really was not that powerful in the WHO team the lab origin
gangs make him out to be.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">10.
The WIV debate persists simply because the lab origin crowd don’t believe what Shi/WIV/China
says.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is no way to satisfy them, due
to WCEV (May 1, 2020 blog).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have no evidence, and they
ask questions not because they want scientific answers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These people and their actions are the
epitome of neo-racism.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">But
for anyone with an open mind, you can look at public records and scientific
literature, prior to 2020 and since, to determine whether there is any
indication Shi/WIV was doing anything they said they were not doing, which
might lead to SARS-CoV-2, or anything Shi/WIV said that was not unreasonable but
was contradicted by any evidence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Answer: Nil.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then compare Shi/WIV’s record with
lab origin crowd’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The contrast is day
and light.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is a big wonder that the
lab origin theory still has a speckle of credibility, if not for the fact that
WCEV infected more people than SARS-CoV-2 in the West, and human bodies don’t clear
WCEV automatically. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Nonetheless,
there are a few questions or problems with the article.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>MIT Technology Review is not a household
name, and the article’s timing is badly off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There have been bits and pieces from MIT Technology Review before, but the
current, complete article publishes mostly months- or even years-old information.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why didn’t it come out, say 6 months ago,
when it could have made a bigger impact and Michael Hiltzik was the only one at
MSM writing good columns? </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
worst part is the article also blames Chinese misinformation and not being
transparent, a preemptive cover against pro-China bias in the West (in fairness
the article includes responses from Chinese scientists).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For one, it is curious that transparency is
treated implicitly as an all-or-none phenomenon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If so, is the US transparent?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Does the US government tell or show you everything,
or do you find everything from the US government truthful and immediately
throughout the pandemic (or other events)?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If not, is the US transparent or not?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Regarding China, what is not transparent?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If there is something found wrong later, is
it possible that it was due to confusion about dealing with a brand new virus
and disease and still learning, or no one having all the information in
real-time? Even Einstein made scientific mistakes, but being wrong doesn’t mean
hiding something.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
article cites the 2003 SARS as an example, but the popular storyline spread by
the media is off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The article mentions a
doctor at Beijing revealing more patients in Beijing than officially admitted
at the time, but misses the nuance that it was unclear at what level the information
was withheld.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And haven’t we seen plenty
of such examples in the US during COVID-19?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>More importantly, SARS started in Guangdong months earlier, and by the
time Beijing had it, China and the whole world already knew about the
disease.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">About Chinese
misinformation, the West likes to accuse Chinese foreign ministry of blaming
the US for making COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This article
is careful in only saying that China “insinuated” the possibility, which is the
lightest accusation by any Western media outlet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the article never tells you countless US officials
from Trump down have claimed WIV/China made COVID-19 earlier, while no Chinese government
officials have made the other assertion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And the foreign ministry spokespeople merely argued in rhetorical tweets
and in response to Western journalists: you say China doesn’t have transparency
or allow access, but China has already allowed visits to WIV, so when will the
US allow visits to so-and-so?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Before
2020 WIV was (still is) a research and education institute that publishes in
scientific journals and cooperates internationally.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Foreign scholars come and go all the time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Circling back to transparency, does the
so-and-so facility in the US operate the same way, and how much do we know
about what it does?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is it fair to apply
different standards? If the MIT Technology Review article reminds its audience of
the US side, it would have been more objective, balanced, and better. </span><p> </p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-40679857056861459242022-02-08T00:44:00.014-08:002022-02-11T16:03:00.458-08:00Endgame of COVID-19<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--></p><p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
question of how COVID-19 will end has been asked since Jan 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It must be stressed that <b>the endgame depends
not only on virus properties but also on human society responses</b>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a combination of those two factors, the
first prediction that COVID-19 had the same trajectory as SARS was quickly
squashed by late Feb 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With vaccines
coming out in Dec 2020 the 2<sup>nd</sup> hope was that COVID-19 would end in
2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Vaccines indeed work, but the
relaxation of COVID-19 measures, anti-vaccination movement, the uneven
distribution of vaccines globally, and the emergence of COVID-19 variants push the
pandemic well into 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Feb 2022
comes the third prediction of COVID-19 endgame that new Omicron variant could immunize
enough people for COVID-19 to become endemic, much like the common cold.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">This
3<sup>rd</sup> prediction is plausible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Combining vaccination of the population with the high transmission but
less severity of Omicron, enough surviving people will have immunity against
COVID-19 in 2022 and beyond.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Practically
that is how infectious diseases have always progressed throughout human
history: with time going by, there will be fewer people to infect.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Omicron might speed up the process, but COVID-19
will go downhill eventually regardless.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">But
shall we bet on it for 2022, or is there anything people should do to prepare
for the unpredictable future?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There remain
two major unknowns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first is: will
new, more dangerous variants arrive?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
second: how long does immunity last, and will people get infected and sick with
the virus again and again?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These two
issues will take months to resolve.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At
this point one thing is certain: all vaccines protect severe diseases and serve
as the last line of defense for humans. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Even
with these unknowns, many countries including most Western countries are phasing
out or abandoning their COVID-19 restrictions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>A huge question is what will China do?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>China’s COVID-19 policies have only become stricter and stricter since
Jan 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A consequence is that China’s
COVID-19 cases and deaths are miniscule compared to most other countries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Another is economy doesn’t run as well as it
could have, for example, travels especially international travels have been severely
curtailed, a big missed opportunity for China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Tens of thousands of foreign students left China in Jan-Feb 2020 and
then have been prevented from going back ever since.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Undergraduates have taken online courses and
graduated, but graduate and professional students don’t have that option.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some transferred, but inevitably many wasted
a significant amount of time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Chinese
authorities might have hoped that they could come back when oversea COVID-19
situations improved, but things have only got worse, not better, since the
summer of 2020, so no student or tourist entry for almost two years now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a sense China could have offered a safe
heaven for many foreigners in 2020 and 2021, which is good for everybody
including China, but that golden opportunity is gone in 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To be fair, China is only one of the many
countries that ban most foreign entry since 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On a general note, China should welcome more
foreigners in the future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They may or
may not like life in China, but they will see and find firsthand Chinese and Chinese
society not much different from the rest of the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their own experience will be the best weapon
against WCEV.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">With
several major events on schedule in 2022, there won’t be any dramatic changes
in China until the summer at the earliest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But China is likely looking at other countries for clues and lessons at
the same time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Obviously for answers to
the two questions above.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If there are no
new variants by June, for example, there is certainly room for changes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also, how well other countries cope with COVID-19?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the case numbers in, say, the US and UK, are
5K instead of >100K per day, international travel can be relaxed
significantly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Clearly it depends on the
three big unknowns above and whether things go as wished.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once China decides to loosen, it will do it
in phases, so it won’t go back to a new “normal” for at least 3-6 more months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">What will the new “normal” in
China look like?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It depends on what the
world learns about COVID-19 during the next several months, and don’t expect
complete relaxation. On international exchanges, more flights will be allowed,
fewer testings prior to departure but likely vaccination requirements, quarantine
for a shorter time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Domestically, once
an infection is detected, shorter isolation time for fewer people, and no more
lockdown of a whole city.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is made possible
because of a high vaccination rate in China, a good COVID-19 surveillance and
response system, and a better understanding of a presumably lesser
disease.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It will strike a moving balance
between disease prevention and normal human life. </span><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">PS: Maybe as good as it will get in Western media, at least MSM (</span><a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/02/09/1044985/shi-zhengli-covid-lab-leak-wuhan/">She’s at the center of the covid lab leak controversy. Now she’s telling her story. | MIT Technology Review</a>)<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;">.</span></div>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-35268519616282466672022-01-31T01:44:00.005-08:002022-02-08T00:49:10.647-08:00The most stunning tennis match ever<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Rafael Nadal came back from down 0:2 to beat Daniil
Medvedev 3:2 to win the Australian Open final on Jan 30-31, 2022, becoming the
first man to win 21 Grand Slam singles’ titles.</span> This match must rate as the most stunning tennis
match ever.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">People have come back from 0:2 deficits in GS
before, including in the finals.
Examples include Djokovic beating
Tsitsipas at the 2021 French Open, Dominic Thiem defeated Alexander Zverev at the
2020 US Open</span>, and Agassi over <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Medvedev_(tennis)" title="Andrei Medvedev (tennis)"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">Andrei Medvedev</span></a> at the 1999 French Open final. But there are vast differences between this
one and the other versions. The first is
obviously the great significance in history book, the 21 GS and all that. Although 21 may not be the final count, and
the Big 3, frankly, can’t be objectively separated in the GOAT discussion (9/12/21 blog). The second is that in the other matches, all the
eventual winners were the favorites entering the contests. On the other hand, Nadal was decidedly the
underdog. Odd from the viewpoint of
Nadal’s prestige, but true in every tennis fan’s mind, since Medvedev has been
the best hard-court player or co-favorite with Djokovic since 2021. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Nadal was injured and missing
in action for most of 2021 and only started to play again a month ago. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">His previous rounds in AO2022 showed a
major lack of stamina from set 3 and beyond.
In his quarterfinal win over Shapovalov<span style="touch-action: manipulation;">, he raced to a 2:0 lead, but visibly weakened
in the 3<sup>rd</sup> and 4<sup>th</sup> sets, barely escaped in the 5<sup>th</sup>
when Shapovalov<span style="touch-action: manipulation;"> made a few easy
mistakes in a service game. The same
thing happened in the semifinal vs <a href="https://www.bing.com/search?q=Matteo+Berrettini+tennis&FORM=S00035" target="_blank"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">Berrettini</span></a>, only that <a href="https://www.bing.com/search?q=Matteo+Berrettini+tennis&FORM=S00035" target="_blank"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">Berrettini</span></a> made his errors in the 4<sup>th</sup> set. Thus the common wisdom entering the final was
that Nadal had to win the first two sets to even have a chance against </span>Medvedev, who is 10 years younger with good serves, solid,
balanced forehand and backhand and makes few mistakes. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">So when Nadal was down
0:2, few would think Nadal could win, and most suspected a quick 0:3. Then what happened? How could Nadal do it? How could Nadal muster his physical ability
to match </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Medvedev’s for three more sets and win them all? Most of it must have been the fighting spirit
of Nadal. This is why the match and
outcome is the most stunning. Because it
was not that Medvedev didn’t fight hard : he surely did as hell. But in sports there is always some luck
involved. Maybe Medvedev was a bit unlucky
this time. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The tennis was of the highest
quality befitting both players' caliber. There were some ups and downs
for both players over the 5 hours, but even when they were tired, they still
managed to make fantastic shots. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Medvedev
was the one running more and trying harder throughout. In certain Medvedev’s service games, after
Nadal getting a break, Nadal clearly was saving energy for his own service
games. This likely helped Nadal maintain
his intensity until the end. If there was
a factor other than luck that doomed Medvedev, it was his service return from
the backhand side, as he sent too many returns long. A technique Medvedev needs to improve. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">Who would have thought Nadal winning his least
favorite GS tournament (until 2022) after an injury and surgery and returning
merely a month earlier, against a heavily favored opponent, and coming back
from a huge deficit, and making history in the process?</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span> </p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-44880488131590205692022-01-25T23:34:00.022-08:002022-01-26T22:49:13.930-08:00How the West makes Xinjiang propaganda <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
moral war against China has been long ongoing, although now at a higher gear
with COVID-19 and Xinjiang.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The neo-racism has
reached such a fever that both the Left and Right in the US unite 100%
in this effort, even when they are at each other’s throat on every other
subject.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Western
propaganda employs two forces to paint the alternative facts in Xinjiang:
witnesses and experts/MSM reports, while in fact all they need is a goal (war),
evidence later (since no evidence, manufacturing evidence).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are few witnesses to begin with,
MSM can’t and won’t verify if they are what they say they are or if they saw
what they say they saw, and there is no physical evidence to support their claims.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So the West depends largely on like-minded
experts and MSM.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To show how they are
all objective, professional, and so on, they often quote Chinese media reports
and public or semi-public Chinese documents: see, even the Chinese materials reveal
genocide, forced labor, etc!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unwittingly,
however, this process shows exactly how these people are sheer liars and
race-cultural warriors instead of real experts or journalists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">An
undeniable, recurring offense is that those “experts”, BBC, CNN, NYT, WP, etc, have
always twisted Chinese words and sentences in their English translation to make
entirely neutral and even benevolent meanings sinister, for they are counting
on their audience not knowing China and not understanding the Chinese
language.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Chinese government and media
have refuted the nonsense, and many foreigners who do understand Chinese also denounce
the Xinjiang propaganda, some making videos and documenting what they see with
their own eyes in Xinjiang (Jan 5, 2022 blog).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Below are two more examples, by no means exhaustive, illustrating
perfectly how the “experts” and MSM twisted Chinese words and media reports to
portray a narrative in complete opposite of the true events in China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is important and also the most obvious,
because, whatever witness claims, we can’t evaluate them (the Chinese denial
doesn’t mean a thing, right?), but if you twist a word’s meaning and
selectively quote documents or edit news reports, the whole world catches you
red-handed: the actual smoking gun. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
first example deals with a months-old BBC report that maliciously edited a 2017
Chinese news piece in English (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xm5fNV0rSaI">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xm5fNV0rSaI</a>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If one watches the Chinese news (with local
people’s original sounds), any reasonable person will come away with the
impression how the Chinese government and businesses are working together to
help people in Xinjiang alleviate poverty while being considerate and
accommodating.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>FYI, this is a decade-long
anti-poverty drive not specifically designed for Xinjiang, as it applies to
other, poor regions in China as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>China,
in many areas, economic and social, still needs development, albeit not in the
ways the West describes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the other
hand, if you watches BBC, you will think evil forced labor in Chinese’s own
words!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How did BBC accomplish that?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, by selectively editing and stripping
the proper context of the Chinese news report, blatantly clear if anyone
watches the original Chinese version and compares. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since both the Chinese report and BBC report
are available (and youtube <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xm5fNV0rSaI">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xm5fNV0rSaI</a>),
people can see and decide for themselves who is hijacking the audience, or whether
what BBC did here was even journalism or moral.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Chinese media have also amply exposed the practice of BBC in this
particular reporting and others.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">It
is further funny that whenever MSM such as BBC report on China, they knee-jerkingly
include a picture of “police”, whereas in many if not most cases what MSM show
are actually security guards, unarmed and otherwise not unlike those at malls
and clubs in the US.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In China most security
guards are employed by private entities and posted at living quarters and large
business buildings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their main job is
checking visitors’ ID and keeping unwanted people out instead of preventing
people inside from leaving.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a
well-known truism in China, but for the West it becomes a sign of something nefarious
or a concentration camp.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is laughable
per Chinese security guards’ job description if this is how a concentration or
labor camp works.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
BBC report is by no means an exception but an embodiment of MSM’s SOP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1) They use meaningless images (e.g., security
guards) to convey a hidden message. 2) They might cite two “witnesses” in China
without the proper context or even twisting their words.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>100x more Chinese will give a different
opinion but never receive a fair airing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>3) They will twist and edit public Chinese materials to support their
claims, even though the actual language contradicts MSM’s stories.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>MSM can get away with this for a long time
because the Western audience, the elite and public, are clueless, and fake news
that confirms a preexisting misconception is easier and safer than real news
that overturns political (in)correctness. Why do they do that?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A major reason is that many MSM reporters in
China have a poor grasp of China and the language, but a much bigger contributor
to their malpractice is that pandering to the China-bashing political system is self-preservation
and good for career advancement in the West.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Fortunately, social media have given voices alternative to MSM, but only
if you know where to look and what to believe, such as meeting real people with
actual sounds on actual grounds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
second example is a detailed analysis, including legal opinions, of the ASPI
report on forced labor by Jaq James (<a href="https://johnmenadue.com/an-obliteration-of-aspis-uyghurs-for-sale-report-take-two/">https://johnmenadue.com/an-obliteration-of-aspis-uyghurs-for-sale-report-take-two/</a>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ASPI is an anti-China think tank supported by
the Australian and US governments and militaries, so it is hard for any
unbiased reader to understand why ASPI should be considered objective in any
way and why its report taken as authoritative by anybody.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Still, Jaq James demonstrates the ASPI report
is a giant fraud.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Jaq
James composes a detailed pdf file replete with endless examples of ASPI
misconducts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has everything the first
example shows and more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, how
ASPI applied the same old trick as MSM, scary buzzwords such as police,
watchtower, fences, etc, to manipulate readers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>How ASPI used satellite images to identify concentration or whatever camps,
hoping nobody would bother to check.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
when people did check, nothing of sort existed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>How ASPI stirred up a situation of damned if Chinese do, damned if Chinese
don’t.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And how ASPI and WP colluded and
pumped out irrelevant and misleading information about restaurants and job ads
and questionable “witnesses” that shed little if any light on the so-called
forced labor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is astounding that none
of ASPI’s claims is even remotely valid, and the most apparent, objective, unfalsifiable,
and very abundant evidence of ASPI’s fraud is how it twisted Chinese language
in Chinese documents and news reports with mood-turning, fear-inducing,
evil-sounding English words and sentences.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This last part is the most revealing of the mindsets of the ASPI authors
and MSM in general.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It would have been
hilarious if the consequence is not so dire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <b>American officials never miss a beat to proclaim a "rule"-based international order, but how about a truth-based order first?</b><br /></span></span></p>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">We can rate offenses and crimes from 1-10, with 1 as the least
serious, such as pickpocketing and shoplifting, and 10 the most serious, such
as wars, instigating wars, genocide, etc.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Inventing a false pretense like Iraqis WMD for war is the same as firing
the shots for war, also a 10, because no war without a pretense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Akin to the mastermind of a murder being
punished like the one who pulls the trigger.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Similarly, and according to <b>The 11th Commandment </b>(Feb 7, 2021
blog), ASPI, BBC, and MSM who knowingly and deliberately poison the water for a
future war are criminals rated 10.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is
these people who are committing grave human rights violation in Xinjiang.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Free speech is no cover for crimes by those
who know better. </span>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-64326983638652823112022-01-22T15:42:00.001-08:002022-01-22T15:42:58.874-08:00Lack of evidence for the COVID-19 lab origin theory inadvertently revealed by Alina Chan, and the likely origin of COVID-19 <p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Alina
Chan is doing the media rounds for her upcoming, much-hyped book on COVID-19
lab origin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For political reasons this
kind attracts the most MSM attention, and Chan claims her book explains the
subject to nonscientists, but in the scientific circle the book is met with indifference
if not ridicule.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">An
interview (<a href="https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/01/how-did-the-covid-19-pandemic-start">https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/01/how-did-the-covid-19-pandemic-start</a>)
reveals exemplarily how empty her evidence and arguments are, not surprising
since they always are, whether made by Chan and anybody else.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>This is all they have, i.e., nothing</b>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During the interview with Nathan Robinson,
Chan made arguments and assertions over and over, without providing any solid evidence
to back them up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Robinson has no biology
background to evaluate or challenge her; despite reading other essays and wanting
to be critical, Robinson didn’t bring up any counterpoints until near the end
of the interview, before letting her off the hook easily.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">It
is a long interview, but Chan offered little dry stuff, which can be summed up
in three interrelated arguments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Everything else is either nonsensical or not worth responding because of
the lack of substances. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
first Chan argued is that there is an overlap between natural origin and lab
origin such that “lab-based” includes a WIV worker being infected by a natural
virus, either during field collection, or from growing the virus in the
lab.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>This reflects precisely the lab
origin crowd trying to save their behinds by muddling the water and moving the goal
post when all their other/previous arguments have fallen apart</b>, and 1) it
can’t be allowed to stand, and 2) it still doesn’t pass muster.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">People
who are not simplistic and misled, paraphrasing from the interview, will surely
remember that these same individuals, including Chan, have been yelling
bioweapons, GOF, smoking guns, etc, since 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>None of that has panned out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
last resort, therefore, is expanding their reach farther and farther so that it
might hook on the natural origin train.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is a blatant attempt at cheating, pretending to be serious and pretending
to be right without ever being so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Then,
even that novel and innovative definition has zero evidence for and plenty
against.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>SARS-CoV-2 or close relatives
never came up in scientific records prior to 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>WIV studied only SARS related CoVs prior to
2020, according to publications, suggesting that whatever other CoVs WIV had,
WIV merely collected and at most sequenced them, but never grew and amplified
them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>WIV has always maintained that no
one at WIV was infected, and nobody working at WIV, Chinese or otherwise, either
inside China or outside right now, has revealed anything unusual at WIV.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All is in the public record, hence a blanket
no-no.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The CoV collection database at
WIV shielded from the outside since late 2019?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>You bet that someone overseas has a backup record of it, and if anything
juicy is there the whole world would have known long ago. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Furthermore, whatever CoVs WIV has, nature has
many orders of multitude more, and no matter how much field work WIV does, it
is utterly neglectible compared to regular human interactions with the
environments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>WIV won’t go to virgin places,
for they survey only where the locals have told them there are bats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just from pure math it is like Chan shouting
at a pool of water while ignoring an ocean.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">Chan
cited WIV growing SARS-like CoVs at BSL-2 facilities, but for what? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We shouldn’t study CoVs?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She talked incoherently about that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The need for lab safety?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Who would disagree with that, but what does
it have to do with COVID-19?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Chan may scare
laypeople, but not real scientists, because most CoVs including SARS-like CoVs
don’t infect humans, and BSL-2 is perfectly fine and used for this line of work universally.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Besides, and again,
there is no evidence any CoV infection at WIV, and no evidence WIV had COVID-19
samples until late Dec 2019.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Chan et al.’s
strategy is to churn out irrelevant information to mislead people, and when the
previous assertions failed, without exception, to move onto a new one, which
will suffer the same fate undoubtedly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But as long as there is a market, she will have an audience: who needs science when your entire thesis is based on faith? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">The
second is best told in Chan’s own words: “</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I’d say that comparing
the categories of evidence between natural and lab-based origins, they’re
pretty even. But it’s true that the proximity factor favors the lab leak
hypothesis. So if you look at historical evidence, precedents of natural
viruses versus those that have escaped from labs, there’s pretty strong cases
for both natural and lab”. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This is sheer ignorance and lunacy, her audacity to quote
“historical”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Throughout history, did
any nascent pandemic originated from a lab?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Hell never!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>THIS is historical
evidence: natural 100, lab 0.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If a lab
studies a known disease, and it sickens a lab worker, that at most counts as an
escape, not a new disease, since the disease is already known.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And such instances are rare, always easy to
trace, and have never caused much harm to the public.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>THAT is also historical evidence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Her argument makes sense only if WIV had the
virus prior to the outbreak, but as described above, she has exactly zero
evidence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hence Chan’s case is even weaker than a sand castle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1) History shows natural 100, lab 0, far from
“even”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2) Historically, the emergence
of infectious diseases, what and where, features a great deal of randomness and
unpredictability.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>COVID-19 being first
reported in Wuhan may well be due to chance, further having nothing to do with
WIV.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>3) It is a scientific truism that Wuhan
first reporting COVID-19 doesn’t mean SARS-CoV-2 originated there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>LA reported the first AIDS cases, but LA is
no origin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The talk of “proximity” has
little meaning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>4) Regarding “proximity
factor”, if WIV is a proximity factor, there are many more: Wuhan has over 10
million people, more people, more markets, more shops, more proximity to infections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wuhan is a major transportation hub, so trains,
buses, and airplanes are all proximity factors! </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The third argument by Chan is that Peter Daszak and the
WHO work in China can’t be trusted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
even if they can’t be trusted, have any studies thus far revealed lab
origin?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Can we trust anything Chan and crowd
have produced instead?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The answers to
both questions are decidedly NOs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No
matter what the MSM and political circles say, it remains a consensus among
biologists that COVID-19 is of natural origin ever since Feb 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Moreover, why can’t Peter Daszak and the WHO work in
China be trusted?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Has any evidence up to
2022 overturned their major conclusions in 2020 and 2021?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Again an emphatic NO.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Much
has been cried about the WHO work in China was no investigation, but what kind
of investigation you want or think was feasible, and any precedents for that
kind of investigation you like?</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
official designation appropriately called it a joint study.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The outside team will always depend on data
provided by the Chinese, and the goal was to find possible answers and suggest
subsequent work.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is still scientist
to scientist, based on scientific data, judgments, and arguments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even with differences in data interpretation
you have to trust each other, otherwise there is no basis for anything.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All data support WHO team’s conclusion, but not
Chan’s belief, which is why she tries to discredit it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But since she has no evidence herself, she is
left to question the “investigation” and Peter Daszak’s COI.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Peter Daszak was only one among many in
the WHO team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Is he really that powerful, or all the other scientists have no
independent minds of their own?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></b>Then
still, has the WHO conclusion or Peter Daszak’s argument for natural origin
undermined by any new findings by 2022?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Of course not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sowing doubt
without providing anything substantial but blaming Chinese coverup is so easy under
the current political climate, but the natural origin theory has only
strengthened since early 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A related, recent development is that E-mails were
leaked showing Fauci and Collins advising against lab-made talks, even when
some scientists had the suspicion in early 2020, which ostensibly proved that
Fauci and Collins were hiding sth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
these E-mails and MSM reports failed to update how those scientists feel in Jan
2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is likely that most if not all no
longer support lab origin, because there is now simply no evidence for but much
against it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This means how much Fauci, Collins,
and Daszak were correct all along.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">To
summarize everything concrete:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">1.
WIV didn’t know about or have the virus prior to COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">2.
The few CoVs that WIV worked on prior to 2020 were not SARS-CoV-2 or precursors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>GOF of those CoVs won’t produce SARS-CoV-2.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">3.
The CoVs WIV have collected and the act of sample collection itself are nothing
compared to nature.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">No
evidence contradicts, while all the evidence, records, and math, support
natural origin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Chan et al. have
produced no evidence or valid reasoning against, despite spending the last two
years searching for, inventing, and twisting facts and arguments, all of which
have invariably failed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Attacking Fauci/Collins/</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Daszak
won’t reverse fortune, only making them look farsighted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">But
how about even Fauci admitted we need to consider all possibilities?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is actually scientist talk, as scientists
are a cautious bunch and never say never (an oxymoron), which differs fundamentally
from what Chan means.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nobody says you
can’t test lab origin, or anti-evolution, for that matter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the same scientific rigor must apply,
which Chan et al have failed repeatedly and completely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only in theory, there is a remote possibility
that a WIV worker got infected in the wild but recovered without leaving a
trace, but then nobody can prove it, whereas the math number game dictates that
possibility is miniscule compared to those of “natural” occurrences. What the lab
conspiracy theorists do is like saying since we don’t know origin of the
universe, we should consider God creation 50% possible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is a famous historical book on that,
many people in the world believe in it, and miracles accepted without
scientific explanations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has evidence
stronger than the lab origin theory!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Last
though, what is the origin of COVID-19?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>First we have to define “origin”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Because strictly speaking, pandemic origin is like absolute 0
temperature: you might get close to it but never achieve it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Delta and Omicron variants, for example,
can be traced back to the SARS-CoV-2 reported in Jan 2020, but what about the
precursor of SARS-CoV-2, without which COVID-19 wouldn’t have had happened?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Biology means that there must be a precursor
virus, then a precursor to the precursor, and so on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The search can be infinite; if he “blames”
one virus, she can always go back in time to “blame” its precursor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consequently, the origin question is never tidy
or sexy, better left for professionals to debate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">But how
about limting it to finding the patient 0?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Bat 0?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The time and place the
virus was first transmitted from an animal to a person?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These may be what movies depict, but
scientists still realize that is mission impossible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No first-time infectious diseases have got that
kind of resolution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So scientists have
to settle on a looser, nuanced criterion, a range, or a scenario that is probable
yet by no means definitive, ready to change when new evidence emerges.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unfortunately, the public and even many
scientists are frequently confused by this operational origin definition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For one, they think the origin question has
been completely settled.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For two, they
try to jam lesson from one disease into another. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A common
refrain is that since origin of SARS was solved quickly, there must be sth fishy
when we don’t know the origin of COVID-19 two years later.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, SARS origin was not solved quickly, and
even now it is only a theory, a good one, but still a story or probable
scenario nonetheless, never 100% fixed (more later).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And there are many other pandemics we know
far less about their origins, with COVID-19 being no exception.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, even if we don’t know everything, we
have known enough about human history, records, and virus analyses to conclude
that it is natural like every other pandemic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The study
of SARS origin is often invoked to guide that of COVID-19, but the narrative commonly
described in MSM is unsatisfactory if not downright problematic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The SARS origin issue is often reported as
“solved”, while in fact the prevailing answer must instead be treated as a
working hypothesis or probability.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe
it gives a hint, but other scenarios are possible as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lab origin excluded of course.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
conventional wisdom is that SARS originated from a wet market in Guangdong
where SARS-CoV jumped from a civet or another animal/mammal to a human.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Following this roadmap, many scientists in
the COVID-19 natural origin camp conjecture that an unknown mammal transmitted SARS-CoV-2
to humans in a market in Wuhan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There
are many holes in the evidence and thinking, leaving aside the question of
whether Wuhan is truly the Ground 0 (BTW, markets are not unique in China; they
are all over the globe).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Right now
out of the 80K animal related samples tested in China, including from markets
in Wuhan and their suppliers, no SARS-CoV-2 was found.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since no sampling is exhaustive, it is entirely
possible that they missed the positive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
is also possible that animal 0 died without a record.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But a more vexing question should be: how did
the animal get the virus?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both SARS-CoV
and SARS-CoV-2 came from bats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Guangdong
didn’t find the SARS-CoV bat, and Wuhan markets had no bats, so another animal
must carry the virus.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the general
suspicion is correct, then 1) an animal carried SARS-CoV-2 and infected people at
the market, or 2) several animals at the market had compatible CoVs, which
recombined to produce SARS-CoV-2. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Consider
1) first.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Note that markets are only where
the animals are sold, and people have to grow them in a farm at the countryside
or catch them in the wild, away from big cities such as Wuhan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then farmers/hunters/merchants/drivers have
to transport them to the city markets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
other words, animals spend much more time and contact more people away from the
markets than in the markets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If an
animal had SARS-CoV-2 already, why didn’t it infect the farmer, hunter or
anybody else before it arrived at the market, as the farmer, hunter, family, or
fellow villagers would have had plenty of time, days or months, in close
contact with the SARS-CoV-2 animal?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even
suppose infection occurred at a Wuhan market, how can one be certain that it
was due to the animal, not someone transporting the animal to the market who
was infected earlier and then infected others at the market?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or the farmer/hunter/close contacts were
infected in the countryside, came to Wuhan without the animal, and infected people?
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In short, a simple analysis of time and
math finds 1) hard to defend.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A simple analysis
of biology and math reveals 2) to be even less plausible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Granted, its aggregate possibility is not 0,
no lab origin, but giving it 5% is likely still overgenerous.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the minimum you had two animals (this
number gives it the best chance), each with a suitable CoV, placed close together
inside a market, and there must be enough time for one CoV to infect the other
animal, enough time to recombine a new SARS-CoV-2 inside the animals, and then
enough time to infect a human. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A lot of unknowns
here: what were the animals that together produced SAR-CoV-2?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The same or different species?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How could two “random” CoVs meet and recombine
to form SARS-CoV-2?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As wildlife animal
trade is technically illegal (depending to the definition of “wildlife”), there
weren’t probably many such animals in any market, which were often hidden and
separated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, what were the odds of all
these low possibility events happening at the same time without disruption,
e.g., an animal being killed before SARS-CoV-2 emerged?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Many
epidemiologists think what is believed happening in Guangdong and SARS happened
again in Wuhan and SARS-CoV-2, but the case with SARS is never shut, so its lesson
for COVID-19 is not automatic, due to the simple reasons outlined for 1) and
2).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even in lab research when virus
recombination can be sped up, no new CoVs have been reported that way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To overcome the low possibility in 2), one
can argue these markets are like incubators for viruses: it is true a single
event like 2) is extremely rare, but if you have enough animals in enough
markets for enough time, one of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>those
days things will happen, and this time a Wuhan market was just unlucky.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a valid point and why the aggregate possibility
is not pegged at 0.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">But
following the same logic, why only markets in big cities? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Look at the more “natural” settings, people
living in the countryside and mountains, wildlife are much more numerous and diverse,
more bats definitely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People and animals
have a far longer time mingling, and there are local markets at well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So we have both natural and commercial “markets”
in rural areas all around the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Human population wise there may be parity between the cities and
countryside, but in terms of animals and time spent around with animals, cities
are no match.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>If markets at big cities
are virus incubators, areas outside are incubators many times bigger.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></b>Therefore, if 1) or 2) happened at a
Wuhan market, huge chances SARS-CoV-2 had already infected people earlier, outside
the market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If one argues that it was infection
at the market that led to COVID-19 pandemic, everything else being irrelevant,
then how do you know for sure that it was not someone getting infected away and
then infecting others at the market?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or
there wasn’t a low grade transmission elsewhere before a superspreading event
at the market? A beautiful theory slain by ugly probabilities. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Thus,
focusing on markets in Wuhan is akin to looking at a tree but missing the
forest, not necessarily wrong but likely misleading.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The same rings true for SARS.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Shi Zhengli of WIV, the scientist most
maligned by the lab theorists, found SARS-like CoVs in bats in Yunnan, China, geologically
and ecologically connected to SE Asia but a distance away from Guangdong, 10
years after SARS, thereby demonstrating that SARS originated in bats, and
serological studies identified local villagers in Yunnan with antibodies
against SARS, suggesting infections apart from the SARS outbreak in
2002-2003.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What is missing then is how to
get to Guangdong, but the first zoonotic jump likely occurred well before Guangdong.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Therefore,
the most probable scenario in COVID-19, based on biology, ecology, history, and
math, is as follows.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first human transmission
from an animal occurred in a rural area. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The virus spread in the countryside undetected
for various reasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Initially cases
were low, transmission sporadic and trajectory erratic, but spreading got wider
over time due to human movement and traffic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Eventually it arrived at a city or cities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Markets, stores, etc, provided an opportunity
for a superspreading event.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pandemic ensued.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the time between the first zoonotic jump
and pandemic was long enough, the virus might even evolve in a human host to
become more transmissible or pathogenic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>When we look for clues about the origin, of course we have a better
chance of identifying the later events in cities, but due to the passage of time
and loss of records, whatever happened earlier and elsewhere was more likely
gone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We just have to accept that nature
operates without human noticing and without a paper trail.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This chain of events, while speculative for
COVID-19, hold true for known diseases in history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p> </p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-77509668037766543542022-01-05T01:00:00.144-08:002022-02-02T16:21:00.978-08:00Foreign YouTuber/influencers in China vs the MSM in the West<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
<o:TargetScreenSize>1024x768</o:TargetScreenSize>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>ZH-CN</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/>
<w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
<w:Word11KerningPairs/>
<w:CachedColBalance/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
</style>
<![endif]--></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The long-term
trend in globalization means that people regularly cross international borders
and often work and live in their non-native countries for years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The more recent social media explosion shatters the monopoly of the establishments including the Western MSM even further.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The new media has its own problems, with mis-
and dis-information traveling much faster than before; however, it is hard
to conclude that they are guiltier than MSM, which have been doing it for a much
longer time, and the MSM and governments have also had their own hands muddled
in the new media water.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In 2021 MSM
such as BBC and NYT reported on foreigners living in China making youtube
videos, which is a new phenomenon proliferating like fire partly due to the global events
since 2020, although the undercurrent has existed for far longer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their videos are very easy to find, so no links/names
are given here, neither are the MSM reports.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>These foreigners became the MSM subjects only because their videos
seriously contest the narratives promoted by the MSM.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the MSM reports stunk of smears and
hypocrisy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Background first.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are millions of foreigners living in
China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most people have at least an
account in myriad social media platforms, but only a small minority make videos,
which is true everywhere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because to
make videos you need to have a particular urge and interest (the vast majority can’t
live on it), time (a 10 hour adventure might give 15 min usable video), and
skills for shooting and editing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You
must also have a good voice, be articulate and minimally photogenic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So these foreigners in question pass the
criteria.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are studying, working,
having business, retiring, or simply taking care of their families in
China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some form families with Chinese, some partner with other foreigners, some singles.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All, including various people featured in the
videos, have lived in China for years, some less than 10, some over 10, and a
few decades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They speak Chinese usually
quite well, most read, and a few even
write sufficiently.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their language
proficiency is actually much better than that of many if not most MSM reporters
in China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The motivation of most for
video making is to connect with their family and friends, the original purpose in
social media, and some further wanting to broadcast the real China to the
world. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Few if any will ever make much
money from Chinese social media since the payout per view is lower than
youtube.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Predictably more
Chinese make videos with similar contents or viewpoints, but they don’t count
or matter according to MSM.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To those
profiled as foreign YouTuber/influencers by MSM, the designation is odd.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>About “YouTubers”, these people have other
platforms that publish their videos, whose views might surpass those in
youtube.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because of this feature, they
prefer the name of “content creators”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>For “influencers”, exactly what and whom they are influencing, or who is
and who isn’t an influencer?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their
audience is whoever watches their channels, which, just like any other cases,
includes family, friends, and anybody else interested.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is an NYT reporter an influencer?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you publish something but are not a
reporter, you are an influencer; if I am a reporter and may reach and influence
more people, I am still not an influencer?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Do only social media count, or does
it go without saying that a reporter means a “higher” influencer?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Then, what videos do
these foreign “YouTuber/influencers” with their foreign associates in China produce?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All document
their lives in China, again befitting the contents of social media.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Either because of their work or personal
interest, some focus on food, some on traveling and sightseeing, some merely
daily routines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some also wade into the
political and MSM domains, which is why this whole group of people are
implicitly or explicitly maligned by the MSM.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>For their videos reveal a very genuine, normal life experience in China over
the years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even if not all directly
challenge the lies about the pandemic and Xinjiang, just the calm, everyday life
in China greatly undermines MSM’s narratives of a gloomy Chinese society: Chinese
must be sad and fighting with their governments all the time, minorities can’t
speak their languages and worship in Xinjiang and Tibet, if not worse, etc.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So BBC/NYT label them “pro-China” or
sponsored by the Chinese government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">If telling the truth is “pro-China”, then
truth has a China bias</b>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Whether sponsored
by the government or not is irrelevant (but more on that later), since the key
question is whether their videos are real or not, reflect their own experience
or not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is of the utmost importance,
as fake news, mis- and dis-information travels fast.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
people can judge with their own eyes and ears, and compare them to MSM and
anti-China YouTubers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The biggest smear
against these foreigners in China is: Of course their videos have to be
pro-China, otherwise they will be kicked out of China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This attack hinges on the belief that a)
these foreigners don’t believe or misrepresent in their videos; and b) once out
of China they will “tell the truth”, i.e., becoming anti-China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">But the best thing
about videos is that you can watch them as the ultimate evidence and decide for
yourself whether they are fake, whether the makers see and interact with the real Chinese
and society, and whether the makers truly believe in what they see, hear,
or feel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">These foreigners’ videos
actually as a whole give a very comprehensive picture of China that the MSM
have never matched even 1% of it in their widest dream.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They document lives in both big cities such
as Beijing and Shanghai as well as in remote countryside and poor areas
in China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They show, talk to, and
interview Chinese from all walks of life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They reveal the lives and struggles of Chinese citizens, relatable to
everybody else on Earth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some tour various
cities in Xinjiang and Tibet, observe for days, and talk to people on the
streets for hours.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The videos are made
by people coming from various continents and countries, Asia,
Europe, Africa, the US, UK, Canada, Japan, India, Australia, Israel, you name it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These people have had vastly different backgrounds
and lives, most are young, some more senior, diverse professions, and diverse
interests.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">In sum, their videos represent the furthest improbable from fake news, much
better than the garden variety social media, FB posts or tweets the MSM </b></span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">so dearly </b></span>cherish.</b> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ordinary Chinese will
have no quarrel with those videos.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Now compare THAT level
of evidence to those in MSM reporting and anti-China youtubers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>MSM rarely has any videos, merely words from
the reporters, throwing in a few “experts” and “witnesses”, and you are
supposed to believe their words/stories on NYT instead of your own eyes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In rare cases when BBC or CNN has a video, it
is still 90% a reporter talking in front of something that he says something is
happening inside but the remaining 10% showing no actual evidence anything is
happening there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, you can
shoot a video outside WIV suggesting they made COVID-19 there, as if that adds
any legitimacy to your thesis, which will never count as evidence WIV did
it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And BBC would tell you the blurred
building behind me is a concentration camp, but a casual, drive-by inspection
of the architecture and its markings by amateurs later revealed it is a common office
building.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Evident-wise oversea anti-China
youtubers are just as pitiful if not more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It is mostly a video of someone speaking in front of a camera at home,
expressing his opinions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Occasionally he
will refer to and twist a recent news report, nothing but a FB
or twitter post needing more bandwidth to download.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What/who you trust more, mere words from the
MSM and anti-China youtubers, or the “pro-China” youtubers that show you
his/her </span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">actual, </span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">daily experience with videos in China? </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">NYT reporters protested,
according to social media-revealed interactions with the video makers: OK, your
videos show you walk around Xinjiang and Tibet for days, talk to people, and find nothing but peaceful life, but it is still personal experience, not the
whole picture.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is true for all
social media, but then on what ground will MSM claim they and only they give the
whole picture?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Further consider this: It
is not one foreigner, it is many foreigners, independently visiting overlapping
and diverse cities, different streets, different places, different people, in
different times.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They show you the
exact views around them, what the locals do, and the actual words from the
locals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lest we forget videos made by
</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">more </span>Chinese telling the same picture. What more credible do you need?<br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">On the other hand,
what have the MSM shown you, e.g., about Xinjiang?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Words, words, words, throwing in a handful of
videos that mean nothing or get debunked faster than you can see it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like the satellite images supposedly showing
concentration camps, or the building/concentration/forced labor camp behind a
BBC reporter?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or youtube videos showing concentration
camps far away without any evidence they are truly concentration camps?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are supposed to believe MSM words/stories
or meaningless videos without hesitation yet question the heck of real-life videos?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why are the mere words from a few recycled people, often conflicting with verifiable facts and their othern interviews, and without any physical evidence, the whole picture?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Remember Vietnam, or
Iraqis WMD?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Back then there were so many
more “experts’, so many more “witnesses”, and so much more “intelligence”,
right?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wasn’t it a slam-dunk? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">In 2002, even most anti-war folks thought Iraq had WMD, because the US produced so much evidence, thus if only 1% was true, Iraq must still have it, right? The US can't be 100% wrong, right? Now replace Iraq with Xinjiang. And the same public is still fooled.<br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The funny thing is
that, for as long as they have tried, MSM have produced exactly ZERO visual evidence of any concentration camp or forced cotton picking in Xinjiang
(and ZERO any evidence that WIV made COVID-19), while China has actually showed,
and foreigners have visited, vocational training schools (aka MSM concentration
camps), and plenty of videos, including those by the foreign
YouTuber/influencers, of ordinary cotton farms in Xinjiang.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>MSM don’t like what they show, so </span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">evidence</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> they are not. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But when MSM give you their evidence,
either blank or of even lower quality, you are supposed to swallow it unconditionally?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is MSM hypocrisy at the highest
order.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Worse?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is just the beginning.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">How about the assertions
(or wishes?) that foreign YouTuber/influencers will turn anti-China once
outside China?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, if these videos
reflect their true experiences and feelings, why would they?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed, a few have left China, and some may
not return for the foreseeable future and probably don’t have any further
obligatory connection, family or business, to China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet they don’t drop their positions like
flies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>BBC/NYT all think these people
are in only for the Chinese money, but how about the elephant in the room: in
the Western social media like youtube, anti-China is overwhelmingly dominant
and much more profitable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are a
handful foreigners who left China a few years back before all these happenings and
are now limited to spewing anti-China nonsense in their houses (again no names),
and their youtube views and subscriptions are easily 10 times higher than the
best “pro-China” youtubers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This writing
may be viewed once in 2 months, while those videos twice per second.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anti-China is a much better business, and a stronger case that they are in for the US money.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Unable to prevail on
the merits of the contents and views of the “pro-China” foreigners, BBC/NYT
then attacked from a different angle: they are supported by the Chinese
government or media!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Evidence?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, for one, you have to be pro-China to
earn Chinese social media money.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Much
has been rebutted above.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also foreigners
readily lose their eyes, ears, and brains once in China just for the puny, no
living wage according to the US standard?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">For two, the
Chinese government and state-owned media sponsored some of the
foreigners' trips in China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a red
herring talked up to prove the moral superiority of MSM but instead reveals their
utter ignorance and hypocrisy: COI happens for pro-China, but not anti-China, the
much bigger business?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Firstly, governments
around the world promote businesses and tourism and sponsor trips all the time,
the US included.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Secondly, according to
the back-and-forth with NYT, in the few sponsored trips, the Chinese government
and media provided logistics supports such as transportation, logging, and meals,
while the foreigners could do and say whatever they like during the trips and
after.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thirdly, many more take
non-sponsored trips, visit various places by themselves, and report the exact same
things in Xinjiang and Tibet!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The last salvo
from MSM is that the Chinese state-owned media use some of the foreigners’ materials
and interview some of them. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But what is wrong
here, and why is this a problem?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>According to the foreigners, the Chinese media contacted them and
behaved professionally, just like any other news organization would do,
included the American ones.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is there any
evidence that the Chinese had a hand in making the videos in the first
place?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>MSM want to insinuate, but they can't
say it because there is simply no evidence. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>MSM then hint that these foreigners make the
videos to curry favor with the Chinese government/media so that they can get
more publicity later to enhance their future earnings in the Chinese social media?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ample trashing of this question above, but
why don’t the MSM apply the same criteria to all the anti-China </span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“</span>witnesses</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">”</span>, “experts” and youtubers?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They surely have the ears of MSM and earn
much more money: won’t they tell you what you want to hear so that you will ask
him back again and again and he gains more and more exposure?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, isn’t this also what the MSM do all
the time: NYT publishes a story about a country the US doesn’t like, and the US
officials use the story to push for sanctions/wars against the country?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">MSM
are so ignorant of even their own hypocrisy</b>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The MSM would like
you to believe that they are completely independent of the governments, hence, they
are the arbiter of truth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In reality, Western
think tanks/academics, the media, the governments, and NGOs e.g. “human rights”
groups are well-known to form a closed, symbiosis and positive feedback loop.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The standard, recurring process goes like
this: The US government sponsors a lot of think tanks and “experts”, some
associated with NGOs, which produce a report the government secretly wants but
is first reported by the MSM (nowadays also the main stream social media, MSSM), the
US government then uses the MSM reports as independent evidence to prop up
public opinions for future actions, with the help of NGOs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif";"></span>To better explain why they do what they do</span>, throw in a strong dose of arrogance and
neo-racism by the elites in this closed loop: people different from us are incapable
or unworthy of understanding, producing, or enjoying the same life as we (</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;"><a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/racist-penn-law-prof-makes-220129764.html">https://www.yahoo.com/news/racist-penn-law-prof-makes-220129764.html</a>).</span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Neo-racism because many Blacks, Browns, and Asians harbor the same view as well, although plenty in the West are also opposed to it. </span><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Glenn Greenwald is 100% correct in dissing
the MSM, although he is far from the first one to do so and has a ridiculously
narrow category of MSM.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <br /></span></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: ""serif"","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In this new era MSM
and governments have already actively engaged in social media and are in the
process of corrupting it, so there is a real danger that very soon GOOG, FB, youtube,
and twitter (MSSM) will morph into the new MSM.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But for now the social media still allow regular
people’s voices, which has burst the bubble and control of MSM. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pre-social media, few “pro-China” (those foreigners are
not even really pro-China, only recording what they see in China) stories could
ever be published.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If someone talked
about China on the MSM in the 1990s, he was 95% likely in the US and anti-China
or Chinese government, as if no Chinese in the US, and in the eyes of
Westerners no Chinese in China for that matter, would have a different view.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In reality he might represent at most 5% of the
Chinese in the US, yet the rest 95% had no voice since the MSM wouldn’t report
it, after dismissing them as brainwashed or unworthy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But these people can now tell their own stories
regardless of NYT/CNN/BBC in 2020, 2021, and 2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What is more, even foreigners in China are
doing and showing the same things as those “brainwashed” Chinese.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">That,
is what the MSM can’t absolutely warp their mind around and why they are trying
their best to discredit.</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p> PS: According to official statistics, there are > 700K foreigners living in China (mainland), not including short-term tourists. But since there are essentially no foreign tourists due to COVID-19. that number is likely the final number in mainland China. If we include foreigners in HK and Macau, who often shuttle between the mainland and SARs, there are likely over 1 million foreigners, but not millions. </p>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-1885109505938358252021-12-15T18:09:00.047-08:002021-12-17T18:11:16.277-08:002021: A disappointment, or expected?<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Many things most people wished for at the end of 2020 hasn’t panned
out in 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in hindsight such an outcome
could have been predicted, or maybe the expectations had been too much to begin
with?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A major letdown is that COVID-19 is still going on, killing more
people in 2021 than in 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By Nov 2020
vaccines were coming out, and COVID-19 was no longer new, so the hope was high
in Dec 2020 for going back to normal in 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Yet 2021 finds new variants emerging, re-infections after prior
infections and vaccinations possible, and many countries letting it go, so to
speak.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The whole world still lacks a
coordinated response, allowing variants spreading like wild fires.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe the virus will stop at Omicron?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe everybody will need vaccine boosters
once every 6 months?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or bet on the new,
targeted COVID-19 drugs? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At this time there
is no clear endpoint in sight, and 2022 looks more like 2021 than 2018.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The other is that Biden has been no better than Trump delivering the
most important results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Obviously no
COVID-19 improvement, despite the fact that Biden does try harder than Trump.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Much of it can be blamed on the state and local
levels, but maybe Trump was also partially right when he said of his response:
nothing more can be done.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is indeed a systemic failure.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ditto the hostility towards China, Russia,
Iran, and others, not a single deviation from Trump.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not the Iran nuclear accord Trump pulled out,
not Cuba, not nothing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This shows at the
Deep State level, the two party system is one and the same: no more blaming the
Deep State for undermining Trump, because all was simply partisan
bickering.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Biden has picked up the China moral combat from Trump: nothing Trump did
Biden hasn’t continued or worsened.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Which
is a bipartisan effort that has nothing to do with historical consensus, facts,
or what China does, but with what the US elites think. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>Recent US accusations against China are
demonstrably, factually false and/or apply more aptly to the US than China.</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example the COVID-19 lab leak theory orgy
in May, which ended with a whimper in the Fall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But don’t worry: it will come back to life, like Lord Voldemort, in
2022.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The fabled Chinese coverup is not
far behind to explain everything the US fails: many or most people in the West
believe it, like articles in <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com">www.marketwatch.com</a>
automatically adding sentences such as “it is wildly held that China vastly
understates its statistics” whenever reporting worldwide COVID-19 cases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the authors never explain: who holds the
belief?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If many people also believe China’s
numbers, will they say this as well: “it is wildly held that China doesn’t
understate its statistics”?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Are we going
to have a global vote on that?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How vast is "vastly"? And on
what basis do they make the claim, and what numbers do they think or like the
Chinese statistics to be?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then, they
never mention that US researchers, including the CDC, have indeed reported the likely
true US statistics: well over 100 million infections and 1 million deaths, vs
the confirmed 50 million cases, and 800k deaths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course, there is the other Xinjiang and else
nonsense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In the US or the West in general, different groups of people have
different opinions of China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The most
“pro-China” group is the scientific community (natural sciences), whose
profession values truth and reasoning the most, but their numbers are minuscule.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The business class is 50/50.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some businesses are anti-China, but most are
not, yet even they stay silent for fear of attacks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The political class is strongly anti-China,
so is the media.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is a misconception
that if FOX and NBC say the same thing, it must be true.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is BS when it comes to China, because international
reporting from the media, whoever owns it doesn’t matter, all gets the cues
from the governments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is why BBC,
CNN, etc repeat the party-line Xinjiang narratives with minimal facts, while
ignoring mountains of evidence to the contrary.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Even if one discounts automatically everything China says, how about the
youtube videos Westerners made while actually visiting Xinjiang in 2020/2021: is
there anything remotely reflecting genocides or forced labor?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hell no.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Yet BBC, CNN, NYT, etc completely ignore those youtube contents, other than painting
those Westerners as paid by the Chinese government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Here is an extreme analogy or joke.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Question: Is the Sun hot?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Sun
government says it is, but since the Western media on Earth can’t go to the
Sun, we say that the Sun is not hot or its hotness can’t be independently
verified.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is despite scientific measurements
indicating, and visitors being there all saying it is hot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But because we the media are not there (or didn’t
find a cool place there so we don’t report it), we will never say it is hot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hence the public belief that the Sun is not
hot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This comparison-example is not far-fetched:
COVID-19 situations in China vs the US is like the Sun and Earth, but many Westerners
believe they are comparable, and no CNN or FOX reporters dare to say on TV in no
uncertain terms that China numbers are indeed that much better than the US. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It is funny that polls show both the US government and media have a very low
approval rating %, the media in the 20s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Yet as far the public is concerned, they all trust the propaganda about
China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All the elites do is to poison the
well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A regular guy doesn’t know or
care </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">much </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">about China, but if every story from the media says China is bad, then even
if he despises very much the government and media, he will “know” China must be
bad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No evidence or nuance is needed
regarding the next lie, and the next, just parroting on, from the government,
media, and public.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It is fitting to compare COVID-19 and WCEV (May 1, 2020 blog).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>WCEV is more dangerous than COVID-19 in terms
of its potential impacts, i.e., WWIII, and has infected more people than
COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>The No 1 WCEV symptom is
neo-racism, in both the Left and Right in the West,</b> who can’t accept,
therefore believe, China can do anything good or better than the US: <b>identifying</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><b> with a mafia is more important than with truth</b>. </span>A COVID-19 infection has a survival rate over
99%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You may be sick for a week, and
once you recover, you will be immune for at least several months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There
are also effective, free vaccines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
WCEV is like HIV: once you are infected, it is damn hard to get rid of, most carriers
for life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To cure the disease you must
do a lot of research, but there is so much mis- and dis-information already,
what do you trust?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Living in China for months to years will likely cure you of WCEV, but the most critical is that you have to realize the real problem lies at the system level: the
western political elites, media, etc.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Glenn
Greenwald is right to note don't trust the establishment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He just doesn't follow his own preaching consistently and is
easily duped, many times already, like believing Iraq WMDs and wishing Trump
would pardon whoever.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He thinks the
conservatives, like the right-wing populism, are going to
save the day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Good luck with that!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Who are these people?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Are they anti-war, or anti this war but for
that war?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Does what they do match what
they say?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Experience will tell you that most
if not all is partisan posturing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the
end of the day, once they are in power, they will be as belligerent as the
neocons or liberals and do none of those “good” things Greenwald think they
will.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is just the climate the West
is operating in and what WCEV makes you.</span></p>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">With the basic biology
and sociology of the pandemic and political environments intact, no wonder in
the most consequential ways 2021 is the same old 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But at least we live to see another year. Will
we be able to say the same next year? </span>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3380896742318527928.post-6941815218673491342021-12-07T00:05:00.156-08:002021-12-07T23:00:38.017-08:00Glenn Greenwald, an unhinged lab origin theory advocate<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">Glenn Greenwald has written one of the most twisted COVID-19 lab origin
theory articles of late (</span><a href="https://greenwald.substack.com/p/to-deny-the-lab-leak-covid-theory" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">https://greenwald.substack.com/p/to-deny-the-lab-leak-covid-theory</a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">).</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">His writing reflects an utter lack of
knowledge of science and COVID-19 (and infectious diseases in general).</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">Greenwald is a lawyer by trade, but science
is a whole different animal from law.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Greenwald’s main arguments are: 1) Peter Daszak, of the natural origin
opinion, has a conflict of interest, so he can’t be trusted; 2) the media and
Big Tech censured the talk of lab origin for the Trump factor and/or Daszak in
2020, but the tide turned because of new evidence or Biden in 2021; 3) the
recent articles in Science about the Wuhan Huanan market (<a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454">https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454</a>),
Peter Daszak (<a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/we-ve-done-nothing-wrong-ecohealth-leader-fights-charges-his-research-helped-spark-covid-19">https://www.science.org/content/article/we-ve-done-nothing-wrong-ecohealth-leader-fights-charges-his-research-helped-spark-covid-19</a>),
and the related NYT and WP articles whitewashed COVID-19 lab origin, and 4) some
scientists thought COIVD-19 originated from WIV before joining the natural
origin camp to curry favor with Fauci for money from the NIH.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Let’s debunk 2) first, which requires no scientific background. For a man who has railed against the deep
state, NSA/CIA/FBI, etc, and the media, it is astounding that Greenwald would
buy into the lab origin theory, as he can no longer hide behind the free speech
curtain and claim he just asks questions previously nobody was allowed to ask. Note that zero evidence Greenwald’s article
provides that says lab origin, as nobody can produce anything truly. For example, Greenwald wrote the media and Big
Tech changed their stand “after <i>The Wall Street Journal</i> <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/intelligence-on-sick-staff-at-wuhan-lab-fuels-debate-on-covid-19-origin-11621796228"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">reported days
earlier</span></a> that U.S. intelligence sources claim that “three researchers
from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology became sick enough in November 2019
that they sought hospital care.” ” Since
Greenwald has always professed suspicion about US intelligence, did he verify
its claim? What are the names of the
three researchers? What were they sick
of, how long did they stay at the hospital, and what were the treatments? Does Greenwald realize that November is the
flu season, so is it odd for someone to get a cold during that time? Do you know Chinese visiting hospitals is
nothing unusual and 99% stay for only a couple of hours? Perhaps Greenwald should also add right there the
latest US intelligence conclusion that “three researchers from China’s Wuhan
Institute of Virology became sick enough in November 2019 that they sought
hospital care”, EVEN IF true, is no indication of COVID-19 at WIV. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">What is more, did the media really censure the lab origin theory in 2020,
or does it depend on the definition of “media”?
US officials, exemplified by
Trump, Pompeo, and Cotton, consistently claimed lab origin and received headline
coverage. FOX, Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon,
and other platforms with huge audience had tirelessly advocated lab origin,
inviting guests such as Yan Limeng and like-minded individuals in the summer. Greenwald cares to say how many natural
origin guests received an invitation and good hearing at those shows, or even
at CNN or MSNBC? Yan’s views are so ludicrous
that even the lab origin scientists have shunned her completely, so is there any
wonder that the Big Tech acted? If there
was reduced discussion about COVID-19 origin in later 2020, that was because of
more urgent matters: the 2<sup>nd</sup> and 3<sup>rd</sup> COVID-19 waves in
the US, the election, and the fights afterwards. Then if there is an about-face in 2021, the reversal
Greenwald likes, that is only for political reasons, not for any emerging data. The scientific consensus has been that COVID-19
was natural, since Jan 2020. A few scientists
wavering or dissenting doesn’t mean there is no consensus, just like some
biologists opposing the theory of evolution.
The only thing that changes is the political consensus, media consensus,
if there was even one in 2020. NYT might
react coolly in 2020 due to Trump, but now that China is public enemy No 1
according to Biden (and Trump), should Greenwald be hyper the lab theory being
resurrected in 2021? Lastly, don’t think
for a second that the West had done nothing to probe lab origin in 2020, but
picked up the work only in 2021. <b>You can
bet all your mortgages that they have done all they can since Jan 2020, yet
with little to show for</b>; otherwise, there would have been front-page “smoking
guns” all over. Hence all the current lab
origin arguments, including Greenwald’s, target the natural origin crowd
(Daszak, Fauci, and most scientists) personally and exclusively, without
putting forwarding any evidence supporting their own theory. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Now turn
to the more knowledge-oriented topics.
1) Daszak has been the most vilified Western scientist, but the attacks
against him have never been on his scientific credentials or arguments. Instead, because he has worked with WIV, he
can’t be trusted, period. In the Science
profile (<a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/we-ve-done-nothing-wrong-ecohealth-leader-fights-charges-his-research-helped-spark-covid-19">https://www.science.org/content/article/we-ve-done-nothing-wrong-ecohealth-leader-fights-charges-his-research-helped-spark-covid-19</a>)
he answered his critics, but Greenwald won’t take no for an answer, unless, of
course, if Daszak admitted that WIV did it.
For the COI claim against Daszak in his Feb 2020 Lancet letter, Daszak explained that it was not a research paper, and the scientific community knows
full well that he has worked with WIV and published papers together over many
years. Further conveniently ignored by
the lab crowd are the letter’s judgments based on the human history and
experience with infectious diseases, which stand till this day. For the COI claim against Daszak at the WHO
team visiting China in early 2021, again conveniently brushed aside is that
Daszak is only one of the many international members of the team, and that
having someone with personal contacts and knowledge in China should have been
an asset, not a burden, unless, of course, you don’t like what he says. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">For additional
proof, Greenwald used the Intercept uncovering CoV work by Daszak and WIV. So what?
If the Intercept changes every title to “Documents find no evidence Daszak/WIV
made COVID-19”, it still describes all their reports exactly! The lab origin crowd and Intercept are
obsessed with GOF, but it is a red herring, as if GOF of any CoVs known prior
to 2019 could produce SARS-CoV-2. It can’t:
can you GOF a monkey to a human? This is
precisely why people such as Daszak, who knows CoVs and the work conducted at WIV,
are so much more believable than the lab origin crowd, even the ones with a biology background, like </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Alina Chan, Jesse
Bloom, and Richard Ebright, who have
little if any experimental experience with modern virology research. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">To cover up
the lasting failure of the lab origin theory, recently there has been a stealth
shift in the description of lab origin by the MSM, which now says that the
natural origin theory means that COVID-19 started completely in the wild, while
the lab theory means that COVID-19 passed through WIV. That includes that maybe WIV collected
samples from the wild, and then someone at WIV either got infected in the field
or at WIV. If this is the case (no
evidence either), isn’t it still completely natural, zoonotic, and supporting
the natural origin theory? So this sleight-of-hand
maneuver can’t be allowed to stand; and besides, why still harping on GOF? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Regarding
3), the contention outside Daszak is about the Science article on the Wuhan
Huanan market (<a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454">https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454</a>). It must be noted that it is not a research
paper, but <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454#pill-con"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">Michael
Worobey</span></a>’s opinion based on his analysis of early COVID-19 cases. His main point is that the earliest patient was
from the market, so COVID-19 started at the market, not WIV a distance
away. There are holes in his findings
(nothing about disease origin is simple), but the critiques are beyond the
scope of this blog, except to say that whether Worobey is right or wrong,
his method and conclusion were at least evidence-based, which is more than the
lab origin theorists can attest to in all their existence. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">For 4),
Greenwald is essentially accusing certain scientists in the natural origin camp
of scientific misconduct, because if you thought COVID-19 was man-made, and
Fauci said no, you would say no just to get research grants from Fauci later. This is mind-boggling absurdity at so many
levels. Changing one’s hypothesis based
on new evidence is the bedrock of scientific research. If you suspect man-made,
but there is no sign of human engineering in the virus, along with many other
data, are you allowed to change your opinions?
The natural origin theory has gathered increasing support since Jan 2020
(https://<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2021.08.017" target="_blank" title="Persistent link using digital object identifier"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2021.08.017</span></a>). The lab origin theory? Nil (https://<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2021.08.017" target="_blank" title="Persistent link using digital object identifier"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2021.08.017</span></a>). </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">An
HIV signature, furin sites, unique protein sequence, etc? No, nothing there. RaTG-13
was the precursor? Nonsense. Lab origin is a conspiracy theory further because
so much of it depends on the belief that China is hiding something. But what is
hidden? WIV was shut down due to a leak in 2019 (<a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/pentagon-contractors-report-on-wuhan-lab-origins-of-coronavirus-is-bogus"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.thedailybeast.com/pentagon-contractors-report-on-wuhan-lab-origins-of-coronavirus-is-bogus</span></a>)? COVID-19 surged in Wuhan in the fall 2019 based
on satellite images (<a href="https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42669767/Satellite_Images_Baidu_COVID19_manuscript_DASH.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y">https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42669767/Satellite_Images_Baidu_COVID19_manuscript_DASH.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y</a>)? Three people at WIV sick in Nov 2019? Jesse Bloom recovering “lost” virus
sequences, showing China is hiding what (<a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/06/claim-chinese-team-hid-early-sars-cov-2-sequences-stymie-origin-hunt-sparks-furor">https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/06/claim-chinese-team-hid-early-sars-cov-2-sequences-stymie-origin-hunt-sparks-furor</a>)?
The list of misfired “smoking guns” is
long. Greenwald wants Daszak and China to be saints: how can the MSM continue
to interview Daszak for all his COI? But
it serves Greenwald much better if he first checks himself and his lab origin fellows for
their countless debacles since Jan 2020: <b>they have cried “smoking guns” so many
times there are figuratively fires in their bedrooms</b>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Curiously, Greenwald has been hypercritical towards
Fauci throughout COVID-19. In fact, he
was much more vocal against Fauci than Trump in 2020 as if Fauci was more responsible
for the mess than Trump. Maybe Greenwald
favors the lab theory just to stick it to Fauci?
Fauci is far from perfect, especially if he ventures outside of science,
but any arguments with him should be based on facts, good judgment,
and sound reasoning. Some debates in the
medical community are valid and due to genuine differences in reading the evidence
and educated guesses/predictions, but almost all of the right-wing rants are
not, neither are Greenwald’s. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">For example, Fauci was revisionist about why
not recommending masks in Feb and March, 2020.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">
</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">But consider this: no Western medical authority, including WHO, was in
favor of masks at the time, the US public had no tradition of wearing masks,
few in the US were dying to wear masks at the time, and Fauci’s advice in Feb
2020 unlikely prevented anybody wanting to wear a mask from doing so.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">Thus, why the extreme hostility against
Fauci?</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;">Turn to another doctor in the US,
s/he would have told you the same thing!</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Greenwald has no idea how research funds are
rewarded: he thinks Fauci plays a deciding role in handing out money. In fact, Fauci won't even see most of the
grants his agency funds, certainly not at any significant detail at all. Any
grant proposals involving potentially dangerous materials and using mammals,
the host institutions must first approve the work and submissions. Then the independent panels at NIH will
review the proposals, next the NIH program directors will decide the funding
based on NIH budgets. Fauci just signs his name: why would he overrule reviewers' opinions? So if
Greenwald has a problem with NIH grants about CoVs or dogs, he should take it up
with the researchers, their host universities, NIH review panels, program
directors, before writing his 1000<sup>th</sup> tweets on Fauci. But why ends there? The buck stops at the Congress and Trump who
gave the money to NIH!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">After the orgy in the summer with the
COVID-19 lab origin theory, the noise has died down considerably, not because China
is no longer public enemy No 1, but because there is really nothing the US can
dig up, despite its best efforts for the past 23 months. Greenwald’s article represents a desperate attempt to
keep the dying body of that theory warm.
But </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 16px;">Greenwald</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> can rest well, because the true target is never COVID-19 but China.
The lab origin theory boils down to two
“supports”. The first is that COVID-19
was first reported in Wuhan, which houses WIV.
Greenwald going to any court with this “evidence” would be laughed out of
it. The second is that China is evil: whatever
they say, even without countering evidence, is not to be trusted. With this mentality, why trust the COVID-19 sequences China including WIV produced, which
formed the basis of all the current vaccines and PCR tests? And why trust what China said about COVID-19
testing, symptoms, patient care, mask use, etc, which formed the basis of worldwide response to COVID-19? And why trust any measures China has taken to fight COVID-19? Many people in the West believe China
has COVID-19 as bad as the US, if not worse, including Jake Tapper at CNN at
least by the end of 2020. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b>These people can be so ignorant and so confident at the same time</b>. </span>Wonder why? And see the consequences? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Greenwald doesn't
have a science background. In</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 16px;"> politics Greenwald bashes only Trump detractors while </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 16px;">ostentatiously leaving Trump bashing to others, but i</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 16px;">n science you must weight all sides of the evidence</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 16px;">. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 12pt;"> Greenwald doesn’t understand scientist
talks, either. A biologist in the natural origin
camp can still say we should study all possibilities, but it doesn't mean he sees
the lab theory supported by any data.
Most biologists accept evolution, but who says you can’t study God? There are a few scientists in the lab origin
camp just like some in the anti-evolution camp.
Maybe they have Greenwald’s ears because of his disdain for Fauci and NYT: Greenwald has neither the science background nor the critical knowledge necessary to judge, but he automatically distrusted NYT and Fauci. But it is funny that most of them claim to be agnostic: I am not really saying lab origin, I just
want to know for sure.
Right there you know they know their case is nonexistent! </span></p>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">Yet no scientific training
is no excuse, especially if Greenwald has learned his lessons and followed his
own advice. Proving the lab origin theory,
or keeping it alive, is in the national interest of the US as conventionally
understood since day 1 of COVID-19. If
Greenwald were what he claims he is critical about supposed evidence or
intelligence from the US or the media, he would be immune to Iraq
WMD, COVID-19 or other anti-China nonsense. But he had been duped before, and he is still being fooled right now, only he remains full of hot air himself, as he did in the Iraq WMD days and supported the war. Greenwald never misses an opportunity to show off his start in media/politics in criticizing Bush/Cheney's civil right abuses, yet he rarely if ever mentions the elephant in the room: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">the Iraq War. W</span>here were you when it happened?<br clear="all" style="break-before: page; mso-special-character: line-break; page-break-before: always;" /></span>SSPNhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05319212413734114335noreply@blogger.com0