The career of Lin Dan

Lin Dan announced his retirement on July 4, 2020.  With so much going on in the world right now, one can still marvel at what a legendary player.  By 2010 LD had already been considered by fans and peers as the GOAT in badminton, and my 8/15/2011 blog laid out all the reasons.  In the end he won 2 Olympics Golds, 5 World Championships, 6 All England, 2 Asian Games singles, 6 Thomas Cups, 5 Sudirman Cups, and many other titles.  If any other player had won just half of these numbers in majors, he would enter the discussion of GOAT: no one has.  LD is like Federer and Nadal in tennis combined in badminton.  In addition, in almost all sports men’s competition is tougher than women’s, see tennis, yet no female badminton player has come close to LD’s title hauls.  LD is further the only male player ranked #1 in both the old 15-point and current 21-point scoring systems, maybe even the brief 7-point system, a curious record hard to break, although the 7-point history is difficult to check right now.

Only two players can be nominally compared to LD.  One is Yang Yang (8/15/2011 blog), whose career was too short (1985-1990).  The other is Rudy Hartono, the winner of 8 AE from the late 1960s to 1970s.  The issue is that Chinese were not playing in AE until 1980s.  According to “indirect” match results the top Chinese players then were at least as competitive as Rudy.  WC started only around 1980, and OG in 1992, so the earlier generations of players were at a disadvantage in terms of title opportunities.   

All good badminton players are unique in terms of playing styles.  But LD is the most spectacular one.  He is extremely explosive, yet also does finesse.  Up until the 2008 Olympics, LD’s style was fast and furious.  He could smash and kill from everywhere in the court, and dive, retrieve, and defend seemingly every attack.  After 2009 he toyed with more controls and shuttle movements, smashing less and less over time.  All players evolve, but being equally successful at different styles was unheard of.

The consistency of LD stands out.  None better illustrates this feature than his Thomas and Sudirman Cup records.  He was the first single in most of those 11 winning teams, so tasked with playing the first match against the best players in the opposing teams, and had to set the tone, in the semis and finals, at least in the Thomas Cup.  Stakes couldn’t be higher.  All told, LD lost his match only once, to LCW.  LD never lost a team event as the first single.  Of course, LD was helped by one of the best men’s doubles of all time, FHF/CY, and excellent singles BCL and Chen Jin.  It was an injured CJ who famously won the last point against Malaysia after LD lost to LCW, saving LD’s record. 

   

The only knock on LD is that he hanged on for too long, well past his prime.  We all wish for a perfect ending like Pete Sampras playing his final game by winning the US Open in 2003.  LD’s W-L records from 2015 or 2017 dragged down his career numbers unnecessarily.  LD signed a long-term contract with Yonex, so maybe he was just playing for money till the end?  But how long did LD overstayed his welcome, so to speak?

LD came to the scene in 2001 at the age of 18.  From 2004 to 2014, for 11 years, he was the best player in the world.  From 2004 to 2008 he was ranked #1.  From 2009 to 2014 he was no better than #2 but still considered the favorite: he wasn’t ranked higher simply because he skipped many events, and when he entered any event he was still expected to win, which he did most of the time.  His final tournament as the undisputed best player in the world was 2014 Asian Games singles, when he beat LCW in the semi and Chen Long in the final.  But in 2015 and 2016 the best player became Chen Long.  In 2017 Axelsen and LCW.  Since late 2018 Kento Momota.  In 2015 and 2016 LD was still competitive but no longer the best.  After 2017 losses were common, with more and more people beating LD.  His last title at 2019 Malaysia Open was luck, as Chou Tien-chen gave the match away. 

What happened?  Well, everybody gets old.  More precisely, my 6/9/2015 blog pointed to the ultimate role of athleticism in sports.  The thesis is that among top players, differences in skill sets are minimal, so only how athletic, strong and fit, one is over a certain period of time matters.  Anybody seeing LD play instantly recognizes he was also one of the best athletes of all time.  He started from a much higher level than the rest of the field, that in 2008 Olympics he won all matches 2:0 without anybody challenging him in any way in any game, including the resounding final.  Analogous to a 400 meter race: LD rushed to a big lead by the first 100 m and then just strolled all by himself for the rest 300 m.  

But from 2010 on LD often needed 3 sets to win.  For example, in the 2012 Olympics he beat Sho Sasaki, a second-tier player, in 3, and LCW in 3 in the final.  In the 2014 Asian Games, he beat LCW and CL all in 3 sets.  Like he was edging out only in the last 50 m or 10 m in a 400 m race.  More and more people were giving LD trouble even when they still lost.  One could argue others were getting better.  But the main reason is LD slipping, relatively, because one or two players improving is feasible, but all people can’t be improving at the same time.  Since physical ability is supreme, not unique in LD’s case, any drop due to aging would be amplified, especially when LD came down from such a height.  After 2015 and 2017, with his athleticism and stamina further deteriorating, LD finally lost the ability to win long matches, and more players, the younger ones, were beating him routinely.  But why was LD no longer the best after the age of 31, when Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic are still going strong?  My 12/31/2019 blog explains this a lot.  

It is fortunate to see and have LD playing for so long.  Fighting to the end and losing is sad, but winning and losing are always part of life.  We might never see anything like this ever again.