The 2025 Sudirman Cup Results

The 2025 Sudirman Cup ended with China beating South Korea 3:1.  Story-wise it is nothing remarkable.  But from the sports analytics perspective, it reveals much interesting about the nature and patterns of athletic competitions.

First the 2025 Final details:

1. Mixed Doubles: Feng Yanzhe / Huang Dongping (CHN) 2:1 vs Seo Seung-jae / Chae Yu-jung (KOR) 21–16, 17–21, 21–15

2. Women's Singles: An Se-young (KOR) 2:0 vs Wang Zhiyi (CHN) 21–17, 21–16

3. Men's Singles: Shi Yuqi (CHN) 2:0 vs Jeon Hyeok-jin (KOR) 21–5, 21–5

4. Women's Doubles: Liu Shengshu / Tan Ning (CHN) 2:0 vs Baek Ha-na / Lee So-hee (KOR) 21–14, 21–17.

Of the four matches, only the first one was competitive.  On paper, the fourth should have been as well, but why not?  L/T and B/L are both attacking players.  L/T are better at attacking, playing like Men’s Doubles pairs, while B/L have better stamina.  Their matchup favors L/T since the matches would have short rallies, with less emphasis on stamina.  Still, it could have been 2:1, or a close 2:0, yet the match was more lopsided than what 21–14, 21–17 suggested.  

The reason is what happened in the semifinals a day earlier.  B/L beat the INA WD pair 2:1 in the deciding match to secure a 3:2 victory for South Korea, after which they had less time to recover before the final.  (L/T didn’t play in the semifinal, as China won 3:0 over Japan.)  The situation B/L is in is part bad luck and part their own fault.  In the semifinal leading up to the B/L match, INA MD scored a close 2:1 victory, forcing the WD match.  This may be bad luck for South Korea, as the South Korean MD could have won to end it, but MD competitions are always fierce, and INA MDs are very strong.  But B/L could still have beaten the INA WD 2:0.  After winning the first set easily, B/L played lazy, allowing INA to attack, hoping they would make enough mistakes, but they did not.  B/L turned around only in the second half of the third set, more attacking to seal the fate.

Had B/L won by 2:0, they would have had more time to recover, albeit less energy than the completely fresh L/T.  This, now leads to interesting and nice comparison with the 2023 and 2017 Sudirman Cup.

In the 2023 Sudirman Cup, China had the toughest road (the May 22, 2023 blog), going through INA, Japan, and South Korea.  Hard fought from the Mixed Doubles and on, especially with Shi Yuqi, who played in all three matches.  Shi Yuqi beat two strong opponents, Ginting and Naraoka, earlier, but China still sent him against South Korea, a questionable move, since any Chinese MS player would have won the point, while Shi Yuqi was short of breath.  It showed later in the match, even though China eventually dodged a bullet (the May 22, 2023 blog). 

2025 was opposite.  Shi Yuqi still did all the work, but this time was much easier.  He beat LJH of Malaysia handily 2:0.  LJH was likely tired from his 2:1 win over Naraoka the day before.  Shi then beat Naraoka handily 2:0 in the semi.  Naraoka didn’t play a day earlier, but his form has dropped in 2025.  There is no argument against sending Shi out again in the Final against South Korea this time, since China needed to secure the point in anticipation of losing the WS point, and Shi did his job in a super quick fashion.  

In this sense, Shi Yuqi and China are lucky in 2025.  South Korea had less time to recover because their semi started later, but of the first three matches in the Final, the stamina issue is immaterial because the players involved either did their semi matches according to plans or didn’t play (Wang Zhiyi).  So the only complaint would have been for B/L, yet even there, bad luck was only part of the problem.

But bad luck from a sequence of events was more pronounced and consequential in the 2017 Sudirman Cup, resulting in South Korea beating China 3:2 in the Final. Like South Korea in 2025, China had a later start in semi vs Japan in 2017.  Japan was also stronger than South Korea then, so China got the harder draw.  Ultimately, Chinese loss to Korea could be traced to the first semifinal match against Japan, when Zheng Siwei/Chen Qingchen lost to Yuta Watanabe/Arisa Higashino 12–21, 21–14, 19–21.  This loss necessitated Chen Qingchen to play the 5^th, WD match, when she and Jia Yifan defeated Misaki Matsutomo/Ayaka Takahashi 21–12, 21–19.  But hours later she and Jia Yifan had to play the WD again in the Final, eventually losing to Chang Ye-na/Lee So-hee 21–19, 21–13.  A young Chen Qingchen running out of gas is the reason why she and China lost in the 2017 Final.  

So the moral here is that sports are physical in nature, often times a win and a loss are separated by the tiniest margin, influenced by pure luck and what happened yesterday.  Most casual spectators and even sports fans don’t recognize that, instead heaping unfair criticisms on their teams and players.

South Korea could argue that Seo SJ played both the Mixed and Men’s Doubles in the 2025 semi and was as tired in the Final as Chen Qingchen in 2017.  But because of South Korea’s MS situation and INA’s clever player selection, Seo SJ was bound to play two semifinal matches anyway, and whether he won or lost the second match had no bearing on his physicals in the first match in the Final.  In other words, South Korea had it in the plans and must have prepared for it already.  But Zheng Siwei/Chen Qingchen losing in the third set by 2 points in 2017 was unexpected and definitely impacted a series of things later.  If they had had won 21:19 instead losing 19:21, China would have beaten Japan 3:0, and a fresher Chen Qingchen would likely beat South Korea either in the Mixed Doubles or WD the next day.  But looking at the bright side, from 2017 on, Chen Qingchen is focused in WD, and Zheng Siwei got a new partner.  And they are both Olympics champions now.               

       

    

 

World Cup Table Tennis Macao 2024 Finals

The finals ended with SunYingsha beating Wang Manyu 4:3 (8-11, 5-11, 11-4, 5-11, 11-8, 11-5, 11-9) and Ma Long beating Lin Gaoyuan 4:3 (9-11, 9-11, 5-11, 11-8, 11-6, 11-4, 11-8).  These two matches may be the most noteworthy sporting results in the past year, not the highest for their technical and athletic prowess, but full of the drama, mental strength, and significance leading up to the Paris Olympics.

First, the men’s final.  By 2023, ML was a sure thing for the Olympics, perhaps not the singles, but certain the team event.  But throughout 2023 and the first 16 weeks of 2024 saw Liang Jingkun having much better results than ML, and a good WC would have elevated LJK over ML.  Unfortunately an early loss seriously harmed his case.  As for ML in this WC, a clear difference is that he hasn’t been so fast with his feet since 2019, a short 5 years ago!  He must have been supremely motivated.  This showed when ML beat World’s No 1 Wang Chuqin 4:0 in the semi.  ML was running left and right, in position to block every shot from WCQ, thereby ending his long losing streak to WCQ in a huge upset.

LGY is another matter.  Out for the Olympics, he is playing for honor with no pressure.  He beat World’s No 2 Fan Zhengdong in a close 4:2, then HARIMOTO Tomokazu completely 4:0.  His BH is fast, and his FH, being left-handed, curves sharply to a right-hander’s BH.  HT had no chance, suffering his most lopsided loss in years.  

In the final, LGY used the same HT playbook.  ML with his new-found speed and familiarity with teammates, perhaps handled it better than HT, but the result was the same.  LGY raced to a 3:0 lead, and it looked every bit like the same old 4:0 over ML.  Then ML made the crucial adjustments: he served with his BH, and instead of counterlooping, ML blocked from both his FH and BH, the shorter strokes.  These changes saved ML precious milliseconds in responding to LGY’s attacks.  LGY still tried to hit through ML, but his techniques or playing styles have fundamental drawbacks.  LGY’s BH is more flat hitting than top spinning: while this is harder to defend, it is also less consistent.  Once ML returned a couple of LGY’s BH, LGY would make an error.  On the FH side, LGY has a long swing, so it is not very fast, also not the strongest in power, more side spins than top spins.  If ML could handle WCQ yesterday, he could handle LGY’s FH today.  In fact, I haven’t seen ML’s BH so tough since his BH countered Zhang Jike’s BH in the 2016 Olympics Final.  

So in the last 4 games, LGY had chances only in the 4^th and 7^th games, with the consistency of ML eventually won out.  This event is only the 1st (or 2^nd?) win for ML since the 2021 Olympics in the last 3 years, a really long time.  But ML is going to the Olympics, again.  Will he play the singles?  WCQ and FZD still have the advantage, and which ML, the “old” or a rejuvenated one, turns up in 3-4 months is unknown.  Another question is: is ML the GOAT, or will this WC win makes the case over the hill?  In the stringent GOAT criteria/category (9/13/21 blog), ML is still a borderline case.  It is a single win in a long time.  Another World Championship or Olympics will do the trick, but ML may not even have the chance any more.  But this should not be viewed as a knock on ML, because he is above all his competitors in the GOAT consideration.  Only the stringency demand that this distance between ML and others be larger.

Now the women’s final.  Before the match, the World’s No 1 SYS is a lock for the Olympics singles.  So she may be too relaxed.  It showed with her 4:2 win over CHENG I-Ching.  She was slow and made a lot of errors, by her standard.  She then beat Chen Meng, World’s No 3, 4:2 in the semi.  CM is fighting for a spot in the Olympics singles, so she tried hard.  In fact, after the 2:2 tie, CM had clear leads in both the 5^th and 6^th games, only to lose in the smallest margins.  CM could have won it, but being 7 years older than SYS, may not be able to keep it up at the end.

WMY is the one competing with CM, and she had two big tests before meeting SYS, compared to CM’s one big test.  WMY beat HAYATA Hina 4:1, then HARIMOTO Miwa 4:2, while CM beat HIRANO Miu 4:0.  So both WMY and CM did the jobs, just that WMY performed better based on the sheer chance of draws.  But as a result, WMY was also more exhausted physically before meeting SYS.

At the final, WMY was a much faster and stronger player from the beginning, and the first two games SYS was no match.  By 3:1, WMY was better at FH exchages, while SYS better at BH.  This is quite a scene because SYS has the best FH in history, and WMY had the best BH in history.  WMY “had” because she is a BH orientated player, and her BH used to have the same power as others’ FH.  But not any more since 2021: while WMY’s BH still has the consistency, the power is gone, only average among the top players now.  On the other hand, she has improved her FH.  (Un)fortunately, because WMY is tall, she has a long FH swing, and she has to exert a lot of energy with the FH swings, so in many fast exchanges and matches WMY has to play harder than her opponents and scramble a lot.  

In the first two games SYS couldn’t do anything with her FH.  WMY used BH to pin SYS down at the BH corner, a well-known strategy against SYS.  When SYS forced her FH down the line, WMY was so tall that her hand was there to counter loop to SYS’s wide FH side.  SYS is short and doesn’t have the same reach as WMY.  When SYS tried harder with her FH, she made errors after errors.  Then at the third game, SYS abandoned her FH, stayed more contently at the BH corner, relying more on the BH, even smashing through WMY’s BH a couple of times.  The 4^th game WMY won because SYS couldn’t continue her previous BH pace.  The turning point is the 5^th game.  SYS’s BH again became more consistent, and FH started to come back.  She got a big lead, saw WMY catching up, and took a timeout.  WMY started to make errors.  SYS won the 5^th game.  The momentum was shifting.  WMY was too tired to continue at her top form.  SYS got a 5:1 lead in the 7^th game.  WMY being a fighter tied it at 5:5.  Then they fought to 9:9.  SYS won with her FH at match point.  

Looking back at the match, SYS making a stand at her BH side stemmed WMY’s advances and saved SYS enough time to take advantage of WMY’s lack of stamina at the end.  As the match progressed WMY was less and less able to cover her FH side, allowing SYS FH to score points later.  It is a big win at a major for SYS, especially when not at 100%.  Two things SYS needs to improve: first is her FH form.  This match saw too many FH errors and brute force even when winning, but no spin or angle variations.  The other is, why didn’t SYS hit BH down the line more?  She did it a couple of times, but the results were not optimal.  Unlike HARIMOTO Miwa’s match against WMY, she used it as a big weapon to great effect, as it changed the rallies from BH to FH exchanges, with WMY’s FH being slower and more energy consuming.  

As for WMY, she had a great tournament, ans she simply ran out of gas at the end, more as the results of draws or bad luck than anything.  But she has now edged ahead of CM for the Olympics singles spot.

For summary, both ML and SYS made changes amid matches, when the old way was not working out.  Further proof that good players are also smart players.  Just like in other sports, tennis, NBA, whatever.  Not everybody, but definitely most top players.  You can’t succeed if you don’t think fast.  Under the stressful, hot, and loud conditions, it is even harder to think straight and clearly.  Few athletes ever finish high schools, but their intrinsic intelligence rivals the best college students and doctors.  A sport is only a medium or way to see their performance as what the best human beings can achieve.   

Wimbledon 2023 and the GOAT debate

The 2023 Wimbledon ended when Carlos Alcaraz beat Novak Djokovic 3:2 in Men’s Singles Final on July 15.  Alcaraz was not in the match during the first set but reemerged afterwards.  Djokovic was visibly tired at the end of the second set and the whole third set, allowing Alcaraz to take charge, and the outcome was never really in doubt.  No matter how great Djokovic is, you can be 25 only once, and currently Djokovic’s best weapon, his mental advantage over the two generations of players after him, is no more against Alcaraz.  Alcaraz’s 60+ winners are twice of Djokovic’s.  Djokovic fought possibly as hard and well as he could under the conditions, but the contest was not as close as the score indicated.  

This brings back the old question: is Djokovic the GOAT now that he has collected 23 GS and probably more before he quits, and will Alcaraz be the GOAT?   

There is a loose GOAT view, and there is a strict GOAT view (Sept 13, 2021 blog).  In the loose view, we can always have a GOAT up to date, and annotate a new one whenever the timing is right.  In the strict view, GOAT must have staying power, must withstand the tests of time; sure, GOAT can change, but the (new) GOAT must have done something significantly different and better than everybody among peers and in history.  So the strict view will rather have no GOAT than having to crown new GOATs every 5 years.  The bar is high.

 In the strict GOAT definition, therefore, if one has to have a GOAT in men’s tennis, it will be the big 3 rather than pinpointing only one.  Considering the careers of the big 3, their GS numbers and the head-to-head records are the products of luck and age differences more than anything else such as skills.  Federer is unlucky because Nadal is left-handed.  If Nadal were right-handed, even with the same forehand topspin and athleticism, Federer would have beaten that version of Nadal.  Nadal is unlucky because he is sandwiched between Federer and Djokovic, two of his equals.  Djokovic is the luckiest of the three because he has nobody after him, and he is younger than the other two.  While Djokovic’s head-to-head records are better, they are barely above 50%, and much is due to Federer and Nadal getting old.  Same with their GS numbers.  In other words, Djokovic does no better than Federer and Nadal, the differences merely by chance.

A more objective comparison is looking at other sports.  For baseball Bath Ruth is the GOAT, any doubts are manufactured.  Track and field or at least sprints, Usain Bolt.  For the reasons, just see how much different Bath Ruth and Usain Bolt distinguished themselves among their peers, beating everybody by “miles”, and their records still in conversations today.  American football, Tom Brady.  Badminton, Lin Dan, practically the big 2 or even big 3 in tennis combined.  Were one of the big 3 getting close to 40 GS, there will be no debate in men’s tennis.  Even women’s tennis, Steffi Graf is still more the GOAT than Serena Williams.  Serena gets one more GS, but played much longer than Graf because she had the records in mind, whereas Graf retired from tennis when she lost interest and had no more goals.  But Graf was still OK to play, having lost the Wimbledon Final as essentially her last match.  Were Graf dragged on like Williams, 25 GS would be easy.  

Basketball has murky territories: Wilt for personal stats, Jordan, LeBron, or someone else?  Then in men’s table tennis, is Ma Long the GOAT?  In terms of wins and records, Ma Long is clearly above anybody else, but is it enough for distinction?  Head-to-head, check.  Winning streaks and in important matches, check.  Two Olympics Golds, Ma Long all alone.  Three straight World Championships?  One person had done it in modern era, and Wang Liqin has also three, albeit no consecutively.  From a strict GOAT standpoint, Ma Long is borderline.  If he wins one more Olympics Gold or World Championship, he will be GOAT since there is little chance another later person will match that.  But Ma Long winning another big one is not going to happen.  Have to settle that there is no GOAT before him; if there is one after him, Ma Long has set a very high bar.

A curious side issue is that why tennis players like the big 3 in their mid 30s still dominate younger players, yet great badminton and table tennis players cannot.  Even Lin Dan was no GOAT caliber when he was over 30.  An answer is the serves.  In tennis you can serve big and score an easy point, saving you a lot of energy.  The relative long breaks in games and points help, too.  But serves are a nonissue in badminton, as you win by rallying, which requires stamina, “old” guys lagging behind young guns.  Further, you don’t have much time between points to rest.  Table tennis has the no hidden serve rule, eliminating much the advantage from the old days.  And even more than badminton and tennis, table tennis demands fast reflexes, youth always trumps aged.  Of the big 3 in tennis, Federer and Djokovic have good serves, which is why they have aged better than Nadal.  

Back to the question: will Alcaraz be the GOAT?  The mere fact that Alcaraz enters the discussion is astounding.  After the big 3 it is hard to imagine anyone will ever be as good, but so quickly came Alcaraz since 2022, who clearly combines the best of the big 3, some areas even better.  His both wings are as balanced as Djokovic, but he runs as willingly and fast and his forehand as strong as Nadal.  Then even at full speed he hits shots as naturally as Federer. So much power and so much touch and feel at the same time.  Alcaraz even has the best drop shots and the best lobs in the game.  You see good drop shots, and you see good lobs, but never from the same player.  Until Alcaraz.

The answer is wait 10 years and we will tell.  A lot can happen, like injuries, etc.  At this point he needs more experience, like knowing when not to run down every ball.  But by 2033 if Alcaraz is close to 30 GS he will sure be the single person GOAT.