Is Djokovic the GOAT?

Djokovic’s GS total will stay at 24 until at least 2026, after his losses to Sinner and Alcaraz in the recent 2025 GS events.  But even if the tally goes beyond 24 this year or next, based on the strict GOAT criteria (e.g., 7/19/23 blog), Djokovic is still not the Sole GOAT.  This in no way diminishes Djokovic, as we can safely say the Big 3 are the GOATs.  Only that any differences between them reflect pure luck and the randomness in nature.

In the last three GS matches against Sinner and Alcaraz, Djokovic lost pretty bad.  Against Sinner, Djokovic was playing a more hard-hitting version of himself.  Against Alcaraz in the US open semifinal, Djokovic had to paint the lines to just win a point, which worn him down quickly, just like what Sinner did.  Djokovic hit so many balls into the net, showing a sign of fatigue even in the 1^st and 2^nd sets, so in the third set he was completely spent.   Djokovic actually displayed an excellent form and played well against a tough Fritz two days ago.  It is possible that his body can no longer keep up with the GS format anymore.

Contrast to table tennis or badminton.  Fan Zhendong is also in the table tennis GOAT conversation along with Ma Long and others.  He barely plays after winning the Gold medal in the 2024 Paris Olympics.  Then he went to the German League and promptly lost two matches last week, including one to a player ranked hundreds in the world.   The difference between Fan Zhendong and Ma Long, who is the most likely GOAT candidate, is tiny.  If Fan Zhendong had had beaten Ma Long in the Tokyo Olympics (Fan ranked higher and was the favorite then), Fan would have had two Olympics Golds vs Ma’s one, and this would have shifted the GOAT discussion in Fan’s favor.  As it stands now, Ma Long is clearly ahead of anybody else, but still only barely, since one match’s different outcome would have tilted the balance.  So there is no GOAT in men’s table tennis.

But badminton is a different matter.  Lin Dan is truly a gold standard for designating GOAT.  Besides all his hardware, an interesting and remarkable feat he did was that after winning the 2012 London Olympics, he didn’t play for a year (warmups don't count).  Then he got a wild card for the World Championship in 2013.  And he won the event.  Compare this to Fan Zhendong of the German League fiasco.  Or in tennis, this is like the Big 3 breaking for a year, then coming back to win a GS.  It never happens.  The closest scenario is Seles getting to the US Open Final after her long absence following the stabbing incident.  She lost to Graf.

Viktor Axelsen matches Lin Dan the Olympics Gold category (he even has one Bronze more, beating Lin Dan in the 2016 Olympics).  Axelsen is no doubt the best in the past 4 years, but Lin Dan still has many more other stuff, like the World championship,s AE, Thomas and Sudirman Cups, etc.  The main problem with Axelsen is not that he is not dominant when he is winning, it is with his history: he lost to Kento Momota or Chen Long like 10 matches or more in a roll in his earlier years.  No one can really shake off history.  Sure, Axelsen was younger than Chen Long, but Momota is of the same age as Axelsen.  By comparison, Lin Dan didn’t lost 10 matches straight to Taufik Hidayat or Peter Gade.  In fact, Lin Dan established parity with Taufik quickly and rarely lost to Gade in his career. 

All GOAT things will come to an end.  Now we can see how many GS Sinner and Alcaraz win.