Now is almost the end of 2022. Qualitatively, 2022 is the same as 2021; quantitatively, a bit different. Biden is still doing the same, cold/hot warmongering two years in a row as Trump, and no change of that in 2023 or beyond. The Russia war is an escalation but also an extension of what has been going on over there since 2014. COVID-19 is still here, albeit less deadly than in 2020 and 2021. Thanks to vaccination and Omicron, only 0.1% or less of the infected die now. Not an insignificant number, as 300-400 people die in the US every day, but societies around the world have decided it can stomach the loss, or it is not worth the extra measures to contain the virus. The only standout is China and its DZ policy, but major changes have come throughout 2022 and particularly on Nov 11, 2022 (https://china.huanqiu.com/article/4AQUNteWR5p). More opening is expected in the coming months, which will be a big positive for 2023.
The Chinese government made a big mistake of not preparing for a non-DZ policy during and after the Shanghai wave in Mar-May 2022. For one, they should have realized long ago that DZ, defined by lockdown and mass testing, is never good: bad for the economy, for people’s life and livelihood, and bad for people’s health. Widespread and prolonged DZ simply exchanges other deaths for COVID deaths. Thus, lockdowns should have been reserved for the most extreme cases, yet in 2022 it was applied liberally in many cities in China. Lockdown is no Chinese invention, for it has been used throughout human history. But city-wide RNA testing is definitively a Chinese invention, and likely the most stupid one. Then by May 2022 the government should have realized, based on data around the world as well as in Shanghai, that the current COVID-19 poses a lesser threat than before. And the widely used Chinese vaccines work, and more and newer vaccines are coming up. So at that point, China should have sped up vaccination drives. In fact China did, during the height of Shanghai episode, but it fizzled after the Shanghai wave passed. China also failed to educate the people no more fear of COVID. Hence, it was a costly waste of at least 6 months’ time in 2022.
The official media have endlessly justified DZ, leading to much of the public believing the constant danger of COVID, and the local governments strictly reinforcing DZ. The social media have more diverse views and discussion, but no major impacts policy-wise. Thus, when the Chinese central government relaxed DZ in the summer and again on Nov 11, 2022, there is no new public consensus, leading to confusion and uneven adoption at the local levels.
The confusion and resistance to the new DZ is perfectly natural, as many Chinese do support the “old” DZ, or at least accept it is a necessary evil. Only time and practice will change their mind. The 20 points (https://china.huanqiu.com/article/4AQUNteWR5p) on Nov 11, 2022 will set in over time, and the debates and application in the next 3 months will be necessary and crucial to convince the public that a new DZ, or soft DZ, whatever it is called, is coming and will stay. If anything, the 20 points will foster a healthy debate, and that alone would have been worthy enough.
As major and comprehensive as the Nov 11, 2022 items are, additional stipulations and loosening measures will surely follow. One glaring blind spot so far is the lack of nation-wide position for the public what if one is tested positive in the future. Thus, the 20 points could have been 21 points, with the 21st point actually being the most important one.
This 21st point should have the general public as the ultimate audience (the 20 points are mostly policy orders). It could inform the people, through other means in detail obviously, no more fearing COVID and panicking. It could stress the importance of vaccinations (this has been included in the other items but worth emphasizing again). It could instruct people what to do if tested positive. Like most people just stay home, no more isolation away; no need to rush to the hospitals unless the serious cases, which will be determined by medical professionals and hard physiological numbers. Some of these contents will certainly be included in future government announcements, but this 21st point has the most important task of consensus-building, and the earlier the better.
DZ has its problems, so will a new
or soft DZ, which will inevitably lead to increased infections, but not the
situation in the US, as China will continue to suppress COVID-19 and isolate
cases, only no more widespread lockdown and testing. Currently China reports 30-40K daily
infections. In 2022 there could be 3
million total infections, fewer than 1K deaths.
So in 2023 China may have 50-100 million infections, 50-100K deaths, part
of the previously natural and most overlapping with the common cold/flu deaths
(Nov 9, 2022 blog). Hard numbers won’t lie,
and nothing unusual here. Local,
sporadic reports of bad stories will emerge and be amplified if a consensus is
not formed fast enough, which is the most potentially serious problem. The bottomline is that no smooth sailing no matter
what, but the ship’s got to sail. The Chinese economy will recover. Inflation will be higher but still much less than the US in 2022. People will be happier.
Throughout 2022 many advanced countries, the US and in Europe, have reported excess deaths, ~ 10%, after counting COVID. The causes are unknown, but the indirect disruptive effects by COVID may be a big factor (Nov 1, 2022 blog). Time will tell whether excess deaths apply to countries that only report after Dec 31. How China fares will be closely watched.
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