A record for the evolving and revolving misinformation

When humans encounter something new, having questions is a universal, and often productive reaction.  Answering the questions needs gathering facts and using reason and science.  Unlike persistently peddling misinformation and lies, which reflects stupidity, malice, or both.  Once exposed, they either deny it, or hide under the disguise of free speech, equating ignorance to knowledge.  

When looking back at COVID-19, a significant area of research will be on the false propaganda by the politicians, and in the traditional and social media.  Most misinformation is against China.  An aspect of the attacks is they have different themes evolving with time, like shifting goalposts.  When the first was debunked, the same people simply move on to the next.  Thus, during a certain period of time one rumor dominated, then was replaced, some completely, by another, but never ending.  Part of it may be due to short memory and attention spans, but most is because it had never real support and was quickly squashed upon close inspection.  But there is always a market for it, so new ones will keep popping up.  And the short memory span ensures the old ones will come back to life later, as birthers never die.  So for the record, below is a summary of the misinformation, excluding the ridiculous attacks on Bill Gates and 5G. 

A. COVID-19 was made by the Wuhan lab

There are some variations of the theme, including COVID-19 was leaked by the lab, and it also relates to the origin of COVID-19 in general.  This rumor sprang up immediately in Jan and early Feb 2020, and got renewed attention in April.  My 3/28 and 4/30/20 blogs dealt with it conclusively.  Virus origin is a pure scientific issue.  The 3/28/20 blog explained it is practically impossible to identify the first infection, the first bat that carried the virus, or the intermediate host.  Many long-standing diseases still have the exact unanswered questions.  What one knows for sure is that Wuhan identified the first known cases.  But whether it started there or existed elsewhere before is unknown.  The much focused on market in Wuhan might not even be the origin after all.  Quite frankly, who knows where the bat flied from or to, or whether a precursor of the virus had infected humans somewhere before for how long.  In any case, it is a natural phenomenon happening throughout human history.

B.  China is hiding something

This is the most encompassing.  Too vague to have any meaning, but preferred by people who know nothing but parroting.  Is there anybody who isn’t hiding anything?  During the course of propaganda, though, a few specifics emerged, allowing targeted fact-checking.

1. China hid COVID-19 by silencing whistleblower Dr Li Wenliang  

Debunked in the 3/16 and 4/3/20 blogs.  Dr Li was no whistleblower.  Dr Zhang Jixian had already blew the official “whistle” a few days early, and Wuhan already notified hospitals to look out for the disease.  Dr Li wrote a message on Dec 30, 2019, which was supposed to be private. China first notified WHO on Dec 31, 2019.  Chinese news had reported it.  Dr Li was given a warning on Jan 3, 2020.   He was never suspended, fired, or arrested.  Unlike numerous people in the US (4/3/20).  It defies logic to believe China would already announce to the country and whole world, then a few days later want to hide it.  

2. China hid human-to-human transmission until Jan 20, 2020

This is a question invoked less frequently by the Western press, but debated the most exhaustively in China, the gist in my 6/2/20 blog.  It is only valid if China knew human-to-human transmission for sure yet didn’t say it, but one has to wonder, what good would that ever do?   One could always have suspicions, but there is a thing called proof.  Perhaps a simple explanation suffices: people didn’t know enough about the new disease until…?   Contrast to a few countries that knew human-to-human transmission and much more but didn’t act until March 2020?

3. China deliberately hid the infection and death figures, so the world didn’t know how dangerous COVID-19 could be

This accusation or excuse was the most frequent one by the UK and US in March, when COVID-19 outbreaks hit them (e.g., 4/1, 4/2, 4/17/2020 blogs).  It is a nonsensical argument and has died down dramatically.  For many reasons: 1. Nobody has found any evidence that the Chinese data are a big off (5/1/2020 blog).  The Chinese system of counting does have two features that are more unique but won't change the final tally much.  First is that the asymptomatic won't count as confirmed infection unless showing symptoms later.  Second is that it is not clear whether someone who underwent COVID-19 treatments, was declared free of the virus, but then died from a separate illness later counts as a COVID-19 death.  There is a Chinese media report of at least one such individual.  Again, safe to say these cases are rare.  In math terminology it is smaller than the error bar.  2. Since March 2020 China has largely and slowly reopened, and all subsequent data and activities support the official tally.  3. When the rest of the world gets a chance to count their own infections and deaths, they face the same dilemma: can anyone say his numbers are absolutely correct, and has any country not revised its numbers and continued to do so?  4. Even the most feverish advocates of China underreporting in their wildest dream can’t say China’s “real” numbers are higher than some in the West, so this accusation loses the last bit of its luster.  But it is still curious to know what the British Dr who thought most Wuhan was infected or Dr Birx thinks now.  With the highest-level government advisors like these, who needs China?  

C. China exported faulty medical supplies

Nobody can guarantee 100% in his products.  Is every iPhone shipped around the world perfect?  But only the bad gets the press, not the good, so the media gave a distorted impression at a sensitive time, especially since most supplies are made in China.  While defects are unavoidable, much or most of the complaint actually arises from disagreements in standards or importers ordering something but using it for a different purpose.  Like using an Ab kit to determine active COVID-19 infection.  This too has died down, because most countries have now overcome the worst of COVID-19 using those supplies (e.g., https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/researchers-applaud-spanish-covid-19-serological-survey-67590). 

D. China could or should have contained COVID-19 within its border

This came out of the left field in May.  The WTF moment, as it leaves any sensible person speechless.  Has any infectious disease ever been contained in any country in the history of mankind?  One could imagine it was possible if it happened in a remote island in the Pacific, but there is no record of this (if it didn’t get out we don’t know either).   Even before modern transportation humans had had many diseases sweeping the globe.   COVID-19 is a modestly transmissible disease, and much less transmissible ones have spread far and beyond.  Such as AIDS, first outbreak identified in the US, and much less infectious than COVID-19.

E. China allowed 100K traveling all around the world during COVID-19

This came out briefly in Feb and resurfaces in late May, seemingly because all else have failed the truth test.  Not sure what it means, 100K sounds a lot, but the implication?  Before Jan 23, 2020, most Chinese didn’t think they would be infected.  Obviously almost all were not and still are not.  If China prohibited traveling for no reason, isn’t that a human right violation?  After Jan 23 people from Wuhan and Hubei couldn’t leave, while the other Chinese soon faced entry bans by many countries including the US.  International flights were severely reduced.  The vast majority of the positive were from Wuhan, based on the infection data from the rest of China later.  So how many Wuhan international travelers were there among the 100K (Wuhan has ~ 1% of China’s population), with most of them still negative?  In any case, by Jan 23 the Chinese lockdown dropped Wuhan to 0.  Only exceptions were charter flights by foreign governments for their citizens.  Therefore, all the factors dictate that the actual number of Chinese travelers with COVID-19 was small.  By Feb, maybe 100 Chinese with COVID-19 were recorded overseas altogether?  They were quarantined, and close contacts monitored, almost all recovered and cleared. 

If one’s point is that one has to ban Chinese to prevent COVID-19, here are a few examples.  South Korea never has a blanket Chinese ban.  It had only 30 cases around Feb 20.  Local religious gatherings then led to the outbreak, but South Korea controlled it quickly.  Japan didn’t ban Chinese until mid March, when it had a few hundred cases excluding the cruise ship.  Now it is 17K, mostly passed from the US and other countries.  US banned on Jan 31, now it has 1.8 million.  Plainly clear that it is how effectively you test people that counts, not who these people are.  The fact of the matter is, all countries were monitoring travelers since mid-late Jan, and by Feb 20 few COVID-19 cases were identified outside China.  Considering the timelines of Wuhan lockdown, entry bans, and the 14-day incubation period of COVID-19, by Feb 20 no or few Chinese international travelers were expected to be infectious.  And from looking at virus genomes, it is obvious that most NY infections were passed from Europe, and NY infections likely contribute the most to rest of the US.  Most Canadian and Australian cases were also from the US, as are many other countries, including most in the Western hemisphere.  Blaming China is politically correct, safe, and desirable, but also wrong.

Note on June 7, 2020: The document (https://china.huanqiu.com/article/3yYHjUkECFr) gives the most comprehensive reports, including timelines and statistics, of the Chinese response to COVID-19.  Most information, if not all, had been widely and previously reported, in real time.