Men’s tennis final at the US Open

In a surprise to many, Daniil Medvedev easily beat Novak Djokovic 3:0 in the final.  Djokovic really had no chance in the match, as Medvedev even out-Novak Novak: served better, moved better, defended better, and, crucially, out-rallied Novak at the baseline.  Djokovic won at the net, but that was simply due to the fact he realized he couldn’t win elsewhere.  It didn’t make much difference anyway since Djokovic is never a serve and volley guy, and his first serve percentage was not high enough, and his second serves were not fast enough.   

Why was that?  The apparent reason is that Djokovic ran out of gas at the end.  He’d played too many give-one-take-three-set matches at the US Open, and it has been a long and historic year for him.  Sort of like Leylah Fernandez in the Women’s final.  This actually begs a deeper question: if he was only 25, could he have done it?  To dig it deeper, it goes back to the GOAT question: since he or Fed/Nadal obviously never did, and Djokovic almost achieved it only when Fed/Nadal are too old and almost out of the picture, then even if Djokovic did it, how significant is it?

At the moment Fed/Nadal/Djokovic all have unique credentials to be called the GOAT, or GOATs.  In a sense, here lies a debate between a big GOAT or a small GOAT circle, or a big HOF vs small HOF.  The small GOAT mindset is that it is better to leave GOAT designation blank than risking a new GOAT discussion coming up every 10 years. A GOAT must have staying power.

In my Aug 20, 2011 blog there are two objective criteria: overall achievements, and head-to-head records.  Fed/Nadal/Djokovic are all tied up in GS totals now, although Djokovic most likely will end up with the most.  Djokovic also has a winning record against the other two, but the advantage is minimal and reflects more on their age differences than anything else.  In essence, the big 3 are very similar.  Djokovic benefits from being the youngest, with Murray, who was supposed to seriously challenge Djokovic, which he indeed did in 2016, getting hurt after 2017 and faded away.   

The Aug 20, 2011 blog also indicated additional factors, although it is safe to emphasize one for the small GOAT mindset: a real GOAT must be obviously better than everybody else in the GOAT discussion.  Because otherwise we will find new GOAT nonstop.  Like Pete Sampras: everybody marveled at his 14 GS in 2002, but in 10 years that record was blown away by Federer, then it was quickly clear that Nadal and Djokovic would handily surpass it as well. 

Right now, and it is predicted that the big 3 won’t blow away each other eventually.  So if one prefers a small and stringent GOAT circle, it is safe to call them all GOATs, but not anyone as THE GOAT.  Because in 10 years’ time there may come a genius like Federer, but no equivalent of Nadal, then he would easily win 30 GS.  GOAT means all-time, perhaps as we foresee to our best ability at the time, but not by the time we talk about it.